Our 5 best Week 18 NFL against the spread bets, plus one total to bet on

The 2023-24 NFL regular season concludes this weekend with all 32 teams taking the field this Sunday for the final time until September.

After a hot start with the Browns covering the touchdown spread against the Jets last Thursday night, it was a tough weekend for yours truly as I finished Week 17 with a 2-4 record.

With only one week remaining, here’s how I’ve done so far leading up to Week 18:

2023 record: 49-52-2

Against the spread: 41-43-2

Bonus Bets: 8-9

With massive playoff implications around the league, here are my five best bets against the spread, and one total to wager on for the final week of the season:

Houston Texans (+1) vs. Indianapolis Colts 

We begin the week with one of two AFC divisional matchups taking place ]Saturday night.

The AFC South is wide open with every team except the Tennessee Titans having a chance to claim the division crown this weekend.

With three teams at 9-7, it’s up for the taking.

In Week 17, the Texans found their groove in defeating the Titans, 26-3, as rookie QB C.J. Stroud returned from his two-game absence.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis nearly blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead to the Raiders but hung on for a 23-20 victory at home.

With Stroud back under center, I believe Houston takes advantage of a Colts defense that’s surrendered the sixth-most points per game (24.5 PPG) this season and has allowed 28 or more points in three of their last five.

I think we do get a great game between two teams vying for a division title/playoff spot but ultimately the Texans get the job done on the road.

After opening as underdogs, Caesars Sportsbook is the only option to get the Texans’ not as a favorite at +1 on the spread with a price of -110 (Bet $110 to win $100).

New England Patriots (-2) vs. NY Jets 

Unlike the Texans-Colts, this age-old AFC East matchup has a lot on the line for different reasons.

The Jets and Patriots are both the clear bottom-dwellers of the division this season, meaning there’s a ton at stake in positioning themselves for the 2024 NFL Draft.

Per Tankathon.com, New England (4-12) currently owns the third overall pick in April, while the Jets are slotted with the eighth selection (they are the only team at 6-10 heading into the weekend).

Even though they can’t leapfrog the Pats, the Jets could potentially get as high as the No. 5 overall pick with a lot of help on Sunday.

On the other hand, there’s a better chance New England could get the second-overall pick with a loss and a win by the Commanders over the Cowboys.

Is this potentially the best chance the Jets have post-Tom Brady era to win in Foxboro for the first time in the regular season since November 2008? Potentially. However, as bad as both offenses have been this year, I’d rather lay the points with the less-than-a-field-goal favorite New England team at home than bet on the Jets going into Gillette Stadium and ending their 15-game losing streak versus their division rival.

DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM are the only sportsbooks that have the Patriots as a two-point favorite with a price of -110 on the spread.

Green Bay Packers (-3) vs. Chicago Bears 

Both teams are coming off arguably their best performances of the season last weekend.

The Packers dominated the Vikings, 33-10, in Minnesota on Sunday night, while the Bears won wire-to-wire in a 37-17 rout of the Falcons.

Now, is it highly unlikely both offenses stay as hot as they’ve been the past two weeks? Absolutely.

Chicago’s run defense has been dominant not only over its prior five games, but currently leads the league in fewest yards given up on the ground this season at 84 yards per game.

While I believe the Bears will keep it close, I just can’t bet against Packers QB Jordan Love right now, who’s been red hot over the last seven games, throwing for 16 touchdowns and only one interception.

After a tumultuous 3-6 start, a win by the Packers will give them a spot in the playoffs in the first season with Love under center in the post-Rodgers era in Green Bay.

Multiple sportsbooks have the Packers at -110 as the cheapest price for them to cover as a field-goal favorite.

Dallas Cowboys (-13) vs. Washington Commanders

The biggest spread in Week 18 is here with Dallas as nearly a two-touchdown favorite on the road.

After a scorching 10-3 start, the Cowboys have cooled down a bit, losing two of their previous three games and escaping last Saturday night with a 20-19 win at home over the NFC North champion Lions.

Dallas has failed to cover in four of its last five games, and is 3-5 against the spread (ATS) away from AT&T Stadium.

With that being said, there’s no better matchup for a stuck-in-the-mud Cowboys offense than a date with Washington.

The Commanders have conceded a league-worst 30 points per game and just allowed the 49ers to put up almost 30 points without front-runner for Offensive Player of the Year in RB Christian McCaffrey available for a majority of the game.

Washington has failed to cover at home this season (0-6-1 ATS) and has lost seven of eight games at FedEx Field with all but one of those opponents scoring fewer than 27 points.

Needing just a victory to clinch the NFC East title, the Cowboys take this one with ease as they roll over the Commanders and earn their fifth division crown over the past decade.

PointsBet is one of a handful of sportsbooks that currently has Dallas as a 13-point favorite and a price of -110 to cover this double-digit spread.

Buffalo Bills (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins

The final game of the Week 18 slate is Sunday night in South Beach as the Dolphins host the Bills for a winner-take-all AFC East crown.

In reality, this game means so much more to the Bills than it does the Dolphins. While Miami has already clinched a playoff spot, Buffalo has not.

There’s a chance if the Bills lose and other contending AFC teams win, they would be out of the playoffs for the first time since 2018 in QB Josh Allen’s rookie year.

However, all the Bills need to do is win and they’ll clinch the division title and move the Dolphins all the way down to the No. 6 seed.

The trends for this season would likely persuade you to take the points with Miami here as a home underdog as its 6-2-1 ATS at Hard Rock Stadium.

But, in the crushing 59-16 loss to the Ravens, not only did the Dolphins lose the opportunity for the top-seed in the AFC but they’ll now will be without Bradley Chubb, who leads the team with 11 sacks, as he tore his ACL on Sunday when the game was already out of reach.

I do expect the Dolphins to put up a better fight with the likely return of WR Jaylen Waddle to the offense. Although, in the end, the loss of Chubb and former first-round pick in linebacker Jaelan Phillips on defense will be too much for Miami to overcome as Buffalo wins its fourth consecutive division title.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the best available price of -109 (Bet $109 to net $100) for the Bills to cover the field-goal spread.

Bonus Bet: Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints UNDER 42.5 points (-110)

Two of the best teams to the under this season meet with an NFC South title on the line in the Big Easy.

The Saints and Falcons have combined to go below the total in 66 percent of their matchups or for better terms in 21 of their 32 games.

Neither team has a scoring offense ranked higher than 14th in the NFL, and each provides a scoring defense inside the top-10 in the league.

If that wasn’t enough, this matchup has gone under in seven of the prior 10 meetings, and the first meeting this season had just 39 combined points scored.

I’m betting we see yet another low-scoring, defensive-driven game between these rivals as there’s 42 or fewer points scored come Sunday in the Caesars Superdome. Bet365, Caesars and FanDuel Sportsbook all have the highest available number for this over/under a 42.5 points and a line of -110.

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Week 18 NFL against the spread picks and one total to bet on