2023 Fantasy Football: Stats you need to know before your last-minute drafts
By John Paulsen, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
Each season I write draft blurbs for most of the fantasy-relevant players in the league heading into the 2023 draft season, so I thought I’d once again share some of the more interesting stats and splits that I ran across during the time spent researching each position.
I discovered many of these stats while using 4for4’s Market Share Splits App, developed by 4for4 contributor and data scientist Kevin Zatloukal (Twitter: @kczat). The excellent site, Stathead.com, was also a helpful resource.
Here’s a link to last year’s article for those who want to view the receipts. There are always a few duds but I think for the most part the stats were pretty actionable in 2022.
Before we jump into one stat for all 32 teams, if you want even more (99 total stats), check out the full original article on 4for4.
Dallas Goedert has a volume problem
Advanced stats say that Goedert is more talented than T.J. Hockenson, but his usage in Philly’s run-heavy offense and target competition leaves him at a less-than-appealing 5.5 targets per game, the 13th-most at his position. He’s highly efficient, however, and that makes him a solid TE1. He averaged the fourth-most yards per route run among qualified tight ends last season. He was second in that metric in 2021.
Mike McCarthy’s run-heavy philosophy might vault Tony Pollard into the top five
In 16 games, Pollard finished as the fantasy RB7 and had the ninth-highest per-game average, all while playing in a timeshare with Ezekiel Elliott. Per PFF, he had the fourth-highest run grade and the ninth-highest receiving grade among running backs. Per Pro Football Reference, among backs with at least 100 carries, he was first in yards after contact per attempt (2.6) and was 15th among running backs in rush attempts per broken tackle (17.5).
In other words, Pollard's really, really good.
Daniel Jones is (one of the) late-round quarterbacks that you’re looking for
Jones was a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2022 in his first season with HC Brian Daboll, and that was with an injury-riddled and suspect receiving corps. The Giants added Darren Waller, who could be Jones’ top target, along with the speedy Parris Campbell, and Jalin Hyatt in the draft. The Giants should get Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson back as well. I’d expect Jones to improve upon the 3,205 yards and 15 touchdowns that he had as a passer last season.
But what makes Jones an appealing fantasy pick is his ability to rush the ball. His 708 yards and seven rushing touchdowns nearly matched Josh Allen’s output (762/7) last season.
Sam Howell is the (very) late-round quarterback that you’re looking for
Howell is arbitrage for Anthony Richardson. My quarterback model projects Howell for 34.6 rushing yards per game after he ran for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns in his final college season. He looked competent in one start last season, completing 11/19 passes for 169 yards, one touchdown and one interception against the Cowboys in Week 18. He also added 35 yards and a touchdown as a runner in that game.
[Visit 4for4, where 92% of subscribers made the playoffs, for more]
In the 2022 preseason, he completed 43/69 for 547 yards (7.9 YPA), one touchdown and one interception. He also added 94 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 13 attempts in the preseason. That works out to about 45.3 fantasy points in 2.5 games of work. When combined with his lone regular-season start, it’s 63.6 fantasy points in 3.5 games of work — or an 18.2-point average.
I have him as my QB19 even though he’s the QB21 off the board. He’s an ideal QB3 target in two-QB/Superflex leagues.
T.J. Hockenson’s usage makes him an elite fantasy option
Hockenson’s production after arriving in Minnesota definitely puts him in the “elite TE” conversation. His per-game fantasy production was actually higher in his first seven games in Detroit, but his targets jumped from 6.1 per game to 8.6 per game after the trade to Minnesota. That usage is hard to find at the tight end position, so Hockenson’s fourth-round ADP is justified.
Since 2020, only two tight ends not named Kelce, Andrews or Kittle — namely, 2022 Hockenson and 2020 Darren Waller — have averaged 10+ half-PPR points per game.
Jahmyr Gibbs should see a big (but not bell-cow) workload
The Lions made Gibbs the second running back off the board when they took him with the No. 12 overall pick. Four running backs have been drafted in the No. 8 to No. 15 range since the 2010 season and they have averaged 211 touches for 1,009 yards and 6.0 touchdowns as rookies (in 13.8 games played).
