20 thoughts on Colts free agency, L'Jarius Sneed and where this goes from here

Twenty thoughts on where the Colts stand in free agency:

1. In one week, the Colts have made 11 signings. All but two of them were in-house players, and the two outside additions are for backups. So, it hasn't been a headline-generating, but that's often how business goes with the Colts. I don't think we should brush off what they did either.

Indianapolis handed out more than $200 million in contracts to in-house free agents, with more than $110 million in guarantees. So, although it is fair to wonder how they plan to get better than a 9-8 record and third-place AFC South finish -- and we'll get to that -- it's not fair to say they haven't been spending. Among the signings are a two-time 1,000-yard wide receiver, a Pro Bowl cornerback, the AFC's leader in tackles and one of the NFL's premier nose tackles.

It's nice to have players worthy of extending, because many of the teams throwing money around this time of year don't. See the Titans, Raiders and Panthers.

Colts must do more in free agency for this offseason to be successful

2. Now, the Colts are trying to go places this season, and they have problems the draft can't solve, like a void of experience in the secondary. So in-house moves cannot be the end of this.

Right now, the Colts have exactly one veteran at cornerback or safety, and that's Moore. He's great to have, but he and a breakout from Julian Blackmon at strong safety last season were not nearly enough to keep an otherwise green secondary from getting torched down the stretch by Jake Browning and Taylor Heinicke. That makes you wonder how this season will go when they have two games each against Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud, plus dates with Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff and Jordan Love.

Plenty of moves are left to be made, with good candidates at both positions. But the only way this offseason will be a success for the Colts is if they do something substantial in this area.

The Colts and L'Jarius Sneed

3. This takes us to L'Jarius Sneed.

He's been the talk of the Internet lately, creating a line between fact and fiction. Part of the hype is that Sneed is a player in demand. But that demand can lead to some wild speculation and rumors the longer it plays out.

There was never a deal in place between the Colts and Chiefs, and the Colts' interest as a player in this bidding war has been greatly exaggerated, a team source told IndyStar. They check in on a lot of players this time of year and did last week on Sneed, as our Tyler Dragon of USA Today reported, before the Colts signed all those in-house deals totaling more than $100 million in guarantees.

Sneed's cost is multi-faceted with a player who needs a trade package of draft picks and a new contract. A fit with the cost-oriented Colts has started to feel like a stretch.

First, the Chiefs have to come to an agreement on a trade package, which, given their cap constraints and recent signing of Hollywood Brown, is not the biggest hurdle. Placing the franchise tag on Sneed passes a huge baton of leverage to him, as he has a $19.8 million guaranteed salary this season to play for the defending champions with Patrick Mahomes. That's his worst-case scenario.

You can see how things spiral here, where the cost becomes a mash-up of the draft picks to get the Chiefs to say yes with the multi-year, highly guaranteed contract to get Sneed to say yes over the $19 million ticket to playing with the Super Bowl favorite. Sneed is a phenomenal traveling cornerback who makes impact plays and is at his best when it matters the most in the postseason.

But there's a price limit on any acquisition.

4. So, why are the Colts so often linked, and why aren't they making the move?

They're easy to link on the outside because they have an obvious need and haven't addressed it much. They signed Moore, but he plays in the slot. They're still super young on the outside. Their lack of pivots have made them unlike two teams that Sports Illustrated's Matt Verderame reported were once in the Sneed sweepstakes and dropped out: Detroit, which traded for Carlton Davis; and Atlanta, which just promised $100 million guaranteed to Kirk Cousins.

The more Indianapolis is perceived to be in the mix, the better for Sneed and the Chiefs. Markets grow as the bidding pool does, and perception is reality sometimes, too.

Perception has swallowed reality as it pertains to the Colts. They don't often win bidding wars, and they haven't remotely tried to win this one yet.

5. This does not mean they definitely won't land Sneed, of course. These things are so fluid, where talks break down or pick up based on desperation or rising offers amid a tangled web of conversations with many teams. It's why we won't report that deals are done until they are and why we rarely speak in absolutes.

It's possible that Sneed's camp eventually decides it wants a multi-year contract right now and changes the asking price. It's possible the Chiefs dramatically lower theirs just to free up the cap. Within those shifts in price, it's possible the Colts re-engage to fill a clear hole. But they wouldn't be the only team suddenly more interested in that scenario.

As of now, it would be a surprise if the Colts won this bidding war.

6. So, let's get to the signings the Colts did make. Each one, with how he fits the plan:

Michael Pittman Jr. signed a three-year, $70 million extension that makes him the eighth highest-paid receiver in annual value. It was interesting to see him opt for a three-year deal in order to try to re-do the contract in two seasons, when he knows that deals from Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown will change the landscape, and he'll only be 28.

MORE: The multiple personalities of Michael Pittman Jr.

