10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread Week 10
10 best predictions for this week’s college football slate. What games appear to be the best bets and best picks for the Week 10 games?
10 Best College Football Predictions: Week 10
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Results So Far: 53-47-1
This is a serious week that calls for serious predictions.
Besides a few massive whiffs here and there – seriously, thanks SO much, TCU, for that unnecessary TD pass in the final 20 seconds against West Virginia – the biggest complaint comes from those of you wanting bigger picks and bigger calls for the bigger games.
Of course money doesn’t care if it’s on Akron or Alabama, it’s all the same, but every once in a while it’s a little easier to dive in head first into the giant battles with more known parts.
Just ask anyone who thinks they have the MAC clocked this year.
I’ve got a crazy gimmick idea I’ll save for next week with the alternative top ten picks – aka FADE FADE FADE. For now, though, with so much on the line with the Week 10 showdowns, we’re not messing around.
This starts with the giant games everyone will be watching, and yes ATS lovers, these are all going to be picks against the spread …
Except for the two at the very end.
Click on each game for the preview
10. Alabama at LSU
LINE Alabama -13.5
PICK LSU
Full disclosure, I’m not the hugest fan of this pick only because it goes against my DNA to ever pick against Alabama.
I got a hive just writing that.
I know Alabama is amazing when Nick Saban and his $25 million coaching staff get two weeks to figure it all out, and I know Tennessee destroyed LSU 40-13 in Death Valley.
That loss to the Vols was a day game, and we all know LSU is a totally different problem to deal with in Baton Rouge at night.
Tennessee, Texas, and Arkansas were probably the three best teams on the Bama slate so far. All were away from Tuscaloosa, and each one was a problem in its own way.
The Tide will win, but in a nasty road environment against a team that had two weeks off after beating Ole Miss by 25, give me the double digit home dog.
LINE Georgia -8.5
PICK Georgia
More full disclosure, I think I’ve picked against Tennessee in every game this year. Yeah, that has served me well, so do with this as you will.
8.5 is a LOT to be giving the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings, but I’m just going come out and say it …
I know this is supposed to be all analytical with logic and rationale, and I hate projecting feelings on an entire team of 18-to-23-year-old kids as if it’s a singular thing. However, I can’t get past the idea that Georgia isn’t going to take being ranked No. 3 all that well.
That might be just that one little bit of extra juice that takes this team to a whole other level of focus.
It’s not like the defending national champ is crawling into this. It won its last three games over Auburn, Vanderbilt, and Florida by a combined score of 141 to 30. As much as everyone wants to hate on the close call to Missouri, that was the only time anyone came closer than 17 points against this bunch.
Again, Tennessee has made me look ridiculous time and again – I’ve gotten used to it – but as much as I love that the world finally figured out how great Hendon Hooker is, I think this will be about ol’ Stetson Bennett and that Dawg D.
And for the third humongous game of the weekend before we get back to business …
8. Clemson at Notre Dame
LINE Clemson -3.5
PICK Clemson
I missed on Notre Dame against Syracuse last week – for some reason I ignored just how banged up the Orange were – and I totally overloved BYU before Marcus Freeman’s running game went off in Vegas. However, for the most part I’ve been pretty good on my Irish picks.
I took them to cover against Ohio State, thought they’d struggle with Stanford, and had them beating North Carolina. I think I’ve got this one, and it comes down to one simple premise.
Clemson’s NFL defensive front got two weeks off to get ready for this.
It’s Clemson, so of course there won’t be anything easy on the way to the win. However, Notre Dame probably can’t win if it doesn’t run for 200 yards, and Clemson isn’t going to allow that to happen.
Oh, and for all the struggles and problems, no one has come closer than six against the Tigers.
7. South Carolina at Vanderbilt
LINE South Carolina -6.5
ATS PICK Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is all rested after two weeks off before a home game. It gave Missouri problems in a 17-14 Commodore loss on the road, and South Carolina is coming off an ugly 23-10 loss to Mizzou just last week.
