2024 undervalued players
Here are all of my favorite picks for 2024, likely first- and second-rounders excluded. Players are listed along with their rankings from the Rotoworld Draft Guide, their Yahoo ADPs from the last week and their NFBC ADPs from the last two weeks.
First basemen
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 18th in Top 600 - 28 in Yahoo - 31 in NFBC
Josh Naylor - 73rd in Top 600 - 135 in Yahoo - 128 in NFBC
Triston Casas - 80th in Top 600 - 94 in Yahoo - 92 in NFBC
Vinnie Pasquantino - 105th in Top 600 - 177 in Yahoo - 166 in NFBC
Andrew Vaughn - 175th in Top 600 - 254 in Yahoo - 240 in NFBC
It’s understandable that people are down on Guerrero after a second straight disappointing season, but the way I see it, his 2023 was less discouraging than his 2022. His groundball rate was far better, nearly back to where it was during his 48-homer season in 2021. His strikeout rate was the lowest of his career. Statcast thinks he should have hit .299 and slugged .503, instead of his actual .264 and .444 marks. It’s fine to be skeptical of that, but it’s the first time in his career that he underachieved his Statcast numbers. He’s also had quite the encouraging spring so far, though I’ve yet to move him up at all based on that.
Naylor should be here to stay as a .280-.290 hitter with 25-homer ability, and he even swiped 10 bases last year. He comes at a discount because of his injury history, but I’m not bothered by it. ... Pasquantino was typically going in the 90-100 range a year ago. I guess there’s some concern that his power won’t come all of the way back after shoulder surgery, but he says he’s back to 100 percent and he’ll be part of a pretty good quartet at the top of the Kansas City lineup.
Second basemen
Nico Hoerner - 46th in Top 600 - 66 in Yahoo - 59 in NFBC
Ketel Marte - 94th in Top 600 - 121 in Yahoo - 113 in NFBC
Brendan Donovan - 189th in Top 600 - 247 in Yahoo - 289 in NFBC
Ryan McMahon - 191st in Top 600 - 250 in Yahoo - 227 in NFBC
Brendan Rodgers - 193rd in Top 600 - N/A in Yahoo - 460 in NFBC
Second base is not my favorite position this year, but there is a huge caveat; Chrisopher Morel, one of my very favorite players, has eligibility here in Yahoo leagues. I have Morel 67th in the top 600 with outfield and looming third base eligibility; making him second base eligible would push him up a few more spots. His Yahoo ADP is 171. No one trusts him to hit for average, but his career .241 mark isn’t too bad, and he’s quite capable of hitting 30 homers and contributing in the other three categories.
In non-Yahoo leagues, I’m good with waiting until the end to address second base. I don’t entirely trust Rodgers, but he will be playing in Coors half of the time and batting cleanup. Donovan is getting overlooked somewhat; he combined for just seven homers and steals in 126 games as a rookie in 2022, but he was up to 16 in 95 games before getting shut down and undergoing elbow surgery last year.
Third basemen
Maikel Garcia - 61st in Top 600 - 218 in Yahoo - 211 in NFBC
Josh Jung - 77th in Top 600 - 111 in Yahoo - 131 in NFBC
Jeimer Candelario - 113th in Top 600 - 230 in Yahoo - 202 in NFBC
Ke’Bryan Hayes - 133rd in Top 600 - 199 in Yahoo - 161 in NFBC
Coming off a solid but seemingly unremarkable rookie campaign in which he hit .272/.323/.358, Garcia is my single favorite pick this year. The 93rd-percentile hard-hit rate has a lot to do it, and while Garcia’s strikeout rate was no better than average last year, his contract numbers were, suggesting that it should come down as a sophomore. The Royals mostly had him lead off in front of Bobby Witt Jr. last year, and while they haven’t committed to doing the same this season, I expect that it will happen again. I see Garcia hitting .280 with 15-18 homers and another 20 steals or so (he was 23-for-30 last year). He could also rank among the league leaders in plate appearances, helping with the runs and RBI. The top-tier upside isn’t there, but the total package should be plenty valuable.
Jung was going to hit 28-30 homers as a rookie if he didn’t get hurt, and I see no reason to suspect he’ll be worse this season. ... Candelario isn’t someone I’d be high on if he’d signed with a team other than the Reds, but Great American Ballpark is fantastic for right-handed power and he’s going to be playing every day and batting in the middle of the order.
