2022-23 Fantasy Basketball: East preview and predictions for every team
The NBA is back! And in anticipation of Tuesday's tip-off, I'm previewing the Eastern and Western Conferences. First up, the East. I'll break down their projected win total (courtesy of BetMGM), projected record and finish within the division. And, of course, some fantasy predictions ahead of Opening Night.
Click here for my Western Conference predictions
Atlantic Division:
Philadelphia 76ers — 53-29 (Projected win total: 50.5)
Boston Celtics — 51-31 (Projected win total: 54.5)
Brooklyn Nets — 47-35 (Projected win total: 50.5)
Toronto Raptors — 45-37 (Projected win total: 46.5)
New York Knicks — 41-41(Projected win total: 38.5)
Comments/fantasy predictions:
The Atlantic Division is one of the most competitive divisions in the East and the NBA at large. Out of the 15 teams in the Eastern Conference, only four teams have projected win totals over 50 games. The Atlantic Division contains three of the four teams (Celtics, Sixers, Nets).
Sixers: The Sixers may not be the best team on paper, but Daryl Morey did an exceptional job bolstering the Sixers' depth in the offseason. They were a 51-win team a year ago, and with James Harden healthy and rising star Tyrese Maxey, the Sixers have the best value at +275 to win the division. My love for Maxey is well-documented and Joel Embiid should be in for another MVP-like campaign. I think Tobias Harris will disappoint fantasy managers in head-to-head leagues but will continue to be useful in rotisserie formats this season. Success for the Sixers hinges on Harden's health, Embiid's decision-making and his willingness to cede usage and touches to Maxey.
Celtics: The Celtics also made a splash in the offseason by acquiring PG Malcolm Brogdon, but the absence of Robert Williams and Ime Udoka will likely cost them some regular-season wins. But I can't discount the Celtics too much, as I anticipate they'll be top-10 in offensive and defensive rating again this season. We know Boston's mainstays will be productive for fantasy managers — Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Al Horford. But players like Derrick White and Grant Williams are late-round picks that should also remain fantasy relevant this season.
Nets: The Nets are arguably the best team on paper, but organizationally, they're competing with the Phoenix Suns on the "hot mess" list of NBA franchises. By all accounts, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are committed to winning in Brooklyn (for now) and Ben Simmons being back is a significant boost for a team that sorely lacked a defensive identity. I try to remain optimistic, but I can't trust a squad whose most important players are unreliable. Kyrie will inevitably miss games for something and Durant's battled injuries over the past two seasons. But if they can weather the storm, they'll be far more dangerous than last year's team that was swept in a first-round playoff exit.
Joe Harris, Seth Curry and TJ Warren are out to start the season, so microwave bucket-getter Cam Thomas should be a nice source of points and threes early on. Center Nic Claxton will provide bench depth for fantasy managers looking for blocks, steals, and a high FG percentage.
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Raptors: Nick Nurse plays his starters a ridiculous amount of minutes, so if you picked up Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr and Scottie Barnes, congratulations. The Raptors have enough talent to make the playoffs, but 46.5 wins are too rich for a team that plays their starters such heavy minutes in an 82-game season. Injuries are bound to happen and their bench depth is not enticing.
Knicks: The Knicks finished 37-45 last year. Assuming they'll go under because "hey, it's the Knicks" is probably a reasonable argument — they have the lowest winning percentage of any NBA franchise since 2000. However, I think the market is too low on the Knicks this time. I'm not expecting an epic turnaround, but to have their win total lower than last season is going to be a mistake. Jalen Brunson is an underrated signing, and his leadership and winning pedigree is why I'm higher on the Knicks. He's one of three players I've bet (at +2500) to win Most Improved Player this season (along with Tyrese Haliburton and Tyrese Maxey). All-in-all, I think the Knicks did well re-signing Mitchell Robinson and bringing in Isaiah Hartenstein. They have young pieces like Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin, who've flashed when given an opportunity. I expect we'll see less of Julius Randle being the primary ball-handler and RJ Barrett emerging as "the guy" offensively. Insert Brunson into that equation, and I see a middle-of-the-road team that can be .500 this season.
Central Division:
Milwaukee Bucks — 52-30 (Projected win total: 53.5)
Cleveland Cavaliers — 49-33 (Projected win total: 46.5)
Chicago Bulls — 42-40 (Projected win total: 41.5)
Detroit Pistons — 33-49 (Projected win total: 29.5)
Indiana Pacers — 25-57 (Projected win total: 24.5)
Bucks: Milwaukee churns out wins. Coming off 51 wins a year ago, 50 wins is a safe floor for the 2021 NBA champions. The roster is built for consistency, but nothing is pushing me over the edge to eclipse 53.5 wins, so I'll be taking the under. It doesn't help that they'll be without Khris Middleton to start the season, as he's still recovering from offseason wrist surgery.
Outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Middleton, and Bobby Portis, I'm not eager to invest in Bucks players. Grayson Allen and Brook Lopez will be streaming options in 10-12 team leagues, but everyone else is likely a temporary streaming option.
