10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread Week 8
10 best predictions for another huge Saturday of college football. What games appear to be the best bets and best picks for the Week 8 games?
10 Best College Football Predictions: Week 8
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Results So Far: 43-37-1
I am freaking off.
Usually the mid-October lack of REM sleep makes everything more focused, but that sure as shoot wasn’t happening last weekend.
Colorado beat Cal outright? Eastern Michigan didn’t show up at home against Northern Illinois? Ole Miss and Miami can’t hang on to cover late?! TIME OUT …
The recent picks on the site haven’t been that bad %-wise – ATS I’ve got a decent handle on the big ones – but something is weird.
The Mountain West has gone haywire and I’ve been on the wrong end on all of it lately, but somehow I’m nailing the SEC ATS, which in most years I’m fighting at this point to stay above water.
I’ve been mashing the Big 12 point totals – which you’ll see more of in a moment – but completely whiffed the Big Ten last week.
Just when I thought I had the Sun Belt locked down, Georgia State couldn’t stop turning the ball over against Appalachian State on Wednesday, and Troy’s defense rose up and proved it really might be the 2000 Baltimore Ravens with a stuffing win at South Alabama on Thursday. But those are weeknight games. Those are weird, too.
It’s all about steadiness, reason, rationale, and consistency, and there’s been next to none of that over the last month.
So now what?
1. Just take the info I’ll spew and use it to confirm or deny your previously held beliefs – which you should always do anyway.
2. FADE AWAY knowing that something needs to be recalibrated, or …
3. Forget all of that, because after the last two weeks I’m WAY overdue to mash a hanging curve.
Forgive all the point total predictions this week, but whatever. Let’s go.
Click on each game for the preview
10. San Diego State at Nevada
POINT TOTAL 36
PICK Over
As a rule, always go under on 70ish or over – over the long haul that works – and even it if doesn’t make any sense, go over on the mid-to-low 30s.
The hope will be that this drops a wee bit by the time this kicks off for your 10:30 pm ET late night fun, but it’s 36. That’s a tad obscene for any college game.
Fair warning on a two fronts. 1. Nevada has totally hosed me over the last two weeks. This is a spite pick. 2. If you’re having a bad day, stay away, because nothing will frustrate you more than watching San Diego State’s offense – and when it’s playing well the defense – when you need an over.
With that said, the Aztecs desperately looked and played against Hawaii like a team that needed a week off. It got it, and now the running game that got stuffed by Boise State and struggled against the Rainbow Warriors should be rejuvenated against the miserable Nevada run D.
It’s going to be like crawling across the finish line tied to an anchor, but you should get there.
POINT TOTAL 47.5
PICK UNDER
No one likes unders, and no one likes people who go with unders. Even unders’ moms don’t like unders.
This is an early game, go low, go quietly, and ease into the rest of your college football Saturday.
It’s not like the Indiana defense can do much of anything, but it also went against a slew of great offenses over the last month. Out of the last six, every game but the 31-10 loss to Michigan went past 48. But again, that was because of the other side.
And then there’s Rutgers.
Only one of the five FBS games it played so far went over 48, and that was the 49-10 loss to Ohio State. Rutgers doesn’t score.
It didn’t score against Nebraska, and everyone scores against Nebraska.
That was 14-13, and it wasn’t any more fun than the 16-14 win over Temple. Bad offense, good defense, and two teams that play at about the same level.
Think about Indiana getting 3.5, and assume both teams hang around in the mid-to-low 20s. You’ll sweat, but if Rutgers goes off, it’ll be an anomaly.
8. FIU at Charlotte
POINT TOTAL 63.5
PICK UNDER
FIU has only scored more than 12 points once against an FBS team, and that was in a 21-7 win over New Mexico State.
In every conceivable way it’s one of the worst offenses in college football, but in every conceivable way Charlotte has one of the worst defenses in college football.
I know how the 49ers do business, but I’ve seen too much FIU football. I can’t shake that team’s inability to score.
Granted, Charlotte couldn’t hold up at home against UTEP in a 41-35 loss. William & Mary is actually pretty good, but it’s an FCSer and it cranked up almost 560 yards and 41 points. The 34 put up by UAB last week were the fewest points allowed all year by the 49ers.
You could be on crutches and averaged 5.5 yards per carry on this D.
I still can’t buy that the FIU offense can do enough to help the total get to 64.
(With that said, this REALLY falls into the fade category if you came into this thinking the other way … Charlotte’s defense is just that bad.)
7. Duke at Miami
LINE Duke +9
ATS PICK Duke
You owe me, Miami.
The Hurricanes were a lock. They had everything well in hand against Virginia Tech last week with a nice and comfy 20-0 lead until the Hokies threw up 14 points in the fourth quarter to screw it all up.
It’s irresponsible to suggest a money line pick – which is why I’m going ATS here – but the Canes struggled against the mediocre Hokies, lost to Middle Tennessee, and only rocked Bethune-Cookman and a Southern Miss team without an offense.
Duke might be fighting a bit, but the losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina were by three each, and it gave a fully functional Kansas a fight in Lawrence in a 35-27 loss.
Until Miami beats a Power Five team by double-digits …
6. Mississippi State at Alabama
LINE Alabama -21.5
ATS PICK Mississippi State
I never, ever feel right picking against Alabama.
I didn’t feel right picking Tennessee ATS last week, but I actually liked Texas A&M getting more than three touchdowns.
Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Arkansas for three quarters – what has Alabama shown you to suggest it can roll a solid team with ease?
The problem – besides being Alabama at home in a bad mood – is that Mississippi State has been road kill for the Tide for most of the Nick Saban era from Year Two on.
