2023-2024 Fantasy Basketball ADP Analysis: Uncertainty of Damian Lillard trade hurting draft stock
The NBA fantasy season is officially less than a month away! Training camp starts as early as this Wednesday for some teams, with all teams reporting by next Tuesday. And the way the rumors are flying, we might even see Damian Lillard traded in the near future.
Still, Yahoo Fantasy's draft platform has been open for a while, so there's been plenty of draft data to explore. Today, I'll summarize the notable ADP movers over the past week.
As you continue to prepare for your drafts, check out my latest points, and category rankings along with my positional tiers series (PG/SG/SF/PF/C).
Let's dive in!
Guards
Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers
Preseason ADP: 10.6
ADP last seven days: 13.2
Difference in ADP: +2.6
When will Lillard get traded? That's the question basketball fans and fantasy managers are itching to know. Yahoo Senior writer Jake Fischer confirmed that the Raptors and Bulls have emerged as possible trade destinations for Lillard — even though he requested to go to the Heat. This uncertainty is driving Lillard's ADP out of the first round, so buy the dip while you still can. I have him ranked ninth overall in nine-category leagues, and unless he goes to the Heat, it'll likely stay that way.
Trae Young, PG, Atlanta Hawks
Preseason ADP: 21.3
ADP last seven days: 17.6
Difference in ADP: -3.7
Young's ADP moved up a few spots over the past week to a mid-second-round pick. I have him ranked 17th nine-category and expect that to be his floor. Young would benefit from improvements in his turnover rate and FG percentage — which is why I have 11th overall in points leagues — but he has the upside of a late-first-rounder for category leagues. He's one of only a few players who can average 25 points with 10 assists for a season and play 70-plus games.
Cade Cunningham, PG/SG, Detroit Pistons
Preseason ADP: 40.9
ADP last seven days: 35.0
Difference in ADP: -5.9
After playing only 12 games last season, Cunningham is gaining steam into the third round. Considering what the Pistons did in the offseason to improve their squad around their franchise player, it's justified. He's fully healthy and turned a lot of heads playing in the "Luka Doncic role" for the Select Team for USA Basketball this past summer. He's entering his third season and will be a stat stuffer on both ends of the floor.
D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Los Angeles Lakers
Preseason ADP: 95.9
ADP last seven days: 105.3
Difference in ADP: +9.4
Russell finished in the top 90 in per-game value last season and in 17 games with the Lakers, averaged 17 points with six assists, 2.7 threes and 48/41/74 shooting splits. His contract could be a tempting trade asset for the Lakers, with him on the books for $18M this season (one million more than Rui Hachimura) with a player option for next season. Still, Austin Reaves and a healthy LeBron James will eat into his assist rate, and it wouldn't surprise me if his production fell to his 2023 playoff numbers of 13 points with five assists.
Forwards
Chet Holmgren, PF/C, Oklahoma City Thunder
Preseason ADP: 46.0
ADP last seven days: 49.7
Difference in ADP: +3.7
My bet for Rookie of the Year: I'm surprised to see Holmgren's ADP fall. At cost, I prefer him over Victor Wembanyama because they have a similar skill set for fantasy. Their size and length make them cheat codes offensively, with the ability to block shots at a high rate.
Zion Williamson, PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans
Preseason ADP: 66.1
ADP last seven days: 60.3
Difference in ADP: -5.8
Williamson has reportedly been at the Pelicans' practice facility more than ever, but can you trust him? If you do, then grabbing him around the fifth round could become a heist. His injury concerns and off-the-court drama are certainly baked into his ADP, but Zion is a top-40 player on a per-game basis.
Patrick Williams, PF, Chicago Bulls
Preseason ADP: 145.9
ADP last seven days: 138.4
Difference in ADP: -7.5
I wanted to throw in a player that's trending up more than most in fantasy drafts, and that's Williams. He's a late-rounder now (21% rostered), but keep an eye on him if you're looking for a forward with strong peripherals in category leagues. Unless he takes a significant leap in scoring, he's not a player I'd prioritize in points formats.
Centers
Domantas Sabonis, PF/C, Sacramento Kings
Preseason ADP: 19.2
ADP last seven days: 16.8
Difference in ADP: -2.4
Sabonis is one of the best passing and rebounding bigs in the game. He's also reliable from an availability standpoint, never playing less than 60 games in his career. He should be an early second-round pick.
Mark Williams, C, Charlotte Hornets
Preseason ADP: 119.6
ADP last seven days: 99.7
Difference in ADP: -19.9
My latest rankings update may be driving up the price for Mark Williams, but I like where this its headed. I have him 95th in category leagues and 84th in points, but that could still undersell his fantasy potential this season. He's on my sleeper list, but that may not be the case by the time the season starts. Being paired up with a dynamic point guard like LaMelo Ball will be great for his offensive production and he should be a strong bet to average a double-double with over 1.5 blocks per game.
Zach Collins, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs
Preseason ADP: 124.6
ADP last seven days: 115.1
Difference in ADP: -9.5
He's the starting center for a rebuilding Spurs franchise that will likely be cautious with their prized No. 1 overall pick (Wemby). Collins showed that he could be a viable fantasy asset late last season when he averaged 16.7 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.3 blocks and 1.7 threes with 48/40/81 shooting splits after the All-Star break. He's moved up my draft boards, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him within the top 100 picks by the start of the season.
