2022 NBA draft: 10 bold rookie predictions for the 2022-23 season
The 2022-23 regular season officially tipped off in the NBA on Tuesday as four teams hit the court to much fanfare in front of a national audience on TNT.
The Golden State Warriors proved to be the team to beat as defending champions after making easy work of the Los Angeles Lakers. Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics showed little signs of any inner turmoil with an impressive win over the Philadelphia 76ers.
Of course, there will be plenty of other storylines to follow in each conference as the season progresses. Several teams figure to be in the playoff picture after a busy offseason while others will continue to develop and progress in their respective rebuilding efforts.
The incoming rookie class also figures to be worth monitoring, as well.
The group was dealt an unfortunate injury to No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren, who will miss the entire season, but the class figures to be entertaining to watch. Some players have already put themselves on the map after a strong exhibition run.
Rookie Wire decided to put on our thinking caps and predict the future. We made 10 bold predictions for the class and offered an opinion on what we might see this season. To make this exercise fun, we will come back at the end of the season and see how we did.
Here is how we fared last season. We didn’t do particularly well.
Charlotte will tank for Victor Wembanyama
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Projected No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama is the real deal.
He proved that earlier this month when he and Metropolitans 92 traveled from France to face the NBA G League Ignite for two exhibition games.
Wembanyama averaged 36.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.5 blocks and two assists in those games. He wrapped up his trip to the U.S. leaving little doubt about who the No. 1 pick should be next year. Some execs even believe he should sit this season because he is a lock to be the top pick.
With Wembanyama dazzling in front of the collective basketball world, several teams are expected to tank for the top pick. The tanking efforts this year will probably even top those of past seasons when players like Zion Williamson, Cade Cunningham and others were available.
The Hornets could emerge as one of those teams.
The team did little to improve its roster from last season when it missed the playoffs. The organization then fired James Borrego and opted to bring Steve Clifford back as head coach. Teams under Clifford typically perform well early but that could change this year.
Miles Bridges’ status this season is in question as the restricted free agent is facing three felony domestic violence charges. LaMelo Ball is expected to miss the start of the year with a Grade 2 ankle sprain, and the group went winless in the preseason.
Of course, results of the preseason are often meaningless but it is noteworthy nonetheless. If the team finds itself struggling by January, it could begin to look ahead to next season and tank for Wembanyama, or even Scoot Henderson.
At least 2 second-round picks will make the Rising Stars game
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The annual Rising Stars game features the top rookies and sophomores on the first night of All-Star Weekend, which will take place on Feb. 17-19 in Salt Lake City, Utah.
The format last year saw 12 rookies, 12 sophomores and four players from the NBA G League Ignite compete during the festivities. They were drafted into four teams and competed in three games as Team Barry won with Cade Cunningham earning MVP honors.
If the current format holds, 12 rookie players should once again earn the nod to compete in the showcase game. Of those players, at least two drafted in the second round figure to have a great opportunity to be selected to participate in the festivities.
Several notable players slipped to the second round this year, including Andrew Nembhard (Indiana Pacers), Caleb Houstan (Orlando Magic), Jaylin Williams (Oklahoma City Thunder), Jaden Hardy (Dallas Mavericks) and Kennedy Chandler (Memphis Grizzlies) among others.
Those players, plus others, could put up some good numbers to earn recognition should they find themselves playing large roles with their respective teams. As a bonus, we predict that it will be Nembhard and Hardy that compete in the game.
Tari Eason will be named to the All-Rookie first team
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Tari Eason, the 17th pick, turned in a great run with the Rockets during the preseason and looks poised to continue that into the regular season in Houston.
He averaged 17.8 points, nine rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.3 steals in four games on 45.5% shooting from 3-point range. He finished in the top five in total scoring (third) and rebounding (second) among rookies throughout the preseason.
The 19-year-old earned some high praise from assistant coach John Lucas II, who compared him to Hall of Famer Dennis Rodman. The team loves his activity on the court, which is very reminiscent of the way Rodman would rebound, defend and bring energy.
Eason figures to have the opportunity to log heavy minutes this season for the rebuilding Rockets, further helping his cause to earn some recognition at the end of the season. We believe Eason is in for a monster rookie year and should absolutely be worth your attention.
For more coverage on the Rockets, visit Rockets Wire
Jalen Duren will lead the rookie class in rebounding and double-doubles
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Jalen Duren, who was voted as one of the steals in the draft, emerged as a force in the paint in college last season at Memphis and has already shown off that ability in the preseason with the Detroit Pistons.
He averaged 4.7 points and 12 rebounds in three games off of the bench. He hauled in at least 10 rebounds in each game, and finished second in that category among all rookies. He only had two blocks, but figures to also find success in that area this season.
Given his ability, Duren figures to have a great chance to lead the class in rebounding and double-doubles. He won’t be counted on for his offense like he will with his rebounding, but he has an evolving offensive game that should enable him to see playing time this season.
Evan Mobley led the rookie class in both categories last year after finishing with 8.3 rebounds per game and 21 double-doubles. Since Duren projects to have a smaller role than Mobley did, we have him penciled in for 10 double-doubles.
