10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread: Week 11. Going West
What college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 11? This week we go West for some of the more interesting predictions of the week.
Week 11 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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– Week 11 Schedule, Game Times, Game Previews
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Results So Far ATS: 62-48-1
After a rocky run it’s time for a road trip to shake things up a bit.
This week we go west for most of the 10 best predictions against the spread. There’s a reason for this – there are a TON of good-looking matchups – Nevada shouldn’t be an underdog against San Diego State and Utah State will probably beat San Jose State outright.
But first come the tried and true foundation selections.
While the picks have been up-and-down over the last few weeks – fewer games to choose from and less big spreads to exploit like there are in September – the overall record is still solid because of four core beliefs.
If you’ve been with the program, you know by now that …
1. Always go over on a point total in the mid-30s. Too many things can go right, unless it’s Army-Air Force, which once again proved to defy all laws of logic and reason.
2. Always go under on a point total in the mid-70s. Too many things can go wrong, like a torrential downpour late in the Pitt-North Carolina game.
3. Always take the underdog if it’s getting 45 points or more. Games can be blowouts without being brutal.
Over the long haul, if you stick with those three principles you should be okay – as long as you’re using good judgment, like going over on the Wednesday night Central Michigan-Kent State insanity.
Two of the three are foundations are represented this week, and there’s a fourth tried and true belief that – if you’ve been with this all year – has done you a big-time solid.
We kickoff our trip out west by making a stop at the fourth core belief for 2021. You ALWAYS go against …
Click on each game for the preview
10. Kansas at Texas
LINE Texas -31
ATS PICK Texas
Full disclosure – I wouldn’t come near this if it didn’t involve Kansas, but as the man said, you dance with the one that brung ya.
Oklahoma couldn’t get the job done against Kansas against the spread a few weeks ago, but that’s been it. 1-8 ATS – including not covering the +24 in a 35-10 loss to Kansas State last week – to continue an epic heater of a run going back to the beginning of last year.
Texas is a mess.
It completely lost its stuff ever since that fourth down run by Caleb Williams halfway through the loss to Oklahoma. However, as bad as things look, the five teams Texas has lost to – at Arkansas, Oklahoma (in Dallas), Oklahoma State, at Baylor, at Iowa State) are all terrific.
How many times as Kansas lost by more than 31? Three in the last seven games.
Whatever. It’s Kansas, there’s a spread, and we stay on the ride until it stops for good.
So that’s one of the staples. Another foundation pick …
– CFN Week 11 Experts Picks: College
9. New Mexico State at Alabama
LINE Alabama -51.5
ATS PICK New Mexico State
Besides the gimmicky aspect of always taking the underdogs with a point spread this high, this actually isn’t a bad call.
Of course New Mexico State will get annihilated – it lost 62-10 to Bama back in early 2019, hence the number – but this version can actually score a little bit.
No, it’s not going to keep up, but all you’re looking for are 10-to-14 points, and the Aggies can do that.
Mercer got 14 on this Tide team back in September. Southern Miss got rolled 63-14. Neither one of those games pushed past the 51.5, and New Mexico State is better.
As always with these picks, think of it this way – you’re walking into the stadium up 51-0. It can be a total wipeout – like 63-14 – and you’re fine.
Keeping with the weekly foundations, the over.
– CFN Week 10 Experts Picks: NFL
8. Minnesota at Iowa
LINE 37 Point Total
ATS PICK Over
Last week in the exact same spot I said the exact same thing.
Too many things can go right with a low 37 point total, like one team can get the job done all by itself.
Last week here at the 8: Wisconsin 52, Rutgers 3.
Minnesota scored 41 against Northwestern. Before that it scored 34 against Maryland and put up 31 on Nebraska on the way to hitting the 30-point mark six times so far.
The problem is Iowa.
This team just doesn’t score. Something is wrong if you’re beating Northwestern 17-12, and yes, I demanded you go over on the low point total against Wisconsin. Both teams sort of decided they were done early in the fourth of a 27-7 Badger win.
