2023 Big Ten Betting Preview Series: Penn State Nittany Lions
Eric Froton is previewing every Big Ten squad by looking back at their 2022 season, breaking down any changes in 2023, analyzing their rosters and handicapping their win total for the season.
Today we head to Happy Valley to evaluate the Penn State Nittany Lions:
HC - James Franklin (10th year)
OC - Mike Yurcich (4th year)
DC - Manny Diaz (2nd year)
2022 Record: 11-2
Second Order Win Total: 10.4 (-0.6)
2022 Over/Under: 8.5 Wins
Points/Yards Per Game: 35.8 points | 434 yards (253 pass | 181 rush)
Points/Yards Allowed: 18.2 points | 323 yards (212 pass | 111 rush)
2023 SP+ Overall: 8th
2023 SP+ Offense: 22nd
2023 SP+ Defense: 6th
2022 SP+ Special Teams: 67th
Offensive Returning Production: 50.5% (100th)
Defensive Returning Production: 74% (19th)
247Sports Avg. Offensive Player Rating: .9070 (9th)
247Sports Avg. Defensive Player Rating: .9079 (9th)
Pace of Play: 26 seconds per play | 71.5 plays per game
2023 Schedule Strength: 60th
Looking Back at 2021 & 2022
The Nittany Lions roared out of the starting gate in 2021, winning a convincing opener in Camp Randall against Wisconsin before thoroughly handling Auburn (94% post game win expectancy) and starting off a hopeful campaign 5-0. However from there PSU would drop five of their next six games including one-score defeats at the hands of @Iowa, @Illinois and @ Michigan to toss a bucket of cold water on a potentially promising 2021 campaign. PSU had post game win expectancies of 18% or less in five of their six losses, so despite four of those losses being within one score, they were actually outplayed by a margin far greater than that. Their 5th ranked SP+ defense was so smothering it allowed PSU to keep games artificially close. Needless to say, 7-5 with a listless 24-10 Outback Bowl loss to Arkansas wasn’t the desired result from a Happy Valley fanbase that just endured a frustrating 4-5 2020 season marred by pandemic.
Given Penn State’s OC Mike Yurcich’s pass happy Oklahoma State roots, you’d have expected the Nittany Lions to be among the FBS leaders in downfield passing last season. However they only stretched the field 13% of the time (83rd) while throwing 30% of their passes around the line of scrimmage (28th). Some of that can be attributed to limitations with QB Sean Clifford, as his 77.8 PFF deep passing grade ranked 55th among the 73 FBS signal callers with 45+ deep throws last year.
Their running game brimmed with renewed vigor behind Gatorade High School National Player of the Year RB Nicholas Singleton and fellow four-star battering ram, Kaytron Allen (5’11/225). Both freshman phenoms contributed immediately, improving drastically on Penn State’s ghastly 108 rushing yards per game while ranking fifth worst nationally in rushing explosiveness in 2021. PSU ran for 181 yards (+73 from 2021), 4.8 YPC (3.2 YPC in 2021) and ranked 11th in rushing explosiveness (126th in 2021).
The Nittany Lions managed this dramatic comeuppance despite the offensive line returning just 36 career starts. The pass protection was worlds better as well, with their sack rate plummeting from 7.0% with 34 sacks allowed in 2021, to 4.4% with 21 sacks allowed last season. Future first-round pick LT Olu Fashanu led the way with an 84.7 pass block grade while allowing 0 sacks or penalties in 542 snaps, while C Juice Scruggs (1 sack in 886 snaps) and LG Hunter Nourzad (2 sacks in 574 reps) earned All-Big Ten recognition as well. Penn State is 10-5 (.667) against the spread when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season, tied for 7th-best in (FBS avg: .443).
DC Manny Diaz took control of the defense after six years at Miami where his team allowed 27 PPG in 2020 and 28.4 PPG while ranking 51st in SP+ during his final year at the helm. For their part, PSU’s 2021 unit was one of the nation’s best at suppressing big plays, ranking top-10 nationally in explosive play rate (10%), points per drive (1.39) and yards per play (4.8).
Despite returning just five starters from Penn State’s top-flight 2021 unit, DC Diaz had an instant effect on the front-seven. PSU boosted a mediocre 6.4% DL havoc rate (45th) in 2021 to 9.3% last year, the eighth best mark nationally, while leading the country with a sensational 39% pressure rate! They pitched 3-and-outs a superb 41% of the time (6th) and allowed just 2.30 line yards per carry (15th) with a 25% stuff rate that ranked 9th in FBS.
The secondary was nearly flawless, ranking in the top-5 nationally in yards per dropback (5.0), completion rate (52%) and TD rate (2.5%). The elite CB-trio of Kalen King, Joey Porter Jr. and Johnny Dixon combined for a sparkling 39 PBU, while J’Ayir Brown led the team with 74 tackles. If you take out the games against Ohio State and Michigan, PSU mauled the rest of their schedule allowing just 15 points per game with a win expectancy of 97% or more in nine contests.