Gibbs has 4.36 speed and racked up 1,370 total yards in his final (and only) season at Alabama, including 44-444-3 as a receiver. (We appreciate the shoutout, Jahmyr.) The Lions have a great offensive line and a strong running game, but after the team brought in David Montgomery to replace Jamaal Williams (262 touches, 1,066 yards, 17 touchdowns), it’s unlikely that Gibbs sees a huge (i.e. 18+ touch) workload. He is a threat for 70+ catches and 1,200 total yards, however.
Aaron Jones’ ADP is a travesty
Jones finished as the fantasy RB9 in each of the last two seasons, yet he’s the 12th running back off the board in drafts. His detractors will likely point to his age (28, not a major concern) and the Packers’ offense, which is expected to take a step back after the loss of Aaron Rodgers. Yet the Packers had an off year in 2022 — 14th in points scored, 17th in yards from scrimmage — and Jones still posted top-10 numbers at his position.
He has averaged 16.6 touches per game over the last four seasons and is typically a big part of the game plan whenever he’s available. And he’s usually available — he has just four missed games in the last four years. To top it off, he’s really good! Last year, he was seventh in yards after contact per attempt, 15th in broken tackles per attempt and third in PFF’s rushing grade. He has the fifth-most receptions, the sixth-most receiving yards and the second-most receiving touchdowns among running backs in the last two seasons.
I’d have no problem rolling with Jones as my RB1 if I were to wait until the third or fourth round to draft my first running back.
Don’t sleep on Khalil Herbert
David Montgomery is gone, so Herbert is the top returning rusher (129 carries for 731 yards and four touchdowns) on the Bears. His advanced stats are really, really good. Among backs with 100+ carries, he was second in yards after contact per attempt and 10th in broken tackles per attempt (per Stathead).
The Bears signed D’Onta Foreman and drafted Roschon Johnson, but early in camp the pecking order has been Herbert, Johnson and then Foreman, so Johnson seems to be the bigger threat. (Herbert has apparently looked impressive, however.) Johnson has a great draft profile, but Herbert should be able to hold him off given his experience and production to date. As the RB29 off the board, he’s one of the last de facto “starters” available.
If he’s able to improve his pass-blocking, Herbert could be a three-down back.
Rachaad White could break out as a volume-based RB2
White “took over” as the starter in Week 10, and from that point on he was the fantasy RB29. In his defense, he was still splitting time with Leonard Fournette. White averaged 15.2 touches for 65 yards and 0.25 touchdowns while playing 49% of the snaps. Fournette was still playing around 46% of the snaps once he ceded the starting role.
Per Stathead, among backs with 100+ carries, White was 39th in yards after contact per attempt and 34th in broken tackles per attempt. That’s nothing to write home about. He was 55th out of 62 eligible running backs in PFF’s rushing grade.
At this point, his fantasy value relies on his expected volume — his primary competition is 2022 disappointment Chase Edmonds and Ke’Shawn Vaughn — and the fact that he caught 50 passes as a rookie. As I often say, we need to “follow the touches” when identifying value at the running back position and White should see plenty of work as the Bucs’ RB1. He looks like a decent value as the 27th back off the board in early drafts.
Miles Sanders is in line for a bell-cow workload
After a couple of 12-game seasons, Sanders turned in RB11 numbers as he played a full season in a contract year. He parlayed that into a four-year deal worth $25 million, which was the biggest contract signed by a running back this year.
Sanders joins the Panthers, who have the third-most available backfield touches from last season. Carolina’s offense has been pretty suspect in recent years, but the arrival of Bryce Young should help to turn the ship around.
The Panthers have made it known that they want to use Sanders more as a pass-catcher than the Eagles did. After catching 50 passes for 509 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie — which were the 12th-most receptions and the seventh-most receiving yards at his position — Sanders averaged 2.3, 2.2 and 1.2 receptions per game over his next three seasons.