It's a good deal for both sides because the Colts aren't spending wildly at the position, yet can become elite at it if they nail a high pick on a cost-controlled receiver in this year's draft. The Colts need Pittman as a go-to receiver Anthony Richardson can lean on, and that high volume of targets has been what Pittman has always asked for.

The contract is a check on them both to deliver. It's a competitive, healthy marriage.

7. To get full value for Sneed's abilities to shadow a top receiver, you need to be able to move him into the slot, which just happens to be where Moore spends all of his time in nickel sets. And yet the Colts came through and made Moore the highest-paid nickel cornerback in history at $30 million over three years.

That doesn't necessarily make the Sneed possibility dead, as it would help to have another nickel option. But Moore thought his return was 50/50 at the end of the season, and they came through with an investment that shows priorities.

It's been a journey for Moore, through not having a featured role in Gus Bradley's defense to rediscovering one last year with three interceptions, two touchdowns and eight tackles-for-loss. This contract says something about the abilities but also the strides he made as the communicator and off-the-field leader, which became more important the younger the secondary grew.

8. Grover Stewart always wanted to be back in Indianapolis, the only team he's ever played for. He's 30 now, at a position that can wear down with mileage, coming off a season with a six-game suspension for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing drug policy. So a three-year, $39 million deal -- the inflation-adjusted version of his last contract -- is a victory for him.

The Colts allowed 4.7 yards per carry in six games without him last year, compared to 3.7 in 11 games with. They had nothing in the pipelines, and it's not realistic to go to the draft to find a physically developed nose tackle. The plan in signing Stewart, Zaire Franklin and Moore is to make the run defense so stout that teams have to deal with the pass rush.

Last year, that plan finished top-five in sacks. But they are paying up for now.

9. Franklin's extension came about largely due to his breakout, with two straight years of setting the franchise tackle record. But it also happened after he approached the Colts in November and asked for a new deal, which came right around the time they decided to release Shaquille Leonard from a monster contract at the same position.

Franklin's three-year, $31.3 million contract is about more than his play, which is excellent but not as premium to today's game. It's also about his leadership, which is now about being one of the best and most-tenured players on the team but also as a guy who rose up from being a seventh-round pick. That leadership has extended to the offensive side of the ball.

He's become key to the culture, which can't be everything for a team that hasn't won a playoff game since 2018 but is a helpful pillar for a squad with a young coach and quarterback.

10. Tyquan Lewis' return is about a marriage between a franchise that has always believed in him and a player at home in that place and the reduced but premium role he plays. After two straight patellar tendon tears, Lewis saw his snaps drop from 62% in 2022 to 37% last season, and yet he had a career-high four sacks, nine tackles-for loss and 13 quarterback hits. Teams noticed, he finally had a market form and the Colts decided to keep him at two years and $12 million.

This is an important player if the injury histories for Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo flare up. The Colts have to be careful not to take a step back in the pass rush after an Indianapolis-record 51 sacks.

Players want to stay with the Colts

11. It's encouraging that free agents with options now want to come back to Indianapolis. At the end of the Jeff Saturday experiment, I know of multiple players who were looking for the first train out of town, and it didn't matter what Indianapolis was going to offer them because they were never coming back.

The shift has been back to how players viewed this franchise before the 2022 strangeness. It speaks to Shane Steichen's detailed and hard-wired approach to getting the best out of every player he has.

12. Rigoberto Sanchez's market never developed much, so he signed for three years and $7.5 million. But it's also about perspective, because just a year and a half ago, a punter who uses his right leg for everything felt the Achilles in it tear and wondered if he lost it all.

MORE: Before Colts Rigoberto Sanchez could punt again, he and his daughter had to learn to walk

Sanchez and the punting unit got back to their coffin-corner ways in the second half after a rough start to the season. Add Ashton Dulin back to the gunner mix and I think you'll see this remain a weapon this season.

13. The least surprising re-signing was Ronnie Harrison Jr. The safety-linebacker hybrid made that clear when I caught up with him the day after the season ended.

"I've just been blessed this whole year, getting picked up by the Colts in the offseason, being at home all year, getting a shot to come in on the practice squad to prove myself. I feel like I did that," Harrison said then. "... If they wanted to bring me back, I would have no problem."

As the Colts toil in uncertainty at safety, he's an important depth piece, especially considering he can also start in base at linebacker. That versatility can save them a roster spot when they get to roster cuts in the preseason, which can mean carrying an extra wide receiver or pass rusher.

14. Genard Avery didn't make it out of the preseason due to a season-ending knee injury, but the Colts were intrigued enough to keep him on the radar. In an edge room of larger bodies built to be versatile and solid against the run, he was the bendy type at just 250 pounds.

That last showed up in actual football games in his rookie year in 2018, when he had 4.5 sacks with the Browns. He's had four sacks total in the five years since. He will be new defensive line coach Charlie Partridge's project, with the hope of making him the backup LEO behind Samson Ebukam.

