AccuScore: No. 1 seed tough feat for Cards

More: NFC East | NFC North | NFC South

AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division and making the playoffs.

Larry Fitzgerald(notes)

(Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo)

Arizona Cardinals
While the Cardinals drafted Chris Wells to improve their last-place running game, they know that there is no reason for this team to radically change its offense. The key is total offense and points (Arizona ranked fourth in points per game). You do not get rewarded for balance. Even if Arizona had an average running game, the Steelers, Eagles, Panthers and Falcons would have loved to see more rush attempts than more pass attempts to Larry Fitzgerald. Arizona is the only NFC West team finishing with a winning record on average (10,000 season simulations). It also helps that the Cardinals have an easier schedule in terms of opponent winning percentage in 2009 and they have a 49-percent chance of winning 10-plus.

Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks made a smart move acquiring T.J. Houshmandzadeh(notes) and if Matt Hasselbeck(notes) is healthy they should improve significantly (seven wins, up from four in '08). Last season, the injuries on offense took their toll on a tired defense which allowed six points more per game in '09 vs. '08. A healthy passing game should increase time of possession and help the defense improve from being the 25th best to an average defense. Without a quality running game, the Seahawks will not be able to have enough long sustained drives to make the offense or defense great again.

San Francisco 49ers
Shaun Hill(notes), who beat out Alex Smith for the starting QB job, has a career passer rating of 90.5 (just 13 games) and led the team to a 7-5 record over the past two seasons in his starts. AccuScore simulations indicated that San Franciso is clearly better with Hill. San Francisco is projected for another seven-win season because the Seahawks should be better this season, but there is a 40-percent chance the 49ers are at least 8-8.

St. Louis Rams
The Rams are turning to rookie left tackle Jason Smith(notes) to replace Orlando Pace(notes). Even when Pace was healthy, the Rams were a bad team and Marc Bulger(notes) has a passer rating of just 71 in his past two seasons. Even if Smith plays great as a rookie, there is no reason to believe he can do anything more than help the Rams maintain their current level of performance. A healthy Steven Jackson (not necessarily something to rely on) should help the Rams improve on their two-win season, but not by much.

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