To top it off, the Panthers have a pretty good offensive line. They were ninth in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards. Things are setting up well for Sanders, provided he can stay healthy.
Alvin Kamara is worthy of a pick in the eighth or ninth round, maybe earlier
Kamara pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor charge, which means that his off-the-field trouble is resolved as far as the legal system is concerned. The NFL subsequently suspended him for the first three games of the season.
So. fantasy managers could have an RB2 with weekly RB1 upside available for the stretch run at the cost of a middle-round pick. He was the fantasy RB19 last season and was 13th among the 42 backs who saw 100+ carries in yards after contact per attempt. There are only a handful of backs going outside the top 100 who have his level of upside.
Drake London could be a star, but will the Falcons throw it enough?
London posted 72-866-4 on 117 targets as a rookie. That was good enough to finish WR38, though he was WR50 on a per-game basis. No one doubts London’s talent, but his environment is less than ideal. We don’t know how good Desmond Ridder is, and the Falcons were one of the most run-heavy teams in the league last season.
London’s production (and usage) spiked once Kyle Pitts started missing time. In 10 games that London played with Pitts, he averaged 3.5-37-0.40 (on 5.8 targets per game). In seven games without Pitts, London averaged 5.3-70-0.0 (on 8.4 targets per game).
Most of those games happened at the end of the season, so it might be a situation where a rookie receiver simply peaked late, but those splits are pretty stark. London has the talent to be the WR21 off the board, but the situation is suboptimal, to put it kindly.
Deebo Samuel was Brock Purdy’s top target when healthy
In the five games that Purdy played with a healthy Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, here’s what each player averaged:
Samuel: 4.4-60-0.20 (6.8 targets per game), 9.4 half-PPR PPG
Aiyuk: 3.2-52-0.20 (5.2), 8.0 PPG
Kittle: 3.4-42-0.40 (4.2), 8.3 PPG
In the three games Samuel missed, Aiyuk and Kittle stepped it up:
Aiyuk: 5.3-67-0.33 (7.7), 11.4 PPG
Kittle: 4.7-79-1.67 (7.0), 20.2 PPG
When all three were healthy, Samuel produced at a WR3 level, while Aiyuk was more of a WR4/WR5. Kittle posted low-end TE1 numbers.
When Samuel was out, Aiyuk became a WR2 and Kittle put up monster numbers good enough to be the overall TE1.
If Samuel can stay healthy, he should find himself back in the top 20. He averaged 19.7 rushing yards prior to Christian McCaffrey’s arrival, and 15.7 after, so his rushing took a slight hit. HC Kyle Shanahan will continue to scheme him touches, so he has a pretty stable floor for a receiver.
Kenneth Walker is likely to lose snaps to Zach Charbonnet, if Charbonnet's shoulder isn't an issue
As a rookie, Walker finished as the fantasy RB19 but didn’t earn his first start until Week 6. From that point on, he was the fantasy RB7. So why is he the 19th back off the board? Simply put, the Seahawks used a second-round pick on Zach Charbonnet, a talented back with three-down potential.
Walker only caught 27 passes as a rookie so Charbonnet could immediately see a role on third downs. Charbonnet caught 37 passes in his final season at UCLA while Walker had 19 TOTAL receptions in three collegiate seasons.
Seattle’s offensive line was 30th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards and they didn’t do a whole lot to improve the unit. Walker’s production will depend largely on his carry share in Seattle’s backfield, but with Charbonnet in the fold, his ceiling isn’t nearly as high as it could be.
As for Charbonnet's shoulder ailment, coach Pete Carroll said, “He didn’t get hit or anything like that. Just all of a sudden, he started to feel something, so we’re just checking him out and being really cautious right now.”
Charbonnet would return to practice and the Seahawks' final preseason game, but he only got four touches.
Both backs now look healthy heading into Week 1, but it seems Charbonnet's re-injury risk and his role behind Walker are in the wait-and-see territory.
