The Action Network: Best race-day bets for Road America
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The NASCAR Cup Series is in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin, for the Kwik Trip 250 presented by Jockey Made in America at Road America (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
This is the third road-course race of the year and the second time in recent years the Cup Series has visited the 4.048-mile high-speed track.
Add in practice and qualifying, and there’s plenty of data to work with to handicap Sunday’s race.
Let’s dive into the best bets for the Kwik Trip 250 at Road America.
RELATED: Updated odds for Road America | Practice/qualifying results
NASCAR at Road America Picks
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Ross Chastain +1000 to win
Chastain has been the second-fastest car in average green-flag speed ranking at road courses this year, behind only teammate Daniel Suárez.
Chastain’s maiden Cup Series win came at the first road-course race this year at Circuit of The Americas (COTA).
He also posted the third-fastest single-lap average in practice. While he didn’t make a five-lap run, he’s not known for making long runs in practice.
Instead, he had the fastest overall average speed in practice.
He lengthened from +850 to +1000 odds after qualifying simply because of his 12th-place starting position. However, he should have faster race speed and makes for a nice value play off the favorites.
My model has Chastain winning 12.1% of the time, compared to 9.1% implied odds.
The Bet: Ross Chastain to Win +1000 (FanDuel) | Bet to: +900
Austin Cindric +210 to win Group 2
FanDuel has three group bets available for betting. Of those, Austin Cindric in Group 2 presents nice value.
Here’s the group he is a part of:
Martin Truex Jr. +230
Ryan Blaney +250
Denny Hamlin +270
Austin Cindric +210
For starters, the same group is available at DraftKings, where Cindric is a +130 favorite.
Further, the road-course races this year, plus Road America last year, all bode well for Cindric’s performance.
Cindric was very fast at COTA earlier this year, clocking the fourth-best average green-flag speed. He backed that up with the ninth-fastest car at Sonoma Raceway.
Last year at Road America, Cindric ran near the front and even took the lead before breaking an axle on Lap 35.
Cindric was also fourth in practice and third in five-lap average. He will start fifth.
Meanwhile, the two Toyotas in this group, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr., have not cracked the top 10 in average green-flag speed, average running position or any practice metrics.
Hamlin and Truex will start 14th and 15th, respectively.
That leaves us with Ryan Blaney, who was seventh in five-lap average, but qualified a lowly 19th.
My model has Cindric winning this group 33.5% of the time compared to 27.0% implied odds.
The Bet: Austin Cindric to Win Group 2 +210 | Bet to: +210
Chris Buescher top-three finish +725
The Kambi books feature this generous +725 number on Buescher to finish inside the top three.
Once again, if we compare this line to other books, we see clear value.
FanDuel has this listed at +600, which is still value per my numbers. Meanwhile, DraftKings (+550), Caesars (+550) and BetMGM (+525) come in even stingier.
Buescher is coming off of a runner-up finish at the most recent road-course race at Sonoma. With only a week off, then a race at Nashville Superspeedway between Sonoma and Sunday’s race, teams won’t have much time to upgrade their road-course packages.
That reflects on-track already this weekend, where Buescher was sixth in practice and seventh in qualifying.
Reportedly, Buescher and RFK Racing found something at the Watkins Glen International test, which showed at Sonoma, where both drivers finished inside the top 10.
With both cars once again showing speed, I feel confident in my model’s 15.8% implied odds aren’t an overestimate. That beats the 12.1% implied odds at +725.
The Bet: Chris Buescher Top-3 Finish +725 | Bet to: +600
