10 keys to winning your Week 6 fantasy football matchup
Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri will use this space to deliver his keys to victory every week of the 2023 NFL season.
Finding 1: Zay Flowers is a sneaky stud WR in Week 6
He’s earned 10+ targets in three of his first five career games. Flowers is the clear WR1 for Lamar Jackson. His 29% target share ranks 12th among all WRs.
Flowers' role has improved in the offense in the past few weeks. Early on he was mostly targeted in the short areas of the field. This leads to easier catches but less upside. But in the past two weeks, he’s accounted for 40% of Baltimore’s air yards and his average target distance has been 15.8 yards downfield.
This will lead to big plays in this offense. The good news is Flowers hasn’t scored a touchdown this season and he’s yet to top 78 yards. This opens up the opportunity for you to buy low on him.
Finding 2: The best RB spot of the week belongs to Kyren Williams
Last week Kyren was in the sketchy spot of the week against the Eagles and posted just 6.7 points on 15 touches. But one week later he finds himself in the best spot of the week.
The Rams are seven-point home favorites against the Cardinals. Arizona ranks 25th against the run this season and they’ve allowed the fourth-most receptions to running backs. This plays right into Williams' game — he ranks third in RB targets and first in RB routes run this season.
When the starting running back for a team that's been a touchdown favorite this season, they've averaged 15.2 fantasy points.
Finding 3: Breece Hall is in the sketchy spot of the week
Hall is coming off a massive 194-yard game where he saw 25 touches. He commanded a season-high 76% of the rush attempts and was back to vintage Breece Hall form. He ranks second in the NFL averaging 7.2 yards per touch this season.
But in Week 6, he’s in a sketchy spot. He’ll face the Eagles No. 1 ranked defensive line (that will admittedly be missing rookie Jalen Carter). This unit held Kyren Williams to just 57 scoreless yards on 15 touches last week. Despite losing key pieces this offseason, the Eagles defense still ranks second at stopping the run.
The Jets are seven-point underdogs in this game. This will lead to less rush attempts for Hall. It should also lead to more Michael Carter usage. Carter ran 22% more routes than Hall last week and commanded 100% of the two-minute offense snaps. Temper expectations for Hall in Week 6.
Finding 4: Isiah Pacheco is trending up
We now have two weeks of data that suggest Pacheco is the main RB in Kansas City. He’s played 60% of the snaps and handled 70% of the rush attempts the past two games. Pacheco has averaged 20 opportunities during this time compared to just three for Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
The one downside is Pacheco is still not seeing passing game usage. He’s running his usual 35-40% of the routes while Jerick McKinnon is handling the two-minute offense work.
We are basically getting the Brian Robinson or Dameon Pierce role out of Pacheco, but in a far better offense that will reach the red zone more often. Over the next two weeks he’ll face the Broncos defense again and the Chargers bottom-five run defense.
Finding 5: James Cook is trending down
His usage has been concerning the past two games. In Week 4, Latavius Murray ran more routes and earned more targets than Cook. Then in Week 5, Cook saw a season-low nine opportunities. Despite Buffalo trailing most of the game, Cook saw just 38% of the third-down snaps.
Latavius Murray and Damien Harris have been more involved in the past two games. They’ve combined for 47% of the snaps during this time.
Look to trade Cook after his Week 6 matchup against the Giants. Target Kyren Williams or Aaron Jones in trades.
Finding 6: The Pick Up and Play of the week is Gerald Everett
He’s coming off his bye week and is entering a favorable situation. Two things are working in Everett’s favor: Mike Williams is out for the season and Donald Parham Jr. is hurt and trending to miss Week 6.
Everett has played just 46% of the snaps in three games where Parham was healthy. But when Parham left early in Week 4, Everett ran a season-high 59% of the routes and he was more involved in the red zone.
Everett is 12th in TE efficiency this season, despite running just 71 routes. If he maintains this efficiency on more routes, he’ll become a top-12 TE in this offense. Reminder, Everett was a top-10 TE in this offense last season and now Mike Williams is out for the season.
Finding 7: Jameson Williams' usage is something to watch
It was a rough start to the season for Jameson Williams in Week 5. He dropped his first target and then caught a screen pass for -3 yards on his second target. This is bad production for Jameson, but his underlying usage was actually encouraging. Jameson ran 50% of the Lions routes in his season debut; this was third-best among Lions receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown missed Week 5 and Kalif Raymond was his direct replacement. This means Williams is battling Marvin Jones for a starting role. Jameson ran just two fewer routes than Jones in Week 5.
Through five games, the Lions have the No. 1 graded passing offense and they could use Williams' downfield speed. Goff ranks second in deep-ball accuracy and this should lead to some big plays for Jameson. Add him before his Week 6 matchup against a bottom-10 Bucs secondary.
Finding 8: The Colts secondary is the matchup to take advantage of
The Colts' secondary ranks 25th in coverage this season. They play a heavy zone defense, which allows for easy receptions and yards after the catch to opposing wide receivers.
We’ve seen their secondary struggle every week. Opposing WR1s have averaged 23.6 points per game against the Colts. This includes a 140-yard performance from DeAndre Hopkins last week.
But it hasn’t just been WR1s who have benefitted. We’ve seen strong passing offenses have multiple WRs produce in the same game against Indy. In Week 1, Zay Jones posted 14 points and in Week 2 Tank Dell earned 16.7 points.
This week, the Jaguars take on the Colts for the second time this year. It’s unclear if Zay Jones will play. In four games with Jones being out or limited, Christian Kirk has earned 10 targets per game. Start your Jaguars this week and continue to target this secondary all season.
Finding 9: Marquise Brown, league winner
He’s scored 14 or more points in four straight games. Brown ranks 14th in the league with 42 targets and is earning a target on a strong 25% of his routes. Through the first three games of the season, Arizona wasn’t trailing much and thus was able to run more in the second half. This led to Marquise earning 7.3 targets per game.
But over the past two games, Arizona has trailed often and Marquise has earned 10 targets in each game. With James Conner hurt, the run game should become less efficient, putting even more emphasis on the passing attack.
This eighth-round fantasy pick is currently producing as a top-15 WR and the volume won’t be slowing down any time soon. Expect more production this week against the Rams 31st ranked defense.
Finding 10: Quentin Johnston is the post-bye-week rookie to add
Many teams use their bye week to adjust their game plans and personnel usage. This often leads to expanded roles for key rookies. We’ve seen this in past seasons with players like Miles Sanders and Isiah Pacheco.
A player to watch in relation to this trend for Week 6 is Quentin Johnston. Johnston is the Chargers first-round receiver out of TCU. His best season was last year, producing 1,069 yards and ranking top-10 in broken tackle rate.
Johnston saw his role dramatically increase in Week 4 without Mike Williams. He played on a season-high 69% of the routes and earned three targets. Expect the Chargers to increase the role of their first-round rookie heading into Week 6. Johnston has favorable matchups against the Bears and Chiefs in the next few weeks. If he’s available in your league, add him.