Cooper Kupp should be the second receiver off the board
There are a handful of receivers who could usurp Justin Jefferson as the fantasy WR1, and Kupp is one of them. He played eight full games last season, and at the time of his ankle injury he had the second-most fantasy points (to Tyreek Hill) but also had the top per-game average (20.3).
Even though he only played nine games, he still finished as the fantasy WR21 after the top overall finish in 2021. Matthew Stafford is back and Kupp has very little competition for targets in the Rams’ passing attack. He should see a boatload of targets every week — health permitting of course, as he reportedly suffered a recent setback with his hamstring; Sean McVay is calling him "day-to-day" — a situation late drafters need to monitor closely.
James Conner offers "boring value" in the middle rounds
Conner followed up an RB7 finish in 2021 with an RB17 season in 2022, though he missed a few games due to injury. From Week 10 to Week 17, he was the fantasy RB5, averaging 21.3 touches for 102 total yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game. He just turned 28 and didn’t fare particularly well in the yards after contact or tackle-breaking advanced metrics. However, he seems to have a stranglehold on the Arizona backfield and he’s always been a solid receiver.
It’s not often that drafters can get this sort of locked-in workload in the fifth round, but given the depth of the position, that’s the case this year. Conner joins Cam Akers as middle-round backs likely to see 17+ touches per game whenever healthy.
The Cardinals’ offensive line was a bottom-10 unit in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards, but the team did add center Hjalte Froholdt and guard Elijah Wilkinson in free agency, and drafted tackle Paris Johnson with the No. 6 overall pick, so this could be an improved unit. The quarterback position looms large for this team, but from a workload standpoint, Conner projects to be a very good value given his ADP.
I still believe in Gabe Davis
Much-derided after failing to live up to high expectations in his third season, Davis still managed 836 yards and seven touchdowns on 48 catches as he battled an ankle injury for most of the season. He finished as the WR28 in half-PPR formats (WR33 in PPR) after being drafted as the WR28, so maybe he didn’t have such a bad season after all.
He posted 4-88-1 in Week 1 before suffering a high-ankle injury that forced him to miss one game, but the ankle was a factor through Week 5 at least. He’s going off the board as the WR36, but his ADP may rise. He just turned 24, he’s the WR2 in one of the best passing attacks in the league and he has caught 17 touchdowns in his last 24 games.
Can Tua Tagovailoa play a full season? If so, he should finish as a QB1
Tagovailoa is certainly intriguing considering his 17.8 fantasy points per game average matched that of Trevor Lawrence as the 10th-highest last season. The concern with Tagovailoa is his overall health and whether he’s able to play 16+ games given his history of concussions.
If he does, he’s likely to finish as a QB1. He posted the fifth-highest PFF passing grade, the league-best QB rating and the highest adjusted completion percentage on deep (20+ yard) passes.
Rhamondre Stevenson delivers in his second season
As a rookie, Stevenson was fourth in yards after contact per attempt and second in broken tackles per attempt, per Pro Football Reference. These were positive indicators that led to a fantasy RB10 finish in 2022. It was especially impressive considering he didn’t start a game until Week 6 and only started seven games in total. Last season, Stevenson finished ninth in yards after contact per attempt and third in broken tackles per attempt and posted the 13th-highest PFF rushing grade.
The biggest issue with Stevenson is the addition of Ezekiel Elliott to the backfield (even though the Patriots didn't necessarily need a veteran addition of his caliber). The offensive line was a mediocre run-blocking unit, but the fact that the Patriots actually have a real coordinator in charge of the offense (Bill O’Brien) should help the offense as a whole. Stevenson is a solid pick near the second/third-round turn.
Breece Hall is likely to get off to a slow start, but patient managers should be rewarded
Hall’s rookie season went pretty well prior to the ACL tear. He turned 80 carries into 463 yards (5.8 yards per carry), and four touchdowns, and added 19-218-1 on 31 targets as a receiver. The gaudy YPC is nice, but he didn’t fare particularly well in the advanced metrics — his yards after contact per attempt, broken tackles per attempt and PFF rushing grade were all mediocre at best. However, he gained 60+ total yards and found the end zone in five of his last six games, and saw 19+ touches in his last three full games.
