Week 4 playoff forecast: 'Boys make strides
SIMULATION BASED FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY: AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match–up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups, AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game, AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
The Jaguars showed nothing in the first two weeks of the season, but they had a strong upset win in Houston in Week 3. By winning a road game over a division rival, the Jaguars significantly improved their chances of turning their season around. Even though they lost, the Texans also slightly improved their playoff chances because Tennessee dropped to 0-3. The Colts picked up another four percentage points thanks to a quality road win in Arizona.
Denver is defying the odds going 3-0, but they are not expected to continue their winning ways. They still only have a 23-percent chance of winning the AFC West despite having a better record than San Diego, which has a 75-percent chance of winning the division. The Raiders need to beat division rivals at home if they want to make any legit run at the playoffs. By losing at home to Denver, they saw their chances drop significantly from 11.5 to below 3 percent.
The Ravens improved 11 percentage points even though their easy win at home vs. Cleveland was expected. The Steelers early offensive struggles, late defensive struggles, and 1-2 record have helped boost the Ravens and Bengals. AccuScore simulations are still not quite convinced that the Bengals will continue to win at their current pace, but they are steadily improving from just a 2.9 percent chance after their Week 1 loss to Denver up to 23.7 percent.
The Jets hold the lead in the AFC East with a 48-percent chance of winning the division and a 70-percent chance of making the playoffs. The Patriots kept pace with a quality win over Atlanta. The Dolphins not only are 0-3, but they lost Chad Pennington for the season and saw their playoff chances plummet nearly 17 percentage points.
AFC | Week 3 review | Playoff | Perc. chance | |
Team | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Perc. diff. | Win div. |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 4.9% | 18.8% | 13.9% | 1.6% |
Denver Broncos | 26.7% | 39.0% | 12.4% | 23.0% |
Baltimore Ravens | 81.8% | 93.1% | 11.3% | 80.4% |
New York Jets | 60.7% | 70.1% | 9.5% | 48.3% |
New England Patriots | 57.2% | 65.1% | 7.9% | 42.1% |
Houston Texans | 14.3% | 20.8% | 6.6% | 3.1% |
Cincinnati Bengals | 17.2% | 23.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% |
Indianapolis Colts | 94.0% | 97.8% | 3.8% | 93.7% |
San Diego Chargers | 83.2% | 83.8% | 0.6% | 75.2% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
Cleveland Browns | 1.0% | 0.3% | -0.7% | 0.0% |
Oakland Raiders | 11.5% | 2.9% | -8.7% | 1.1% |
Buffalo Bills | 22.9% | 13.7% | -9.1% | 5.6% |
Tennessee Titans | 25.2% | 13.4% | -11.9% | 1.6% |
Miami Dolphins | 25.4% | 8.8% | -16.7% | 4.0% |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 73.0% | 47.3% | -25.7% | 13.3% |
NFC
The Cowboys were not particularly impressive in their Week 3 win, but statistically, their defense and running game delivered. If the Cowboys commit to the running game and the defense starts pressuring the QB and forcing turnovers at the rate they did in 2008, they can compete in the NFC East. Even though the Eagles and Giants both won, their playoff chances dropped slightly because the Cowboys beat the Panthers.
The Bears have won two in a row and their playoff chances are up to 45 percent. The Bears' increase did not take away from the Packers or Vikings because those teams also won. The Bears' positive increase negatively impacted other NFC wild-card contenders, Arizona and Atlanta. The Lions finally won but they are still a long way from contending for a playoff spot.
The 49ers did not beat Minnesota, but their quality play combined with Arizona's bad loss (home loss and a bad performance) actually resulted in San Francisco improving their playoff chances. Besides Arizona plummeting 20 percentage points, the Seahawks also are down. As the rest of the NFC West struggles, the 49ers benefit, even after a loss.
The Saints won with defense and the running game on the road. This not only helped them go 3-0, but also sent a message to the league and the AccuScore simulations that the Saints are statistically strong in most areas of the game. The Falcons still have a strong 42-percent chance of making the playoffs, but they did drop nearly 18 percentage points because the Saints won and NFC wild-card contenders (Dallas, Philadelphia, Giants, Bears, Packers) all won this week.
NFC | Week 3 review | Playoff | Perc. chance | |
Team | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Perc. diff. | Win div. |
Dallas Cowboys | 25.8% | 44.2% | 18.4% | 20.4% |
Chicago Bears | 31.7% | 45.2% | 13.5% | 13.2% |
New Orleans Saints | 78.7% | 90.3% | 11.6% | 80.6% |
San Francisco 49ers | 57.3% | 67.7% | 10.3% | 66.0% |
Green Bay Packers | 45.1% | 49.9% | 4.8% | 14.4% |
Detroit Lions | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
St. Louis Rams | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
Minnesota Vikings | 91.6% | 91.2% | -0.4% | 72.4% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5% | 0.0% |
Philadelphia Eagles | 59.6% | 58.5% | -1.1% | 34.4% |
Seattle Seahawks | 12.2% | 8.5% | -3.7% | 8.0% |
Carolina Panthers | 6.4% | 1.9% | -4.5% | 0.8% |
Washington Redskins | 8.5% | 4.0% | -4.6% | 1.2% |
New York Giants | 74.4% | 68.6% | -5.8% | 44.0% |
Atlanta Falcons | 59.6% | 41.9% | -17.7% | 18.6% |
Arizona Cardinals | 48.5% | 28.0% | -20.4% | 25.8% |
