5 Best College Football Bowl Predictions Against The Spread December 21-24 Games
5 best predictions for this the early bowls. What are the best bets and picks for the bowl games from December 21st through the 24th?
5 Best College Football Bowl Predictions December 21-24 Games
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Bowls Dec 20-27 | Dec 28-Jan 2, NY6, CFP
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Results So Far: 76-66-1
Bowl Season: 2-3
My goal was hit 3-for-5 in the first round of the 5 Best Bowl Predictions Against The Spread.
I roped two doubles off of fat beach balls down the middle of the plate – the over on the Celebration Bowl and the under on whatever the hell that Fenway Bowl between Louisville and Cincinnati was – and I hit a rocket shot for a hard out with UAB and Miami University coming two yards away from the over.
However, I’m shaken by looking at a called strike three right down the middle of the plate thinking Florida would give Oregon State a game in the Las Vegas, and one of my sure things of the bowl season – Boise State destroying North Texas in the Frisco – was an embarrassing strikeout with a pulled muscle at the end.
I apologize for not pumping up one of the easiest calls of the bunch – Marshall over UConn by 10.5 in the Myrtle Beach – so I’ll try to make up for it with this round of seven bowls to choose from between December 21st and December 24th.
Oh, but I only need one of them for two of the picks.
Happy Holidays everyone. Seriously. You and everyone else deserve to kick back, eat way too much, and watch a whole lot of mediocre football for next several days.
I’m tired of joking around. I’m getting these five right starting with …
Click on each game for the game preview
5. Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs Baylor
Thursday, December 22, 7:30, ESPN
ATS Line Baylor -4
Pick Air Force
I’m not going to get into the why on this from a technical game analysis standpoint. Let’s make it simple.
Air Force and head coach Troy Calhoun are terrific in bowl games.
Calhoun had a bit of a rough start in his long tenure going 2-4 in these things, but since taking out Western Michigan in your 2014 Famous Idaho Potato, he and the program have gone 4-1 winning three straight including the last two against Power Fivers Louisville and Washington State.
Air Force doesn’t have anyone of note taking off or transferring, and the losses for Baylor are relatively minimal. However, the Bears did shake up the coaching staff a bit firing defensive coordinator Ron Roberts. That might not be a plus for Air Force, though, for one big reason.
Baylor head coach Dave Aranda appears to be handling the defensive coaching duties, and that’s why I’m not going overboard here. He’s way too good.
On the flip side, there’s a lot of fixing to do for a defense that was miserable at coming up with third down stops and didn’t generate enough pressure up front. There’s that, and Baylor needs to control the clock and the tempo – no one controls the clock and the tempo against Air Force.
All of that, and Air Force should be relatively healthy. When this team had all the parts, it worked. When it was banged up, it struggled.
Again, I’m not 1000% in love with this – Air Force came up with a whole lot of wins against a whole lot of bad teams – but I’m in deep like. So let’s try this …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 4: R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
4. R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: South Alabama vs WKU
Wednesday, December 21, 9:00, ESPN
ATS Line South Alabama -4.5
Pick South Alabama
This is called massaging the bowl pick. If this was mid-October I wouldn’t be touching this.
WKU has too much offense, it has the ability to go off and hang a huge number on the board if it gets going, and …
It’s not like it beat anyone.
Middle Tennessee and UAB are the only real bowl teams it took down – I’m only half including five-win Rice that got a bowl bid thanks to past teams that went to class. It lost to Troy from the Sun Belt and got walloped by North Texas.
All that, and it’s missing a TON of players.
QB Austin Reed was gone – supposedly to Louisville – until he wasn’t, and now he’s back and all is right with the world. However, the defense that couldn’t afford to lose a lot has to replace a slew of parts to the transfer portal, the receiving corps took a hit, and on the flip side, a rock-solid South Alabama team’s losses were minimal.
By the way, South Alabama lost two games this year. 32-31 to UCLA in a battle it came this close to pulling off if it hadn’t screwed it up, and 10-6 in a weeknight brawl with a terrific Sun Belt champion Troy team that won its bowl game.
The Sun Belt is 3-0 in these bowl things so far. The rest and close-to-all-full Jaguars should add to the winning mix. Giving away 4.5 isn’t enough to be scared off.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 3: RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
3. RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty vs Toledo
Tuesday, December 20, 3:30, ESPN
ATS Line Toledo -3.5
Pick Liberty
You remember how I picked Air Force because it’s solid at doing the bowl thing? Yeah … good times.
