2021 NFL pick ’em: Over/unders are hard
In previous iterations of a post where I do NFL picks, I did every game against the spread. That was basically impossible, so I tried switching it up and diversifying what wagers I looked at. In some ways it’s been good, in other ways it’s been terrible.
It turns out I cannot for the life of me pick NFL over/unders. I’m going to continue doing it for the sake of the post, but my goodness I will never go to a book and wager on one. The good news is if you fade my over/unders you’d be 8-4 this year.
To the picks!
Every game straight up
Kareem Elgazzar / USA TODAY NETWORK
Jaguars at Bengals
Colts at Dolphins
Browns at Vikings
Texans at Bills
Chiefs at Eagles
Lions at Bears
Titans at Jets
Giants at Saints
Washington at Falcons
Panthers at Cowboys
Seahawks at 49ers
Cardinals at Rams
Ravens at Broncos
Buccaneers at Patriots
Raiders at Chargers
Last week: 10-6
Season: 28-22
Picks against the spread
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Texans (+17.5) at Bills
Buffalo might win this one by 40, but getting 17.5 points is the move just on principle.
Chiefs (-6.5) at Eagles
Kansas City is going to have a bounce-back week eventually and Philadelphia looked mostly bad against Dallas. The Chiefs should put up a ton of points.
Lions (+2.5) at Bears
Divisional games are always interesting and the Lions have been better than their 0-3 record. Plus, does anyone trust Matt Nagy to maximize an offense with Justin Fields at the helm?
Buccaneers (-6.5) at Patriots
Tampa Bay is way better than New England and this spread should probably be closer to 9 or 10.
Last week: 1-2
Season: 4-5
Over/Unders
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Chiefs at Eagles, over 54.5
While Kansas City might put up a ton of points, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts could cause some real problems for the Chiefs’ defense.
Texans at Bills, over 46.5
Houston might only score 10, but Buffalo should put up 40.
Titans at Jets, under 44.5
No AJ Brown and no Julio Jones for the Titans means this one has all the earmarks of a knock-down, drag-out, low-scoring game.
Steelers at Packers, under 44.5
The under is 3-0 in Steelers games this season, and a healthy TJ Watt could cause some problems for a Green Bay offense that’s been rolling the last couple weeks.
Last week: 1-4
Season: 4-8
Lock of the week
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Buccaneers (-6.5) at Patriots
It feels like there’s no chance Tampa Bay lets this game stay close after losing in Los Angeles last week.
Last week: 0-1
Season: 2-1
Upset of the week
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Seahawks (+110) at 49ers
If George Kittle doesn’t play it’s hard to imagine San Francisco keeping up with a Seahawks offense that can put up points in bunches.
Last week: 1-0
Season: 1-2
1
1