The buzz surrounding Hall’s recovery has been uniformly positive this summer, though there’s a good chance that he’s not getting major touches if he’s ready to play in Week 1, especially with the addition of Dalvin Cook. The offense should score more points with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and a rising tide should lift all boats, Hall included. Fantasy managers who are patient with Hall to start the year should be reaping the benefits by midseason, if not earlier.
Joe Mixon could post low-end RB1 numbers in a volume-based role
Mixon was the fantasy RB13 last season after an RB3 finish in 2021. His advanced stats — yards after contact per attempt, broken tackles per attempt — haven’t been very good in the last two seasons, yet he keeps putting up good numbers.
As many fantasy analysts have pointed out, Mixon put up 25% of his fantasy points in a single game (against the Panthers) last season. When both that game and his worst game — 5.3 fantasy points against the Jets — are removed, the resulting 12.6 fantasy points per game would have tied Leonard Fournette for RB15 on a per-game basis last season. So his RB10 ADP is close to spot-on. He should continue to see a big workload, especially with Samaje Perine moving to Denver.
Odell Beckham Jr. was very good during his time with the Rams
Beckham sat out the 2022 season after tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl. In his last 11 games with the Rams, he averaged 4.2 catches for 52 yards and 0.64 touchdowns per game, or 11.1 (half-PPR) fantasy points per game. That’s about what DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin averaged last season as solid WR2-types.
After charting his stint with the Rams, Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports wrote last year that Beckham “still gets open at an extremely high level” and that he “didn’t lose any steam” in his time in LA. The Ravens should have a healthy Rashod Bateman back and they added talented slot receiver Zay Flowers in the first round. Throw in Mark Andrews and there is serious target competition, but even at 30, Beckham may be the best player in this receiver room.
“Follow the touches” (and good offensive line play) with Najee Harris
Harris ground his way to a fantasy RB14 finish last season after finishing RB4 as a rookie. People seem to be worried about Jaylen Warren, but Harris had a better PFF rushing grade and more broken tackles per rush (per Pro Football Reference).
One overlooked area of fantasy football — the Steelers’ offensive line could be really good. They were 10th in Adjusted Line Yards (per Football Outsiders), and the team spent the fourth-most along the offensive line in free agency and drafted tackle Broderick Jones in the first round. Harris should see plenty of touches and finish as a low-end RB1 if he remains healthy. Another top-five finish is within his range of outcomes.
Both Amari Cooper and David Njoku were better with Jacoby Brissett
Cooper turned in a WR9 season though his per-game average was good for WR13. It was his third season in the last four where he cleared 1,100 yards and eight-plus touchdowns. Entering his age-29 season, it should remain all systems go, right?
Well, when I pulled his splits with Deshaun Watson, they were a bit alarming.
In 11 games with Brissett, Cooper averaged a healthy 5.2-72-0.64 on 8.5 targets per game. Those were WR8 numbers through 12 weeks. With a rusty Watson under center, Cooper’s averages dropped to 3.5-61-0.33 on 6.5 targets per game (in six games), which made him the WR23 in that span.
As for Njoku, he was also more productive (4.6-52-0.22) in the nine games he played with Brissett at quarterback than he was in five games with Deshaun Watson (3.4-33-0.40), though his targets were about the same with both quarterbacks.
With a full offseason together, Watson should have a better rapport with his receivers in 2023, but a bet on Cooper/Njoku is a bet on Watson getting back to his mid-career form. Elijah Moore is also in the mix.
Travis Etienne might have a usage problem
Etienne finished as the fantasy RB16 last season. Once James Robinson was traded, Etienne averaged 18.2 touches per game for 93 yards and 0.44 touchdowns the rest of the way. Unfortunately, he was never targeted much (2.2 targets per game in that span) and the team drafted Tank Bigsby and signed D’Ernest Johnson to provide more backfield depth.