That’s part of the reason why I’m picking Liberty. Toledo is awful in bowls lately.
It was so good for a stretch in the early 2010s, but then it got bad with four straight losses and all to Group of Five programs. Toledo has played 19 bowls and never beat a Power Five program, but to be fair, the only opportunity was the 2002 Motor City, and Boston College hung over half a hundred on the board.
On the other side, Liberty is 3-0 in bowls. All three wins were under Hugh Freeze. who’s another reason why I’m picking Liberty. He’s gone.
The Flames had a whole lot of injuries over the second half in the year, but a team this good doesn’t get walloped at home by New Mexico State 49-14 if the 100% full focus is there.
Liberty loses a bunch to the transfer portal – along with its head coach – but not enough to get into a twist over.
This should be more like the Liberty that pushed Virginia Tech in a tough late loss, destroyed BYU, and gave Wake Forest a heck of scare. Give me this team and the points.
And now for the off-the-rails portion of the program, and it’s a two-parter.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 2 Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
2. Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Houston vs Louisiana
Saturday, December 23, 3:00, ESPN
ATS Line Houston -7
Pick Houston
I’m about to go on a journey here. It’s not going to be for everyone, but if you’ve got the grit, there might be something amazing on the other side.
You want to talk about the flakiest of the flaky – present company politely excluded – I give you the Houston Cougars both in bowl games and in the regular season.
Houston has been next-level weird in bowls over the last five years – I think Army just scored again in the 70-14 squeaker in the 2018 Armed Forces. It lost four straight, and then, from out of nowhere, it came up with a brilliant late drive to take down Auburn in last year’s Birmingham.
On this journey, I’m hitching my wagon to Cougar head coach Dana Holgorsen, who went 1-5 in bowls at West Virginia after his phenomenal 2011 season with an Orange Bowl win. If it wasn’t for QB Clayton Tune bailing the team out against AU, Holgorsen would be on a 1-7 bowl streak.
And then there’s this season. The Cougars couldn’t seem to find a win they didn’t try really, really hard to give away.
Just when they got past the weirdness and played like they were supposed to in a late November 42-3 blasting of East Carolina, they lost at home to a mediocre Tulsa squad.
You’ve come this far and now you don’t have the stomach for it? I warned you.
So why am I all in with Houston? I don’t buy into Louisiana at all.
That cost me with my Boise State pick – that was as much about not liking North Texas after a coaching change.
The Ragin’ Cajuns were able to rip through a solid Georgia Southern team, and they held their own against Troy. But they played one Power Five team and were blasted by Florida State 49-17. Houston will be P5 next year in the Big 12, but it’s close enough.
And then there are the missing parts. Houston doesn’t have as many as it probably should considering the NFL talent on the roster. Louisiana’s missing pieces, though – especially DE Andre Jones and WR Michael Jefferson – really hurt, even though there aren’t many of them.
Oh, you think we’re done after all this meandering gibberish?
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 1 MORE Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
1. Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Houston vs Louisiana
Saturday, December 23, 3:00, ESPN
POINT TOTAL 56.5
PICK Over
I’ll cut to the chase after rambling for too long on No. 2.
Houston might score 56.5 by itself. At least it should take down a chunk of it. Even when it’s bad it scores 30 points.
How many Houston Cougar games went past 56.5 points? Ten of the 12, and it scored 42 in one of the games that didn’t – 42-3 over East Carolina – and the other came against Tulane’s good defense in a 27-24 loss.
Louisiana’s defense hasn’t been bad. One really good offensive team it faced – Georgia Southern – was held to 17 points. The point total still got to 53. The other good attack it dealt with was Florida State, and it scored 49 with the total getting to 66.
And then there’s the Houston defense. You know, the one that was on the losing side of a 77-63 game against SMU.
Navy scored 20 on the Cougars – that’s probably all you need out of Louisiana. Rice put up 27. USF scored 27. Freaking Temple made it a fight in a 43-36 loss.
One final thing – the weather. As I keep instructing everyone, ALWAYS check it before going with a point total.
Shreveport, Louisiana on Saturday will be cold, but relatively clear. It won’t be a problem.
Happy holidays.
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Bowls Dec 20-27 | NFL Week 16