It’s a point total of 37, and it’ll probably drop.
Before going west, two ACC games.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 7: Notre Dame at Virginia
7. Notre Dame at Virginia
LINE 64.5 point total
ATS PICK Over
You’ve got some pregame work to do on this one – it starts at 7:30 ET.
There’s a reason this is at 64.5 instead of about 75 – Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong is iffy with injured ribs.
He hurt them in the 66-49 loss at BYU, but he’s had two weeks off to rest up. While he’s a tough guy’s tough guy, he’s 50/50.
That’s the reason the line went from around Notre Dame -5 to -6. Like that either way – the Irish are better – and the 64.5 will rocket up fast if Armstrong is a full go.
Like the over no matter what thanks to a Virginia defense that should give up 40 points before it hits the field.
Here’s the other key part – Notre Dame isn’t dumb. It’s still pushing for the College Football Playoff, and after scoring 31 or more in each of the last four games, it’s going to crank up whatever style points it can get on a bad Cavalier D.
– Week 11 Schedule, Game Times, Game Previews
6. Miami at Florida State
LINE Miami -2.5
ATS PICK Miami
Yeah, Florida State has been flaky enough to be great at home in a 33-30 win over Syracuse and on the road in a ten-point shocker against North Carolina. One collapse against Jacksonville State aside, the team is a bit better than the 3-6 record.
And yeah, it’s okay to be scared of a Miami team that plays so many close games.
And yeah, you should probably stay away if you’re counting on a team to win in a possible walk-off field goal.
However, Miami is playing too well offensively, the run defense has bee great over the last three weeks, and it should be able to roll through an FSU defense that gave up over 300 yards to NC State’s Devin Leary last week.
It’s Miami, and it’s Florida State. If field goals mean nothing to you in this matchup, I can’t help you.
Miami will win by a field goal.
And now the road trip is on …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 5: Air Force at Colorado State
5. Air Force at Colorado State
LINE Air Force -2.5
ATS PICK Air Force
Do you believe that games between the military academies are always their own separate things apart from the normal ebb and flow of college football?
Air Force and Army both run the same styles – at least somewhat – and they’re both able to handle the option as well as anyone. That doesn’t translate to other games.
Colorado State is great at getting into the backfield and generating pressure. A fat lot of good that did the Ram D last week after getting hammered by an offensively-challenged Wyoming for 385 rushing yards.
In general the Rams have been good against the run, but they’re never going to seem like they have the ball. In a weird way, their style of defense doesn’t quite fly considering Air Force doesn’t allow a ton of big things behind the line.
Colorado State beat New Mexico, San Jose State, and Toledo. That’s it. Air Force should be able to do what it does as it dictates the tempo throughout.
You’re only giving away 2.5.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 4: Colorado at UCLA
4. Colorado at UCLA
LINE UCLA -16.5
ATS PICK UCLA
The line moved on this with UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson expected to go, but even a little shift should be okay.
I’m buying into the idea that the team just needed a break after tough days at the office against Oregon and Utah.
Throw in that UCLA can get bowl eligible for the first time since 2017, and that Chip Kelly is on a flaming hot seat if he doesn’t get the win, and it’s Colorado head coach Karl Dorrell coming back to play the program where he coached at from 2003 to 2007.
And there’s the most important part – the Bruins had two weeks off to rest up in mid-November.
But it’s more than that. Colorado might be playing a bit better than it was earlier in the season, but the defense is still having problems against the run allowing well over 200 yards in four of the last five games.
Give this to the fresher Bruin lines.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 3: Utah at Arizona
3. Utah at Arizona
LINE Utah -24
ATS PICK Utah
Arizona was the call last week in this No. 3 spot – it was written up before Cal’s COVID outbreak.
Cal was missing 24 players and it was still 3-3 late in the game before the Wildcats pulled out a 10-3 victory – the first in the Jedd Fisch era.
There’s a reason that was such a fight – Arizona is extremely banged up.