Jalen Williams will finish as a Rookie of the Year finalist
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Jalen Williams flourished with the Oklahoma City Thunder in the preseason and is poised to see great success on the court during his upcoming rookie campaign.
Williams averaged 14.4 points, 5.2 assists, three rebounds and 1.8 steals in five preseason games. He was tied for third with 26 total assists while he finished second in rookie scoring. He had at least 10 points in each game and dished out a preseason-high 13 assists on Oct. 9.
He mostly came off the bench in the preseason but could eventually find himself in the starting lineup. He has tremendous court vision and thrived in pick-and-roll situations with or without the ball. Put it all together and you have a player that will make some noise this year.
While we are not picking him to win Rookie of the Year (more on that below), we believe Williams has a great chance to finish as a finalist for the award. He will have ample playing time and has proven he can produce when called upon.
This is in addition to earning a Rising Stars nod and an All-Rookie first-team placement, of course. As you can see, we expect a big year from Williams.
For more coverage on the Thunder, visit Thunder Wire
Bennedict Mathurin will have a 40-point game
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Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin led all first-year players in scoring during the preseason and looks poised to have a strong rookie campaign, as a result.
Mathurin wrapped up the preseason by averaging 19.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.3 assists in four games. He scored at least 15 points in each game and tied Shaedon Sharpe for the highest-scoring game by a rookie with 27 points on Oct. 12.
He finished sixth among all players in scoring.
The sixth pick consistently drew praise from head coach Rick Carlisle throughout training camp for his ability as a scorer and finisher at the basket. They even worked together over the summer on finishing, which helped Mathurin get to the line this preseason.
Given his ability to score from all over the floor, and get to the free-throw line, Mathurin could eclipse the 40-point mark this year. The feat has only been accomplished by six rookies since 2010, but we like him here to join that list.
Jalen Green was the last rookie to reach that mark in a game.
Jaden Ivey will lead the rookie class in assists and steals
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Jaden Ivey established himself in college as a player that can fill the stat sheet on a nightly basis, and that should result in a productive rookie year with the Detroit Pistons.
He finished as one of two players in the country last season (Paolo Banchero, Duke) to record at least 600 points, 175 rebounds, 100 assists, 30 steals and 20 blocked shots at Purdue. It resulted in Ivey earning consensus All-American honors.
The fifth pick finished the preseason by posting 12 points, four assists and three rebounds in four games. He was the starting point guard each game and projects to be a full-time starter this season for head coach Dwane Casey barring injury.
After emerging as a productive college player, Ivey should continue that in the NBA with the Pistons as the team looks to improve upon its 23-59 record from last season.
Keegan Murray will lead the rookie class in scoring
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Keegan Murray has been an absolute stud at each step to this point of the process, from summer league to his short run with the Sacramento Kings during the preseason.
He was named the MVP of the Las Vegas Summer League and followed that up by averaging 16 points, 4.5 rebounds, two steals and one assist on 70% shooting from 3-point range in the preseason. However, his run was cut to two games after entering the health and safety protocol.
The fourth pick figures to play a large role with the Kings this season, which will help his chances of producing. Kings head coach Mike Brown has been non-committal as to who would start at power forward, but Murray figures to have a chance to eventually earn that spot.
With Murray expected to log heavy minutes, and his overall ability to this point, we believe he will lead the rookie class in scoring this year. As a bonus for this prediction, we’ll also say that Murray will finish as a finalist for Rookie of the Year.
Jabari Smith Jr. will set the NBA rookie 3-point record
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Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr. is viewed as one of the top shooters in the rookie class this year, regardless of position. He set the Auburn record last season for a freshman for points (576) and 3-pointers (79) after hitting 42% of his 5.53 attempts per game.
The third pick struggled a bit in summer league, converting only 25.9% from beyond the arc. However, he bounced back during his lone preseason appearance, recording 21 points, eight rebounds and two assists on 5-of-8 shooting from distance on Oct. 2.
Utah Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell holds the rookie record for most 3-pointers in a season with 187. Mitchell shot 34% (187-of-550) from beyond the arc as a rookie and averaged 33.4 minutes per game in the 2017-18 season.
Smith should see plenty of playing time this season with the Rockets to have the opportunity to break the record by Mitchell. He is a better shooter than Mitchell was at this stage of his career and has all of the tools in place to top him.
We are hoping that the fourth time is the charm with this prediction after previously whiffing with Tyler Herro, Aleksej Pokusevski and Trey Murphy III.
Paolo Banchero will win Rookie of the Year
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Paolo Banchero started off a bit slow with the Orlando Magic during the preseason but wrapped up his run with his three best performances heading into the regular season.
Banchero totaled 17 points, seven rebounds, five steals and four assists over the first two preseason games. He followed that up by scoring at least 17 points in his last three games with a preseason-high of 19 points coming on Oct. 7.
The No. 1 pick is projected to have a strong year and enters the season as the favorite to win Rookie of the Year at plus-200. He figures to start every game this season and emerged as an integral piece of the offense already in the preseason.
Picking the odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year may not seem like that bold of a prediction. However, there have only been three winners since 2010 that were the odds-on favorite to win the award entering the season, respectively.
Look for Banchero to add his name to that list.