However, Bama has a struggling secondary – to be nice about it. Now it has to go against one of the best precision passing games in the country that’s going to spread out these defensive backs and attack, attack, attack.
There’s a chance the O doesn’t click. It had a hard time last week in the 27-17 loss at Kentucky, and it stalled in the 31-16 loss at LSU. It beat Arizona in Tucson, but going on the road is an issue.
Again, though, you can throw on the Tide, and Mississippi State will.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 5: Pitt at Louisville
5. Pitt at Louisville
POINT TOTAL 55
PICK OVER
Start with this. One of these teams is going to score in the 30s.
Pitt’s 26-21 loss to Georgia Tech and Louisville’s 20-14 win over UCF were the only two times in the combined 12 games that one of the teams involved didn’t get to 31.
Sometimes the Cardinal D got rocked – like it did in the 31-7 loss to Syracuse, and sometimes Pitt struggled like in the 34-27 loss to Tennessee.
This isn’t going to be some crazy firefight played in the 40s, so don’t expect this to be easy. However, but teams are coming off solid offensive performances before getting a week to rest up. Both defenses are fine, and they can both get to the quarterback, but they’re nothing special.
Again, this won’t be obvious in the first quarter – it’ll take a while to warm up. But it’s a night game, it’ll be a good atmosphere, and don’t be stunned if both sides end up hitting at least 30.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 4: Northwestern at Maryland
4. Northwestern at Maryland
LINE Maryland -13.5
ATS PICK Maryland
I know Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa is a game time decision. I don’t care.
If anything, that gives this game a little more value before the line moves if he does play.
I know backup Billy Edwards is a freshman who didn’t hit a pass when coming in for Tagovailoa. I don’t care.
Edwards is a decent passer and can run.
I know Northwestern is coming off a two week break, and I know I missed big last week picking Cal over Colorado after not caring about anything other than how miserable the Buffaloes have been with nothing going right.
Northwestern lost at home to Southern Illinois. It lost to Miami University. It lost to Wisconsin 42-7, and that’s sort of hard to do.
Maryland hasn’t opened up the the ground game like it can, but it will this week as it takes over in the second half. The passing game will be creative, the defense will get into the backfield, and …
Two touchdowns. As long as the Terps can survive a few good early Wildcat drives, there shouldn’t be an issue.
And now we dive into the Big 12 offenses the rest of the way.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 3 West Virginia at Texas Tech
3. West Virginia at Texas Tech
POINT TOTAL 64.5
PICK OVER
If it seems like the final score of every Big 12 game is 38ish-34ish, it’s because it’s true. Six of the top 26 scoring offenses in the country are in the Big 12.
Well, it’s true except for Iowa State games and Red River Showdowns. but even the Cyclones are averaging 23 points per game and Oklahoma’s 34 points per game factors in the bagel put up against Texas.
TCU and Oklahoma State both average over 45 a game – BTW, over on the 60.5 on Texas-OSU isn’t bad, but I didn’t go with it because Cowboy QB Spencer Sanders is iffy with a shoulder injury – Kansas averages 40 a pop, and everyone else is in the mid-to-high 30s.
The Big 12 is cranking up back-and-forth firefights all across the board, so in these desperate times I’m reach back for three overs on totals that really do seem a tad low.
I usually like to stay away from overs on a game that’s in the mid-60s, but West Virginia gets into wild fights with the dates against Pitt, Kansas, and Baylor all going over 65.
Every Texas Tech game but the 27-14 loss to NC State blew past 65.
Sort of like the Rutgers-Indiana game where it’s going to take something out of the norm for Rutgers to score well, something will have to go wrong for these two not to hang around in the 30s.
The same goes for …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 2 Kansas at Baylor
2. Kansas at Baylor
POINT TOTAL 58.5 (this closed at 56.5)
PICK OVER
Now we have something to work with – 58.5 is a more reasonable, manageable point total.
Even the Baylor-Iowa State game got to 55, and those two have decent defenses.
The key to this in all ways is Kansas. The defense might have been able to pull out the 14-11 win over Iowa State, but it’s going to give up at least 30 points, because that’s what it does. The offense is going to score at least 30 points, because that’s what it does.
Iowa State is the only time the Jayhawks haven’t hit 31. That game and the 35-27 win over Houston were the only FBS games when the other side didn’t get to 30, and even that pushed past 59.
And don’t dismiss the idea that Baylor could all but take care of the 59 itself. Oklahoma was able to put up 52 on the Jayhawks last week.
It’s an early game, you’re hoping these two come out firing, and hopefully it starts things out right. And then in the Big 12’s signature night game …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 1 Kansas at TCU
1. Kansas State at TCU
POINT TOTAL 54.5
PICK OVER
Again, same thing here as the Kansas-Baylor total that appears to be way low.
TCU will score in the 30s, because that’s what it does. It has yet to score fewer than 38 points, and that includes the 43 last week against a good Oklahoma State D and 55 against Oklahoma.
The defense isn’t as rocky as KU’s but it’ll give up at least 24 – again, because over the last month, that’s what it does.
Kansas State had a week off to rest up.
The 17-10 loss to Tulane a few weeks ago is a wee bit concerning for this, but the 10-9 win over Iowa State is fine. It’s Iowa State. Those games are low scoring.
The defense was able to hold Texas Tech to 28, but the total in that hit 65. It kept Missouri to 12, but the total came in at 52 – TCU won’t be held to 12.
Again, it’s a primetime game, the energy will be there in Fort Worth, each team can rattle off big plays, and this should be in the 60s.
Expert Picks
Week 8: College Week 7: NFL
Week 8 Game Previews
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