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Shortstops
Bo Bichette - 19th in Top 600 - 34 in Yahoo - 38 in NFBC
Elly De La Cruz - 20th in Top 600 - 32 in Yahoo - 24 in NFBC
CJ Abrams - 33rd in Top 600 - 45 in Yahoo - 37 in NFBC
Oneil Cruz - 37th in Top 600 - 69 in Yahoo - 59 in NFBC
Trevor Story - 99th in Top 600 - 227 in Yahoo - 180 in NFBC
Bichette’s fantasy stats definitely fell off last year, but he’s just as good of a hitter as ever and the Jays should wind up with a better offense, even if they didn’t do a great job of addressing the bottom half of the lineup. ... De La Cruz is still one of the riskiest picks out there, but the Noelvi Marte suspension drastically cut down on the chances of an early slump getting him demoted, he’s had a fine spring and he’s probably going to wind up batting second in a terrific situation for hitters. First-round value is very much on the table.
That said, it’s Oneil Cruz who is my favorite pick here; he’s fully recovered from last year’s broken fibula and showing it with five homers through nine games this spring. A 20 HR-20 SB season seems likely to me, and 30-30 can’t be ruled out.
Catchers
Logan O’Hoppe - 240th in Top 600 - 215 in Yahoo - 151 in NFBC
Gabriel Moreno - 254th in Top 600 - 193 in Yahoo - 154 in NFBC
Mitch Garver - 275th in Top 600 - 226 in Yahoo - 171 in NFBC
Pass.
If you’re in a 12-team, one-catcher league, one of these guys will be available at the end. If you’re in a larger league, then add Bo Naylor or Alejandro Kirk to the mix. Catching depth is very good right now, and I don’t think there’s enough of a difference between the big four and the rest of the top 12 or 15 to make it worth spending draft capital here.
Those in two-catcher leagues, like in the NFBC, might want to be a little more aggressive, but I’d still wait until the likely top-10 is off the board. I have O’Hoppe seventh, Moreno eighth and Garver 11th in my rankings. They’re 11th, 12th and 15th, respectively, in NFBC ADP.
Outfielders
Nolan Jones - 26th in Top 600 - 64 in Yahoo - 53 in NFBC
Jarren Duran - 64th in Top 600 - 213 in Yahoo - 147 in NFBC
Christopher Morel - 67th in Top 600 - 171 in Yahoo - 178 in NFBC
Eloy Jimenez* - 92nd in Top 600 - 196 in Yahoo - 215 in NFBC
Tyler O’Neill - 107th in Top 600 - 211 in Yahoo - 212 in NFBC
Seiya Suzuki - 79th in Top 600 - 127 in Yahoo - 102 in NFBC
Jordan Walker - 82nd in Top 600 - 125 in Yahoo - 107 in NFBC
Riley Greene - 120th in Top 600 - 157 in Yahoo - 149 in NFBC
Ian Happ - 127th in Top 600 - 176 in Yahoo - 175 in NFBC
Steven Kwan - 132nd in Top 600 - 225 in Yahoo - 212 in NFBC
Byron Buxton* - 142nd in Top 600 - 218 in Yahoo - 201 in NFBC
Lourdes Gurriel - 176th in Top 600 - 232 in Yahoo - 226 in NFBC
Kris Bryant - 185th in Top 600 - 248 in Yahoo - 245 in NFBC
Parker Meadows - 200th in Top 600 - 249 in Yahoo - 267 in NFBC
Jiménez and Buxton are ranked here as designated hitters, though Jimenez is outfield eligible on Yahoo.
It makes sense that people aren’t betting on Jones hitting .297 again, but I think some overcorrecting is going on. .270 is reasonable with Coors Field helping him along, and he has 30-homer power. Also, he was 20-for-24 stealing bases in his 106 games last year. Maybe he won’t be quite as aggressive this year, but there’s also the chance he feels like chasing a 30-30 season.
The Red Sox seem committed to Duran in the leadoff spot, so he’s another one of my very favorite picks. He was 24-for-26 stealing bases in his 102 games last season, and he should turn some doubles into homers this year after finishing at 34 and eight in his 332 at-bats last season.