15. Speaking of the edge group, I never got the sense that the Colts would be in the mix on a Brian Burns trade. Even after 51 sacks last season, they are looking for more out of their current edge players, a source with knowledge of their personnel said.

The right kind of obvious upgrade at the right cost could still work, like maybe if Alabama's Dallas Turner falls in the draft. But I think the shift in position coach is the swing they hope can elevate them from very good to great.

16. Trey Sermon is back on a one-year deal, and there's a chance he's the No. 2 runner behind Jonathan Taylor next year. He excelled to end last season, averaging 5.0 yards per carry on his final 27 runs.

Sermon said around then that it's the first time in years he's felt like the Ohio State version of himself, the one that got drafted in the third round by the 49ers. It's a tiny sample, of course. It also came without the boost of Anthony Richardson in the backfield to manipulate the defense.

How does Trey Sermon fit at running back?

17. This year's running back draft class is not popular, as showcased by the number of free agent signings at a position the league tried to freeze out just last summer. The Colts can still draft one later on, but they have Evan Hull coming back from a meniscus tear with skills to be a possible pass-game option. Taylor is obviously a bell-cow. So if Sermon's specialty is as a runner, it might fit the puzzle reasonably well.

It just depends on how much the Colts want to insulate what's now a premium investment in Taylor at $14 million a season. He has missed 13 games the past two seasons, though only some were for health reasons.

18. One of the Colts' two outside signings so far has come at nose tackle, where Raekwon Davis became a real investment at two years and $14 million. The people I know in Miami were shocked to see that kind of deal for him, as he hasn't really flashed since his rookie year, back when he was a second-round pick out of Alabama and had a career-high 40 tackles.

But the system keeps changing on Davis, and last year, he dropped a tremendous amount of weight to transition to Vic Fangio's hybrid system with a penetrating nose tackle. In the Colts' system, he estimates he'll be 315 pounds, which means he'll have the playing weight of Stewart and the 6-foot-7 height of DeForest Buckner, making him an interesting player to take snaps off of both as they age toward and into their 30s.

19. Although Joe Flacco is the furthest thing from a runner, he is the inverse of the risk-averse player they had in that spot a year ago. The former Super Bowl MVP stepped in for the Browns off the couch last season and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt and 323.2 yards per game to lead them to the playoffs. And when you watch him, he evades pressure better than you'd guess for a 39-year-old.

He is the inverse of Richardson in ways, too, from mobility to the 18-year age gap to experience, where he has 185 starts to Richardson's 4. But they are similar in the live arm, and after Steichen worked with Flacco in Philadelphia, he'll feel confident in maintaining those downfield and aggressive shots with whichever quarterback is on the field. That is, so long as the magic doesn't run dry in this 39-year-old, as it eventually does for them all.

Who could the Colts still sign in free agency?

20. So, where do the Colts go next with roughly $18 million in cap space? Here are some free agents I have an eye on:

• FS Quandre Diggs: He's expressed his interest in the Colts, and the fit is strong after he made three Pro Bowls in a Seattle defense modeled after the one Bradley built there during the Legion of Boom days. I covered Diggs in Detroit. I think his ball production, experience and communication skills could be a perfect fit here so long as his physical abilities are in-tact enough at age 31 for a multi-year deal, which is what I think this will take.

• SS Julian Blackmon: The 25-year-old is the one starter the Colts let get to free agency and haven't re-signed. The market is bloated, and he might come back to familiarity after enough time. Moore certainly is pushing for it. I think a one-year deal makes sense so he can distance himself from the injury concerns and further cement his status as a strong safety.

• CB Xavien Howard: The former first-team All-Pro isn't what he was, but he isn't washed up either. He's 31, just a year removed from a Pro Bowl berth and has played at least 13 games in four straight seasons. He feels quite a bit like Xavier Rhodes did when the Colts signed him, and that worked wonders for a season.

• WR/PR Jamal Agnew: The Colts haven't had a real punt returner in some time, but this could be one. Agnew has four career punt return touchdowns as well as two on kick returns. The 28-year-old also played a gadget receiver role for Colts offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter in Jacksonville. With 8.0 career yards per rush and 10.7 yards per target last season, he could be what the Colts hoped Isaiah McKenzie would be.

• CB Steven Nelson: Steven Nelson is your definition of a solid but unspectacular veteran. Turning 32, he has started 115 games as well as eight playoff games. He's spent the past two seasons in the AFC South with the Texans, and last year, he came away with four interceptions. General manager Chris Ballard also knows him from their shared time with the Chiefs in 2015-2017.

Contact Nate Atkins at natkins@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter @NateAtkins_.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: 20 thoughts on Colts free agency, L'Jarius Sneed and more