Vick grounded for now

MOBILE, Ala. – The media tide might have turned, the fan base might be restless and ownership might even be a tad distressed. However, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick isn't on the trading block.

Anyone who says otherwise either doesn't understand the salary cap, hasn't spoken to well-informed team or league officials, or is simply filling the boredom of Super Bowl dead week with fantasies. Maybe it's a sign that Jeff Garcia's inexplicable "Tonight Show" appearance wasn't enough to placate the masses.

Whatever the case, after two days of taking the temperature of team executives at this week's Senior Bowl – the weigh station for ever every ounce of rumor or innuendo in the NFL – the Vick rumors were nonexistent. If the quarterback was on the block this week, folks in Mobile would be the first to know. Instead, a swath of team executives, scouts and agents say the scuttlebutt simply isn't true. A litmus test which also included personnel from the Falcons, who insisted that despite owner Arthur Blank's recent agitation with the negativity surrounding Vick – stopped in the airport last week for possessing a water bottle with a questionable substance – suggests there hasn't been one iota of talk about purging him from the team.

The feedback from folks in town for the Senior Bowl makes sense given the chaos that would be created if Vick were dealt before the 2007 season. Little things such as, oh, a massive cap hit, an untested quarterback taking over, and the reality that many fans still entertained by Vick could actually stop buying tickets – even if he alienated some when he made an obscene gesture toward fans following a Week 12 home loss to the New Orleans Saints.

As one NFC personnel man reasoned, it wouldn't make any sense for the Falcons to dump Vick now, after hiring coach Bobby Petrino who has shown an ability to tweak a scheme to fit the style of his quarterback. Nor would it make sense for the Falcons to let Vick go after arguably his best passing season, and without seeing how he functioned under Petrino or how backup Matt Schaub fit into the scheme.

But even those reasons seem secondary when you consider the salary cap facts. In reality, it's practically impossible for Atlanta to deal Vick and take a cap hit of over $22.25 million – which would actually adjust down to just over $16.25 million when you subtract Vick's $6 million base salary in 2007. But even the $16 million is a stretch.

Consider: The lone rumor – rubbish, really – that popped up regarding Vick was one in which he would be packaged with Atlanta's first-round pick shipped to the Oakland Raiders for Randy Moss, Joey Porter and Oakland's No. 1 choice. Most executives at the Senior Bowl scoffed at the concept because it makes no sense for the Falcons to add a pair of malcontent wideouts to a roster that includes recent first-round draft picks Roddy White and Michael Jenkins.

Financially, the trade would be ruinous. Atlanta would be forced to take Vick's adjusted cap hit of over $16.25 million, plus an additional pair of players who account for $10.75 million in base salary next season. So in one trade, Atlanta would be tying up $27 million in 2007 cap space – nearly 25-percent of what is expected to be a $109 million cap ceiling. As one prominent agent pointed out, the Falcons would have to cut several players just to make it work. And even if Atlanta dealt Vick after June 1 and split the cap hit over two years, bringing Moss and Porter aboard would still amount to over $18 million in cap space in 2007, and another $14 million-plus in dead money in 2008.

So where does that leave Atlanta? In the best-case scenario, the team would see Vick flourish under Petrino, which would eliminate the idea them shipping their star player. Worst-case scenario – if a breaking point is going to come for Vick and the Falcons – 2008 is the likeliest juncture. Barring some team coughing up the compensation to sign Schaub in restricted free agency this offseason (Atlanta is planning a first- and third-round tender offer), he'll go through 2007 and head toward unrestricted free agency, a scenario which will likely force some kind of choice by the franchise.

By then, Petrino should have a well-defined opinion of how Vick fits in his offense, and whether he feels Schaub would be a better option. And when the season comes to a close, Atlanta could act accordingly – either dealing Vick and signing Schaub to a long-term deal, or keeping Vick and letting Schaub walk for a compensatory draft pick.

Losing Schaub for as little as a middle-round pick isn't the most palatable option, particularly when Atlanta feels like he's worth so much more. But general manager Rich McKay is no dummy, either. He's more than willing to lose out on a first-round pick – which doesn't guarantee a great player anyway – if it means keeping depth at the quarterback spot, and also giving Petrino options going forward.

As one AFC personnel man put it: "The last thing you want to do with two good quarterbacks is make the wrong choice. So why rush it?"

That's reason enough for the Falcons not to send Vick packing.