It’s okay. This is an up-and-down Gamecock team, and I’m believing things are about to swing back up.
South Carolina couldn’t run a lick on the Tigers – it’ll run just fine on Vandy. That, and Commodore passing game won’t be accurate enough. It has hit more than 65% of its passes just once, and it lost to Ole Miss by 24.
South Carolina is 5-0 against teams that didn’t connect on 65% of its passes, and 0-3 against teams that did. That, and along with a good day from the ground game, Spencer Rattler will throw for at least 250 yards.
Speaking of Missouri …
6. Kentucky at Missouri
LINE Kentucky -1.5
ATS PICK Missouri
I’ve been trying so hard to make Kentucky a thing. However, my timing is off.
I thought it would get by Ole Miss – nope. Even with quarterback issues I thought it would get by South Carolina – nope. I got the hint and took Mississippi State – nope, the Cats beat the Bulldogs. And then last week I honestly thought UK had the knuckleball style and passing game to maybe catch Tennessee in an all-time sandwich game. Triple nope.
I’m due.
Will Levis is gutting it out, but he’s really hurt. His toughness is a plus for the pro scouts to see, but it’s going to be a problem against a sneaky-amazing Missouri defense that hasn’t allowed 300 yards of total offense in any of the last three games and in four of the last five.
All three Kentucky losses came when it allowed more than 140 yards. Missouri will run for 140, the D will come up with two takeaways, and the secondary should hold up just enough against a game Levis to get the upset.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 5: Minnesota at Nebraska
5. Minnesota at Nebraska
LINE Minnesota -15.5
PICK Minnesota
Basically, take everything I wrote last week in this same spot about ball control, running game, and defense when picking the under on Illinois-Nebraska – set at 50.5 in the 26-9 Illini win – and apply it to Minnesota.
There are just too many factors going against the Huskers, even at home.
The quarterback situation is iffy with Casey Thompson fighting through an injury, Minnesota is the best team in college football on third downs and the Huskers can’t come up with a third down stop, and then there’s the ground game.
The Gophers had one awful running game when most of the backfield was banged up against Purdue. Other than that, the Gophers can run on anyone, including a dominant Illinois team averaging six yards per pop.
Nebraska is 0-5 when allowing more than 175 rushing yards, and Minnesota might have that in the first half.
Granted, the Gophers have had their dud moments – they couldn’t do anything against Penn State until it was too late and the Purdue game was ugly. This shouldn’t be a problem as long as the lines hold up.
QB Tanner Morgan is fine, the defense shouldn’t get gouged, and there’s a chance this on the cheap – the line could move wildly just before the game depending on Thompson.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 4: Oregon State at Washington
4. Oregon State at Washington
LINE Washington -4.5
ATS PICK Washington
(Washington 24, Oregon State 21 … I can not BELIEVE Washington didn’t get in the end zone on the final drive – and didn’t somehow pull it out on the crazy kickoff. Once again Oregon State burns me …)
I’ve been hurt by Oregon State before.
It was supposed to struggle against a solid Washington State team, and it won 24-10 to cover easily.
It was supposed to get blasted by USC with all of its glitz and fun. 17-14 Trojans.
I had Stanford beating the Beavers outright for all you money line types and lost on a miraculous late play.
However, Oregon State has played three road games. It got steamrolled by Utah 42-16, needed a minor miracle to slip past Fresno State late, and it got that crazy play against Stanford. Obviously everyone is better at home, but traveling up the road matters here.
And hosting the Beavers matters, too.
Washington is a different team in Seattle. It’s unbeaten, the offense is far stronger, and hanging 40 on the board is the norm.
Now, this comes with a little bit of a warning. 1) I’m always scared of games that aren’t on Saturday – the rhythms and vibes are off, and 2) the best team Washington faced at home was Michigan State. I’m not going to lie, I have a deep fear of a late road team score to lose 35-31, but …
Nah. Give me the best passing team in America in the comforts of its own home.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 3 Michigan at Rutgers
3. Michigan at Rutgers
LINE Michigan -25.5
PICK Michigan
Oh yes, I am well aware of the panic during last year’s 20-13 Michigan win over Rutgers. Somewhere I have the flurry of text messages from freaked out Wolverine friends to prove it.