Bigsby has his backers, but Johnson was excellent in 100 carries back in 2021, when he finished seventh in yards after contact per attempt and was fifth in broken tackles per rush attempt, per Pro Football Reference. Etienne was solid in those metrics — 22nd and 12th, respectively — last season.
The Jaguars reportedly “didn’t want to see” Etienne taking 74% of the carries again, which is why they added Bigsby and Johnson. JaMycal Hasty will also be in the mix. It’s tough to project a big second-year jump for a player who was a fantasy RB2 last season and faces more touch competition in Year Two.
DeAndre Hopkins could surprise in Tennessee
Opportunity-wise, Hopkins landed in a good spot. The Titans’ receiver room was pretty thin, but with Hopkins and Treylon Burks, along with the buzz surrounding Kyle Phillips and Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee has some weapons.
When we last saw him, Hopkins was averaging nearly 80 yards on 10.7 targets per game. He was the fantasy WR9 from Week 7 to Week 16 when he was healthy enough to play, so I’m not really buying the anonymous reports that he “can’t separate” anymore.
Entering his age-31 season, there are concerns that he’ll be the next Julio Jones, who caught a mere 31 passes for 434 yards and a touchdown in 10 games with the Titans. But Hopkins is a year younger than Jones was when he joined the Titans, and Jones was brought in to be the clear No. 2 option behind A.J. Brown. That’s not the case with Hopkins, since Burks has not established himself as the alpha in the Tennessee passing attack. Hopkins seems likely to post WR2 numbers as long as he’s healthy enough to play.
Michael Pittman Jr. may struggle to build on early-career success
Pittman is an ascending player, but he may find himself in a difficult situation with QB Anthony Richardson as his starting quarterback. Pittman was WR23 last season after a WR21 finish the year before. In those two seasons, the Colts attempted 604 and 521 passes, respectively. New HC Shane Steichen’s offense in Philly attempted 536 passes last season, and Jalen Hurts was highly efficient – 8.0 yards per attempt with a 4.8% touchdown rate.
Richardson figures to struggle as a passer as a rookie, so Pittman drafters have to hope that Steichen calls enough pass plays to support Pittman as a fantasy starter. He’s going off the board WR29, so expectations are fairly low given Pittman’s career thus far.
And he has the talent — he charted above average to good against man, zone, double-team and press coverage at Reception Perception — and posted a top-20 yards per route run in 2021 when he had decent quarterback play (2022 was really rough in that department). Given his positional ADP, Pittman is a bet-on-talent pick in the middle rounds.
Dameon Pierce ran really well as a rookie, but Devin Singletary’s arrival is cause for concern
The former fourth-round pick had an excellent rookie season, turning 250 touches into 1,104 total yards and five touchdowns even though he only played 13 games. (He was on pace for 1,228 rushing yards before his injury.) Houston’s line was the second-worst in the league in Adjusted Line Yards (per Football Outsiders), though the addition of second-round center Juice Scruggs should help. Pierce averaged 19.2 touches per game as a rookie, but that usage is in some jeopardy after the Texans gave a healthy contract to free agent Singletary.
The good news is that Pierce was an advanced stats machine as a rookie, finishing fourth in yards after contact per attempt, second in broken tackles per attempt, and 12th in PFF’s rushing grade. With C.J. Stroud at quarterback, the offense should be better able to sustain drives, stay competitive and stick with the running game. This could lead to a fantasy RB2-type season for Pierce, but it depends on what the team has in mind for Singletary.
Isiah Pacheco was a solid RB2 by the end of last season
Pacheco settled into the starting job by midseason, finishing with 960 total yards and five touchdowns. He has 4.37 speed, but he didn’t fare particularly well in PFR’s advanced running back stats. He was 39th (out of 40 eligible running backs) in broken tackles per carry, which is surprisingly poor for a player who runs as hard as he does. His PFF rushing grade (74.2) was solid but not great. Pacheco started seeing double-digit carries consistently in Week 10, and from that point on he was the fantasy RB18.
