Week 3 Fantasy Players who will sink or swim because of offensive line play
By John Evans
Special to Yahoo Sports
In the NFL, much is decided in the trenches, in the mud and grass (or, less romantically, on the artificial turf). An offense’s ability to run the ball and protect the passer greatly depends on the large men going toe-to-toe with their (often larger) opposites across from them. This weekly struggle greatly impacts the numbers that appear in your fantasy team’s box score, so understanding it can make your decisions easier and more successful.
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers
Through two games, Green Bay’s offensive line hasn’t done a great job creating running room for Jamaal Williams. However, the Packers have played Minnesota and Chicago, two of the toughest defenses in the NFL, and their Week 3 opponent gave up Arizona’s only six points and then lost to the Colts 21-9. The Washington Redskins are no cream puff by any means, but they’re currently ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ rush defense metric and only eight teams have allowed a more generous yards-per-carry average.
This week, coach Mike McCarthy said that he favors the run when on the road. With that in mind, Green Bay may take it easy on Aaron Rodgers’ sore knee and lean on the ground game. This o-line hasn’t played up to its potential yet. Last year they provided Packer backs with a league-best two yards before contact on their carries and were particularly effective on inside zone runs. Guard Justin McCray — a question mark entering the year — has actually played better than expected so far, especially on running plays. This is the week the Pack gets back on track.
If you favor the dynamic Aaron Jones, this analysis should boost your confidence in him. I’m in the camp who believes Williams will get a normal workload here, give or take a couple of carries, so Jones would have to do his damage on limited touches. His coach has said as much, calling Jones’ Week 3 role “secondary.” He’s certainly capable of breaking big runs, but it’s a risky play for fantasy players. At least for one more week, the admittedly less-exciting Williams is the better bet.
Alex Collins, Baltimore Ravens
If you’ve been reading my offensive line series since August you’ll know I’ve been a proponent of the Baltimore line and Alex Collins as a fantasy play. This was a strong unit last year and its arrow seemed to be pointing up. Much to my chagrin, Collins’ carry total is a meager 16 after two games and the o-line has disappointed in clashes with Buffalo and Cincinnati’s fronts. Baltimore is 26th in Football Outsiders’ run-blocking metric and have been particularly inept on left-side plays, where guard Alex Lewis and tackle Ronnie Stanley are struggling to open lanes.
This week’s home date with Denver is a tough draw for Collins. Something that has carried over from 2017 is Denver’s stern run defense. With the Broncos’ new-look secondary springing leaks against the likes of Seattle and Oakland, Joe Flacco is likely to continue his pass-happy ways rather than feed the ball to Collins. It’s possible that the Ravens’ often-stifling defense shuts down the Broncos, creating a grind-it-out game script for Collins, but another big day from Emmanuel Sanders or a Collins fumble may put the spotlight on Javorius Allen yet again. In a tough matchup like this one, I’m in “prove it” mode with Collins and awaiting a firmer commitment to Baltimore’s best back.
DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The FitzMagic Show has been one of the league’s most wonderful sources of entertainment thus far, and Tampa Bay’s offensive line deserves some of the credit. Through two games they’ve allowed two sacks and rank 7th in Football Outsiders’ pass protection metric. Left guard Ali Marpet looks to have taken his game to another level in his fourth season. More can be expected from new center Ryan Jensen, who is a better player than he’s shown through two games. In Week 3’s Monday night finale Marpet will help Jensen fend off Pittsburgh’s Cameron Heyward. Against Cleveland, the Steelers’ T.J. Watt did a more than passable impression of prime J.J., though he was much quieter against Kansas City. To hassle Fitzpatrick, Watt will have to get past right tackle Demar Dotson and tight end O.J. Howard. Both are superb pass blockers. Based on this matchup in the trenches and Fitzpatrick’s quick feet in the pocket, the quarterback should have time to let deeper routes develop downfield.
QB streamers will be starting the red-hot journeyman here, but many fantasy gamers are wary of DeSean Jackson, the definition of a boom-bust play for most of his career, and Chris Godwin, a precocious sophomore. Though the probable return of Joe Haden is a boost to Pittsburgh’s depleted cornerback group, he isn’t the shutdown corner he once was. Jackson and Godwin shouldn’t have trouble getting open against this easily splintered secondary. The Steelers have surrendered the most touchdown passes in the league (six). They’ve been generous to the big guys, too, making O.J. Howard a fine start in today’s depleted TE landscape.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Last year’s QB1 in most fantasy formats is currently No.14. While Wilson has started seasons slowly before, I don’t see the turnaround beginning in Seattle’s home opener. The prodigious passer faces one of the NFL’s hottest assemblage of sack artists in the Dallas Cowboys. Their defensive tackles have provided ample interior pressure, combining for three QB takedowns. While Seahawks’ center Justin Britt is rock-solid he may not be healthy enough to play, and guard Ethan Pocic is almost certainly out. D.J. Fluker can fill in for Pocic, but his biggest contribution comes in the running game. If testing their shallow o-line depth wasn’t scary enough for Seattle, right tackle Germain Ifedi is really struggling and that’s putting it kindly. His main adversary this week? Demarcus Lawrence. Lawrence is likely to continue on a tear that began in 2017, when he amassed 15 sacks.
Even if Wilson’s famed maneuverability gives him time to throw, the back end of the Dallas defense is no joke either. The Cowboys have permitted one TD pass so far and only six teams have allowed fewer yards per pass attempt. While Wilson has made do with poor pass protection for years now, the absence of Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham is making it harder for him to practice his playmaking wizardry. This is a week to find other options at QB.