No one is asking you to spend a third, fifth or even a 10th-round pick on Jiménez, O’Neill and Buxton at this point. At some point, it makes sense to chase that upside, especially on players still theoretically in their primes. Jiménez seems more content as a DH now, and there’s the chance that avoiding the outfield will help him stay healthy. O’Neill has made his way to a better ballpark and could quickly emerge as Boston’s No. 3 hitter if he gets off to a nice start. Buxton’s wheels are there now, and it’s not like he necessarily has to play 130 games or even 80 to prove worthy of a 20th-round pick.
Starting pitchers
George Kirby - 17th in Top 600 - 45 in Yahoo - 39 in NFBC
Tarik Skubal - 22nd in Top 600 - 51 in Yahoo - 47 in NFBC
Logan Gilbert - 28th in Top 600 - 75 in Yahoo - 68 in NFBC
Joe Ryan - 48th in Top 600 - 92 in Yahoo - 96 in NFBC
Tanner Bibee - 52nd in Top 600 - 98 in Yahoo - 117 in NFBC
Bailey Ober - 72nd in Top 600 - 146 in Yahoo - 133 in NFBC
Bobby Miller - 39th in Top 600 - 75 in Yahoo - 73 in NFBC
Jesus Luzardo - 60th in Top 600 - 93 in Yahoo - 85 in NFBC
Cole Ragans - 70th in Top 600 - 94 in Yahoo - 83 in NFBC
Shane Bieber - 102nd in Top 600 - 128 in Yahoo - 147 in NFBC
Mitch Keller - 117th in Top 600 - 171 in Yahoo - 164 in NFBC
Bryce Miller - 146th in Top 600 - 181 in Yahoo - 176 in NFBC
Shota Imanaga - 147th in Top 600 - 173 in Yahoo - 176 in NFBC
Aaron Civale - 172nd in Top 600 - 223 in Yahoo - 202 in NFBC
John Means - 187th in Top 600 - 78% undrafted in Yahoo - 432 in NFBC
Tyler Wells - 199th in Top 600 - 90% undrafted in Yahoo - 327 in NFBC
All of my pitching profiles are in the Draft Guide, so I’m not going to be offering many thoughts here, but with Gerrit Cole down, Kirby and Skubal are now my No. 2 and 3 SPs. I think Kirby’s strikeout rate will increase in year two, and after finishing with a 2.5% walk rate as a sophomore, he projects better than anyone from a WHIP standpoint.
Gilbert finished last year valued in the 12-15 range among SPs, and I take it some believe he’s plateaued now. I don’t think that’s necessarily true as he continues to develop his splitter, and even if it is, he’s still a good value at where he’s being drafted. ... Ryan had a 2.98 ERA and a 100/15 K/BB ratio through 15 starts last year before a groin strain set him back. Let’s not rule him out as a top-10 SP just yet. ... I’d place Wells considerably higher than 199th for April alone. It’s uncertain just how long he’ll last in Baltimore’s rotation, but with his WHIP ability, I’d rate him as a top-50 SP while he’s there. Pick him at the end and drop him (maybe for Means) if/when he’s sent to the pen.
Relievers
Evan Phillips - 83rd in Top 600 - 101 in Yahoo - 110 in NFBC
Clay Holmes - 101st in Top 600 - 119 in Yahoo - 126 in NFBC
Adbert Alzolay - 108th in Top 600 - 140 in Yahoo - 150 in NFBC
Robert Suarez - 161st in Top 600 - 191 in Yahoo - 245 in NFBC
David Robertson - 173rd in Top 600 - 248 in Yahoo - 357 in NFBC
Trevor Megill - 211th in Top 600 - Undrafted in Yahoo - 501 in NFBC
People worry about the Dodgers and Yankees not giving all of their save chances to one guy and maybe trading for closers later in the year, but Phillips and Holmes are terrific pitchers and they don’t even have clear rivals at the moment. ... That the Cubs are playing coy about naming a closer warrants some concern, but Alzolay did the job well last year and projects as the team’s best reliever going forward; I don’t see why Craig Counsell would want to mess with that and I imagine that he probably won’t.
I do worry about Yuki Matsui in San Diego, but the price is definitely right for Suarez as a No. 3 closer. ... I rank Robertson over José Leclerc in Texas, though I assume Leclerc will get most of the save chances initially. ... Although Abner Uribe should be the long-term heir to Devin Williams’ job, Megill is my choice as the short-term closer in Milwaukee.