Everyone is hurting this time of year, but the Wildcats didn’t have a whole lot of quality depth to begin with and now they’re battling hard to get by. Now they’re playing the – yeah, I’m going there – best team in the Pac-12, at least at the moment.
Overall, the Arizona run defense hasn’t been all that bad and held up well against everyone except UCLA and USC. That’s about to change in a big, big way against 221-pound Tavion Thomas and a Utah ground attack that ran over UCLA for close to 300 yards and just blasted Stanford for 441.
The offensive line has found its groove at the right time.
Throw in Arizona currently running dead last in the nation in turnover margin, and this isn’t going to be pretty.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 2: New Mexico at Fresno State
2. New Mexico at Fresno State
LINE Fresno State -24.5
ATS PICK Fresno State
This is a focus game.
Fresno State was all jacked up last week with Boise State coming to town, the place was a sellout, it was going to be the moment when the program took over the Mountain West after key wins over Nevada and San Diego State, and then …
(womp womp) Cue the sad trombone.
Fresno State couldn’t run, couldn’t throw, and had one of its worst offensive performances of the year in a shocking 40-14 loss. But there’s still time.
San Diego State and Nevada play each other this week. If the winner of that loses once more and Fresno State wins out, it’ll be Fresno State going to the Mountain West Championship.
Oh, by the way, New Mexico is awful.
You don’t lose to UNLV – a program that hadn’t won a game since 2019 – if things are going well.
The Lobos scored 17 points in the loss. That was like Christmas for the offense after failing to score more than 14 in the previous six games.
Fresno State is still at home, it still has the offense, and it should still be able to hang up at least 38 points on the board against the mediocre Lobos.
It might take a little late push to get there, but the Fresno State offense will open it up.
And finally, we head back from the tour out west by coming back through …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 1: Michigan at Penn State
1. Michigan at Penn State
LINE Michigan -1.5
ATS PICK Michigan
Okay, listen to me very, very carefully.
For a whole variety of reasons – crazy unders, Kansas covering the spread for the first time in two years, Army throwing the ball effectively in the final meaningless moments in a loss, a few late line shifts, famine, plagues, pestilence – this pick in the No. 1 spot has been a bomb over the last several weeks.
Now, if you believe that you never, ever, ever mess with a streak – including a losing one like this No. 1 pick is on – you ride that thing out until it stops. You have my permission since all that really matters is your happiness.
As an investor, finding something consistent is everything, and this pick has certainly been that.
However, part of the streak being the streak is that the pick has to be sincere. I can’t just do the George Costanza opposite thing and try to make a prediction that will somehow go horribly wrong in new and creative ways.
You do you – I’m still going full steam ahead with my No. 1 pick, so …
I don’t believe in Penn State.
I think it deserves to be in the College Football Playoff top 25, WR Jahan Dotson is amazing, and there are a whole lot of excellent parts, but you don’t lose to Illinois if everything is going well.
You don’t lose to Iowa, even if your starting quarterback gets knocked out of the game.
The Ohio State performance was fine, but Ohio State is probably a whole lot more overrated than the puffed up blowouts over bad teams might indicate.
Maybe I’m missing something massive – the wins over Wisconsin and Auburn early on were strong – but beating Maryland last week just doesn’t do it.
The Nittany Lions can’t run the ball – under 100 yards in six of the nine games – and Michigan’s run defense hasn’t had much of a problem against anyone but Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker.
How good is the Wolverine offense? Wisconsin’s defense is coming up with a historically great run, and Michigan is the only team to amass more than 300 yards against it.
1.5 is basically a pick ’em game. Michigan is the better team, it’s playing angry, it has the lines to hold up and …
I just picked Michigan to win in the No. 1 slot in this piece.
Do with that what you must.
Week 11 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Week 11 Experts Picks: College
– CFN Week 10 Experts Picks: NFL
– Week 11 Schedule, Game Times, Game Previews
– ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
– College Football Playoff: 25 Instant Reactions