And that was with Jerick McKinnon tearing it up as a receiver down the stretch. The Chiefs did get Pacheco more involved as a receiver down the stretch — he averaged 1.7 catches for 19.5 yards per game from Week 12 to Week 17 and had six catches in three playoff games. If the Chiefs run a Pacheco/McKinnon committee again, then Pacheco has RB2 upside.
When healthy, Keenan Allen is a low-end WR1 and Mike Williams is a solid fantasy WR2
Last year, Allen averaged 6.6 catches for 75 yards and 0.40 touchdowns on 8.9 targets per game, and that included a couple of games where he had to leave early due to injury. He turned 31 in April and missed seven games last season due to a hamstring injury, so durability is a concern. He’s essentially a low-end WR1 whenever he’s healthy, but his recent injury history has him going off the board as a midrange WR2.
Meanwhile, Williams was the fantasy WR15 in 2021 (WR20 per game) and WR30 last year, though he missed a few games and finished WR19 on a per-game basis. He has averaged at least 66 yards per game in three of his last four seasons and has 18 touchdowns in his last three. He doesn’t seem to care about protecting himself when trying to make circus catches, and that can lead to injury.
Allen is still the team’s WR1, but he has a tendency to get nicked up as well, and Williams’ role grows when Allen misses time. Even with Allen on the field, Williams has averaged a solid 4.0-60-0.42 on 6.6 targets per game over the last three seasons. He was 20th in yards per route run; he is a solid but not great route runner. Where he really thrives is on contested catches — he finished third in 538/ESPN’s advanced “Catch” score. As long as he stays healthy, he should provide WR2 production and that makes him a good value as the WR32 off the board.
Despite the quarterback change, Davante Adams looks like a draft-day value
Adams is going off the board as the WR10, which is the latest that he’s been drafted since the 2017 season when he was coming off of a 75-997-12 campaign in his third year. Of course, this has nothing to do with his ability to get open or catch the ball. He caught 100+ passes and racked up 1,374+ yards for the third straight season. He posted the sixth-highest yards per route run in 2022 after finishing third and first in the two previous seasons.
Adams is the 10th receiver off the board due to the uncertainty at quarterback. Derek Carr has moved on, so Adams has to get in sync with Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo may be better than Carr, but drafters rightfully get a little skittish whenever there’s a (possibly negative) quarterback change. Still, Adams is immensely talented and Garoppolo has racked up some very efficient numbers in the last few seasons in San Francisco. Adams should provide a solid return as a second-round pick.
Javonte Williams is on track for Week 1 but may be in a timeshare all year
Williams’ fantasy outlook primarily depends on his recovery from a torn ACL (and a torn LCL and PLC) in his right knee. While that sounds terrible, he shockingly played in the preseason and looked good doing so.
We know that he’s good. As a rookie, Williams was seventh in yards after contact per attempt and led all running backs in broken tackles per attempt (per Pro Football Reference). Last year’s numbers were similarly strong in the four games that he played.
Under normal circumstances, he might be pushing for RB1 draft status, but as it stands he’s the 26th back off the board in early drafts. The Broncos signed Samaje Perine and he’ll likely have a big role even when Williams is fully healthy. If Williams can play in September (and it seems like will), I’d expect a 50/50 split between the two moving to a 60/40 or 65/35 split once Williams proves his health, though HC Sean Payton is known for using committees in his backfields — think Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.
This article originally appeared on 4for4.com
John was named the Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert by FantasyPros for the 2010 and 2014 seasons, and has finished in the Top 10 in 10 of the last 12 years, including eight finishes in the Top 5. Cumulatively, John has been the most accurate expert from 2010-21 while also winning various draft rankings accuracy competitions (2011, FSTA and 2019, Fantasy Nation).
More analysis from 4for4: Perfect Draft: 10th in a 12-Team Yahoo Half-PPR League