Oh yes, I am well aware of the panic during 2020’s 48-42 Michigan win over Rutgers. Somewhere I have the flurry of text messages from freaked out Wolverine friends to prove it.
Because of those two too-close calls, everyone forgets the pre-Greg Schiano days when Michigan rolled 52-0 in 2019, 42-7 in 2018, and there was that 78-0 nail-biter in 2016.
But this is about this year and these two teams, and it’s this simple. Rutgers can’t stop teams that run the ball well – Minnesota and Ohio State combined for over 500 yards – and Michigan is a machine right now with its style.
Rutgers doesn’t take the ball away like it usually does under Schiano, Michigan doesn’t turn the ball over, and most importantly, Rutgers doesn’t score.
Take out the 66 points hung on Wagner and the Scarlet Knights are averaging 13.5 points per game. Minnesota beat them 31-0, Ohio State beat them 49-10, and getting to 26 shouldn’t be too much of a problem if the Wolverines are focused.
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 2 Big 12 Big Totals
2. Oklahoma at Baylor, Oklahoma State at Kansas, Kansas State at Texas
POINT TOTALS OU-Baylor 61.5, OSU-KU 64.5, Texas-K-State 54.5
PICK Over, Over, Over
As I always tell my cohosts on the show I do on Saturdays – 4-8 ET on the BetQL network – where you can essentially enjoy wisdom like this piece in radio/video form …
DO … NOT … DO … PARLAYS.
“But there was this one time when …”
DO … NOT … DO … PARLAYS.
There’s a city in Nevada whose economy survives on desperation, dreams, and just-missed parlays.
Of course no one listens to me, but just go the single game wager route and you’ll be ahead. I know you won’t, so for this I’m combining all three of these games in this one slot.
In case you haven’t noticed, every Big 12 game that doesn’t involve Iowa State is almost always 38ish-34ish, and when it doesn’t happen, something malfunctioned at a near-historic, blindsiding level.
(Seriously, Oklahoma State? Kansas State hangs up 48 and you can’t do anything?)
I can’t in good conscience include Texas Tech at TCU at 69.5. That’s too high considering the Red Raider QB situation. However, mix and match the six teams above and you’re likely to get a point total of 70 or so no matter what.
TCU averages a Big 12-best 44.3 points per game. Oklahoma State, even after that shutout debacle last week, averages 39.1 per game.
Baylor (38.4), Kansas (38), Texas (36.4), Oklahoma (33) all know how to score.
So if I’m telling you – BEGGING you – not to parlay, I like the games in this order for the over: Baylor at Oklahoma (61.5), Oklahoma State at Kansas (64.5), Texas at Kansas State (54.5).
NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 1 Army vs Air Force
1. Army vs Air Force
POINT TOTAL 40.5
PICK Under
It’s the Wake and Take pick for this Saturday – when the score goes low, you get high – with the early start time of 8:30 am on the West Coast.
Sometimes, you keep riding the wave until it stops. If this goes 45-41, tip your cap and go on about your day. And why?
Games between military academies almost always go low – like the Air Force 13-10 win over Navy this year. You can go here for an actual attempt at analysis. For this, there’s no reason to do anything other than go as simple as possible.
2021 Army 21, Air Force 14 (and that was in overtime)
2020 Army 10, Air Force 7
2019 Air Force 17, Air Force 13
You want more? Okay …
2018 Army 17, Air Force 14
2017 Army 21, Air Force 0
2016 Air Force 31, Army 12 (so there’s your one outlier that went over 41, and it was still relatively close)
2015 Air Force 20, Army 3
2014 Air Force 23, Army 6
You have to go back to 2013 (combined scoring 70 points) and 2012 (combined scoring 62 points) for any offensive fights between these two, because …
2011 Air Force 24, Army 14
Trust me, there are some minor shootouts after that, but over the decades this keeps going.
Go low.
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