2024 MLB Park Factors — which stadiums will affect your fantasy baseball teams the most?
There weren’t many relevant changes to stadiums during the offseason, with the lone exception possibly being Toronto eliminating some foul territory. Of course, Rogers Centre surprisingly decreased home runs (-4%) last season after increasing them an MLB-high 28% in 2022 despite renovations that were expected to make Toronto an even bigger launching pad. Whether that’s a small sample fluke (park factors are best used with three-year samples) or a miscalculation, Blue Jays hitters will continue to miss playing in minor league stadiums like in 2021.
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The recent Toronto exception aside, park dimensions clearly can have major fantasy implications, with Baltimore the better recent example. Camden Yards increased home runs by 24% over 2019-21 — the second most in baseball. It decreased homers by 18% in 2022 (and by 9% last year) after dramatically moving back the outfield walls.
We’ll now examine the best pitching parks before moving to the most favorable places to hit, and we'll break those down further between runs scored and homers (separated by handedness).
Most stats are courtesy of Savant (RIP "The Bill James Handbook"), using a three-year sample.
The following parks are listed with the most extreme at the top, with +/- % being the difference compared to league average:
— Michael King not only gets to pitch in the easier NL West after getting traded from the Yankees to Padres, but he also saw a big upgrade in home parks. Yankee Stadium has increased homers by 16% over the last three seasons (the third most in MLB), while San Diego has decreased HR by 7% over that span (as well as greatly suppressing runs). King’s 2023 stats need context considering he spent most of the season pitching from the bullpen, but his CSW would’ve ranked second had he qualified — sandwiched between Spencer Strider and Tyler Glasnow. King is an ace in hiding and someone to target.
— Jorge Polanco suffered a downgrade in home venues with his trade to Seattle, but Mariners pitchers will continue to benefit from T-Mobile Park. For what it’s worth, George Kirby had a 7.9 K9 with a 3.98 ERA on the road last season, while Bryce Miller posted a 5.18 ERA away from home. Seattle decreases batting average on balls in play more than any park in baseball.
— Pete Alonso has hit 22 more home runs and has an OPS nearly 100 points higher on the road during his career. He’d be a real threat to hit 50 bombs if he played in Cincinnati. Luis Severino picked a good park to try to resurrect his career, while Kodai Senga’s 32.7 K% at home last year would’ve ranked behind only Strider for the season.
— Tropicana Field not only suppresses runs scored and homers, but it’s also increased strikeouts an MLB-high 11% over the last three seasons; Zach Eflin is a darkhorse Cy Young candidate who should be treated as a top-15 fantasy starter.
— Corbin Burnes should allow fewer homers in his new park after getting traded to the Orioles, but he’ll also lose some strikeouts. Milwaukee has increased Ks by 10% over the last three seasons, the second-most of any stadium. Burnes will also lose the league’s best defense while joining a tougher division, so he’s something of a risky pick going as a top-three SP.
— THE BAT X projects Nolan Jones to post the highest wRC+ (105) on the Rockies, which is barely above average and not among the top-125 hitters, yet Colorado is also projected to finish in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Brenton Doyle strikes out a lot, but his terrific defense should help keep him in Colorado's lineup. Doyle produced 32 homers/steals in fewer than 400 ABs last season despite not taking advantage of Coors Field; he somehow hit just .168 (with a .222 BABIP in the park that boosts hit rate the most) with a 19 wRC+ at home. The Rockies’ roster looks bleak, but their hitters can’t be ignored thanks to Colorado's elevation.
— Lucas Giolito landed in a tough spot for a bounce back, whereas Tyler O’Neil gets a boost after joining the Red Sox.
— Frankie Montas goes from pitching most of his career in a pitcher’s park in Oakland to the best hitter’s park outside of Coors Field. Cincinnati not only boosts runs scored, but Great American Ballpark has increased home runs by a whopping (and MLB-high) 31% over the last three seasons. Alexis Diaz (6.5% K-BB after the All-Star break) is someone to avoid in fantasy leagues this year, but thankfully Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are two of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball and capable of overcoming a hitter’s paradise.
— Kansas City is different, as it increases run scoring but suppresses homers; Kauffman Stadium has decreased home runs by 16% over the last three seasons, with only a handful of parks limiting long balls more (Comerica Park has suppressed HRs the most over that span). Since it also decreases strikeouts (-13%) and helps in batting average (+7%), Kauffman Stadium should be considered a favorable hitter’s park (that limits power).