Cavs: Cleveland might actually rock again after trading for All-Star G Donovan Mitchell. I love this team from a fantasy and betting perspective because they're going to play with pace and be able to lock in defensively. Caris LeVert is an underrated defender who is slated to start at SF, joining an already stellar frontcourt consisting of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. I'm taking the over on 46.5 wins and believe four of their five starters (Darius Garland, Mitchell, Mobley, and Allen) will be top-50 in per-game fantasy value this season.
Bulls: DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic are a solid trio offensively, but defensively, woof. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Bulls projected starting lineup of Ayo Dosumu, LaVine, DeRozan, Patrick Williams, and Vucevic allowed 142.2 points per possession to opposing teams in 65 possessions together last season. It's a small sample size and it's going to be very hard to be that bad for an entire season. This team didn't do anything in the offseason to improve their chances in a challenging division. I'm staying away from betting their win total, but my lean is over.
Fantasy-wise, Williams has looked good in the preseason — though he's admitted to being passive anytime he's on the floor with DeRozan and LaVine. Still, he does the dirty work defensively and should shoot a high percentage from the floor in his third NBA season. Alex Caruso is also a steals specialist that should be rostered in all leagues while Lonzo Ball is out of commission. Oh, and apparently, Andre Drummond shoots threes now? What a time.
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Pistons: It's a new day in the Motor City, and Pistons head coach Dwayne Casey has some fun young hoopers at his disposal. Cade Cunningham is on breakout watch in only his second NBA season, and the Pistons surrounded him with players who can shoot and make plays around the rim. While I like their chances of getting to 30 wins, this is still a rebuilding franchise. I'm expecting big things from Saadiq Bey this season, and I think he'll outperform his current eighth-round ADP.
Pacers: Rick Carlisle has only had five losing seasons entering his 21st season as an NBA head coach. Sorry, Rick, you're about to have your sixth. The Pacers' roster consists of an exciting mix of young players and veterans, but they haven't been shy about wanting to move Buddy Hield or Myles Turner. We'll see if or when it happens, but as a guy with many shares of Tyrese Haliburton, Jalen Smith, and Bennedict Mathurin, I'd love to see a trade happen sooner than later. This team will put in valiant efforts on most nights, but I don't want to bet on their win total.
Southeast Division:
Miami Heat — 49-33 (Projected win total: 49.5)
Atlanta Hawks — 43-39 (Projected win total: 46.5)
Washington Wizards — 36-46 (Projected win total: 35.5)
Orlando Magic — 30-52 (Projected win total: 26.5)
Charlotte Hornets — 26-56 (Projected win total: 34.5)
Heat: The Heat didn't do much to improve their roster from a season ago, but lucky for them, none of the teams in their division pose a legitimate threat to their reign. The loss of PJ Tucker leaves a void in their frontcourt that I don't know if Caleb Martin can withstand for an entire season, but this team has proven veterans who know how to win. Kyle Lowry's situation is still a bit murky but having Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, and Victor Oladipo as backups will keep them afloat. Rather than betting their win total, I'd elect to lay the juice at -155 for them to win the division. Omer Yurtseven is on my watch list in 12-14 team formats because he's a per-minute beast and a double-double threat anytime he gets minutes.
Hawks: I have more questions than answers, so for now, I'll keep it to betting the under on the Hawks' win total of 46.5. I need to see more from the dynamic duo of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray before I put my faith in the Hawks. Plus, it doesn't help when Clint Capela and John Collins are consistently swirling in trade rumors.
Young, Murray and Collins are all poised to have solid fantasy seasons, but I like De'Andre Hunter as a late-round target. His ADP is 147, and in a contract year, he'll have a lot to prove. I'm projecting him to be more of a fantasy asset outside of scoring in his fourth NBA season.
Wizards: Bradley Beal is healthy, and the Wizards brought in Monte Morris and Will Barton from the Denver Nuggets this offseason. On paper, this team is much better, and if Kristaps Porzingis can stay healthy (a big if), this team should outperform the market. I lean the over on the Wizards' win total at 35.5, as I think Beal is tired of losing and has a competent team of professionals surrounding him.
Morris is in line to have his best statistical season as the new starting point guard for the Wizards. He's efficient, has a low turnover rate, and will average five assists in his first season in Washington. Daniel Gafford is your guy if you need a cheap source of blocks on waivers.
Magic: A team I never thought I would be excited about has me extra hyped heading into the regular season. There's so much fantasy appeal with this roster between Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. Even Cole Anthony is a guy I've been targeting late in drafts with the injuries to Jalen Suggs and Markelle Fultz. Anthony will probably fizzle out once Suggs returns, but the trio mentioned above of Banchero, Wagner and Carter are foundational pieces that will make a splash in fantasy this season. I like the over on their win total.
Hornets: The buzz is wearing off in Charlotte. Between Miles Bridges facing serious charges and LaMelo Ball's ankle sprain, I'm off the Hornets. Terry Rozier is one of my sleepers mainly because he consistently gives you third-round value despite going two rounds later in drafts. I don't have many shares of Gordon Hayward or Kelly Oubre, but PJ Washington should have a breakout campaign, as he's likely stepping into over 30 minutes of playing time each night.