Despite the elite level of defensive performance, PSU has some issues in run support, ranking 70th in rushing explosiveness, 76th in rushing success rate (44%), and their 85% tackle success rate charted at a dreadful 113th overall. While the defensive backfield was excellent, they could certainly improve upon the 16.1% of pass attempts going for 20+ yards downfield which ranked 65th.
Looking ahead to 2023
PSU loses the program’s all-time leading passer in Sean Clifford, along three of their top four receivers, Parker Washington, Mitchell Tinsley and TE Brenton Strange, all of whom harbor NFL aspirations. Though there will not be as much continuity in the passing game with their departures, new starting QB Drew Allar earned an elite .9852 247Sports player rating as a recruit and is the most projectable NFL QB prospect in the 2025 class.
Keandre Lambert-Smith is the lone returning starter and could be poised to ascend if he can stay healthy after missing several games last year. He caught 8-of-8 targets for 207 yards and two touchdowns over the last two games after returning to health. He will battle for WR1 status with Kent State transfer Dante Cephas who tore the MAC apart for 1,986 receiving yards and 2.98 yards per route over the last two seasons. If Allar can live up to his lofty billing, the passing attack should play up to last year’s standard, and likely surpass it.
The offensive line had to overcome multiple injuries down the stretch, with LT Fashanu, LG Landon Tengwell and RT Caedan Wallace missing most of the second-half of the season, pressing their understudies into action. This year, all five starting linemen have starting experience, spanning 66 starts between them. With improved line health, first-year starting QB Allar will likely see a decrease in the 29% pressure rate that Sean Clifford experienced last year, a number that ranked 74th in the country. Accordingly, with five road-graders leading the way, the dynamic sophomore duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen (1,921 combined rush yards LY) could top 200 YPG for the first time since Saquon Barkley was toting the rock for PSU.
Defensively, the DE trio of Chop Robinson (92.4 PFF rush grade/48 pressures/10.6% PFP), Adisa Isaac (36 pressures/13% win rate) and Dani Dennis-Sutton (22.6% win rate/10.4 PRP) are poised to terrorize opposing signal callers. Big-bellied war daddy IDL PJ Mustipher moves on, but DL Zane Durant (11 pressures/70.0 PFF rush grade) started five games as a true freshman alongside Hadeem Beamon, so they will be well stocked on both the interior and the edge.
WLB Abdul Carter earned second team All-Big Ten recognition (83 run grade/20 pressures/35 stops/6.5 sacks) as a true freshman, while SLB Curtis Jacobs is the shot caller (75.8 tackle grade/24 pressures/27 stops) who sets the tone in run support. There will be very few holes in the front-seven for teams to run through this season. Which is a great sign, as Penn State is 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush, 8th-best in FBS (avg: .580).
The Penn State secondary could legitimately be the best unit in the nation, even accounting for the fact they lost Ji’Ayir Brown and Joey Porter Jr. to the NFL. CB1 Kalen King is All-American caliber who is looking like a potential Day 1 NFL draft choice. King led the team with a 4.2% havoc rate and 15 PBU to go with 3.0 TFL and three interceptions in 2022. CB2 Johnny Dixon actually played more snaps than Joey Porter Jr. last season (462-to-438) with a strong 3.3% havoc rate, eight PBU and a 40% completion rate allowed. FS Keaton Ellis is an established veteran who has 20 starts under his belt, while SS Jaylen Reed has been groomed to take over for the departed Brown. This group should be able to replicate Penn State’s 10.1% DB havoc rate that ranked third in the country last year.
Analyzing Penn State’s Win Total
PSU plays the 60th ranked schedule and opens with two straight cake walks at home against West Virginia and Delaware before the Big Ten slate kicks in. A tough Week 3 away game against @Illinois' (9.5 projected spread) stout defensive front will be their first real test, with a home tilt against fellow Big Ten East stalwart Iowa (6.5 proj spread) the week after in a pair of very important early-season matchups. The next three weeks serve as a reset with a trip to @Northwestern followed up with a Week 6 bye and then a tuneup vs. UMass before their momentous Week 8 showdown with @Ohio State. The Nittany Lions head back home to face B10 West cellar-dweller Indiana, the head east to @Maryland ahead of their season-defining home game against division rival Michigan Week 11. PSU wraps up the seasons at home against Rutgers before finishing away against a sputtering Michigan State squad.
Penn State currently sits at Over/Under 9.5 Wins (-145 O). I think the Nittany Lions could legitimately win the Big Ten if Allar rises to the occasion and is a great value at +600. I'm strongly backing Over 9.5 Wins for the Nittany Lions.