— Joey Gallo will continue to launch homers in Washington, while Nick Senzel could’ve suffered a bigger downgrade leaving Great American Smallpark.
HOME RUNS (separated by handedness)
Parks that boost HRs for RIGHTIES
Cincinnati Reds +26%
Los Angeles Dodgers +26%
New York Yankees +13%
Colorado Rockies +12%
Texas Rangers +12%
— Elly De La Cruz is this year’s biggest boom-or-bust fantasy pick, and optimists could point toward him posting just a .636 OPS (60 wRC+) at home last season (.776 and 106 on the road). The Reds are loaded with exciting young hitters who will greatly benefit from playing half their games in a launching pad.
— Dodger Stadium is otherwise neutral, but it’s increased home runs for right-handed batters by 26% over the last three seasons. Teoscar Hernández signed in a terrific place, and projections have him approaching 30 homers and 90 RBI in fewer than 140 games. Hernandez is going in Round 10 in early Yahoo drafts and is an outfielder to target.
— Good thing Marcus Stroman is an extreme groundball pitcher, because Yankee Stadium has boosted homers by 16% over the last three seasons — the third most in MLB. Gleyber Torres is a second baseman to target in 2024.
— Kris Bryant has just seven homers over 260 at-bats in Coors Field since joining Colorado two years ago. Sean Bouchard is 27 years old and likely ticketed to Triple-A after Colorado inked a deal with Bradley Zimmer, but his projections suggest Bouchard will be one of the Rockies' best hitters this season. He’s a deep fantasy sleeper.
— Wyatt Langford had a ludicrous minor league debut in 2023 and will benefit from his home park during his attempt to win the AL Rookie of the Year award this season.
Parks that boost HRs for LEFTIES
Cincinnati Reds +39%
New York Yankees +23%
Los Angeles Angels +22%
Los Angeles Dodgers +17%
— Juan Soto may not hit many more homers in 2024 despite Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right field thanks to a low fly ball pull rate, but he’ll benefit from getting away from Petco Park. Soto hit .240 with 12 homers, 39 runs scored and 45 RBI at home last season; he hit .307 with 23 homers, 58 runs scored and 64 RBI on the road in the same number of games. Soto has hit .231 over 389 career ABs in Petco Park; he’s hit .292 in all other parks. Soto is the favorite to lead the AL in runs scored while hitting in front of Aaron Judge, and Steamer projects him to lead the league in wRC+ this season.
— Switch-hitter Jeimer Candelario saw a big upgrade in parks with his move to Cincinnati after playing most of his career in pitcher-friendly Detroit. He’s locked in a role, slated to hit in the middle of the Reds’ lineup and is a fantasy target while likely to set a career-high in homers this season.
[2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP]
— TJ Friedl would lose a bunch of fantasy value should he leave Cincinnati, as he was able to hit 18 homers last season despite just 13 barrels and an expected slugging percentage in the bottom 2% of the league. Friedl has hit twice as many long balls at home than on the road during his career while seeing just 45% of his ABs in GAB. He owns a career .916 OPS (136 wRC+) at home compared to .705 (93) on the road. Will Benson will platoon, but the lefty is a sleeper to go 20/20 anyway.
— Alex Verdugo gets a big boost in homers with his move to New York, but that comes with a significant hit to batting average while leaving Boston. Fenway Park has increased BA for left-handed batters an MLB-high 16% over the last three seasons, while Yankee Stadium has decreased it an MLB-high 12% over that span. Austin Wells is a target in two-catcher formats.
— Shohei Ohtani sees mostly a neutral move changing parks in Los Angeles and could benefit from a full-time hitting role if his elbow cooperates, while first-rounder Nolan Shanuel is a deep fantasy sleeper.
— Bryce Harper is a real threat to win MVP now that he's healthy, while Bryson Stott is a 2B to target thanks in part to Citizens Bank Park. Aaron Nola has pretty drastic home (3.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) and road (4.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) splits throughout his career despite pitching in one of the most homer-friendly parks.
— Tyler Glasnow will give up more homers pitching in Los Angeles, but Dodger Stadium suppresses runs, hits and walks while increasing strikeouts, so don’t let fear stop you from drafting Cyler in 2024.
