The 'other' guys

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Rating the QBs

As consistent as the spring flowers on fruit trees, the NFL's annual harvest of quarterback studies begin to bloom right about now. They come in color-coded booklets, rife with pie charts and power-point graphs, and stuffed with enough statistical oddities and decimal points to drive an accountant mad.

"We broke down the success of the first two quarterbacks taken in each draft for I don't know how many years," Cleveland Browns general manager Phil Savage told Yahoo! Sports while attending the pro day workout of LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell in March. "You know what we found? The way it almost always works out is one of them works out, and the other doesn't. For whatever reason, it's almost always that way with the first two quarterbacks taken in the draft."

That's sobering news for all the NFL personnel brokers who have been moving Russell and Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn up and down their draft boards, as if speculating on the future of pork bellies. But it's when you get beyond the marquee names – the typical first round types – that the really frightening conjecture begins. And there will be plenty this year, with a cluster of passers who have received less acclaim than Quinn and Russell … but no less attention.

"It's a diverse quarterback group, from those that [Baltimore Ravens director of scouting] Eric DeCosta has given me to look at," Ravens coach Brian Billick said. "What's intriguing is that there appears to be some options in about every round that may present themselves."

Beyond the top two, there is a tantalizing quartet that will likely be sprinkled between rounds 2-4 – Michigan State's Drew Stanton, Stanford's Trent Edwards, BYU's John Beck and Houston's Kevin Kolb. With as many as 10 teams looking to improve their quarterback depth or groom a future starter, that foursome has drawn plenty of attention as having "star" potential.

"You might see [Ohio State's] Troy Smith in there on a few boards, too, but from a size and physique standpoint, that foursome kind of bubbles to the top," said an NFC North personnel man.

In a way, the second tier of quarterbacks can be divided into two categories: "system" quarterbacks who reaped success in wide-open attacks as seniors (Beck and Kolb), and "gifted" quarterbacks blessed with first-round tools but who suffered through punishing final seasons (Stanton and Edwards).

As the NFC personnel man put it, "I would say you expected more out of [Stanton] and Edwards, and because of some circumstances, they didn't quite satisfy [projections]. … Beck and Kolb, you kind of expected what you got – remarkable yardage and touchdowns, which is usually what you see from senior quarterbacks at those schools."

Judging from behind-the-scene buzz, Beck and Kolb aren't just your typical BYU and Houston quarterbacks, destined to struggle in the league because their systems masked weak arms. In fact, Beck and Kolb both seem to have more than adequate arm strength. While Stanton has gotten more hype for the velocity on his ball, Kolb's zip might be just as impressive.

But it's Kolb's lack of time under center and Houston's reputation for producing quarterbacks who bomb in the NFL that have been the biggest weights on his shoulders. While his size (6-foot3, 218 pounds) and intangibles appear to be in line with NFL cravings, he's rarely stepped under center in his college career, and played in an offense that's similar to a two-minute drill, where he's calling protections and choosing options based off of a set play. The issue with snaps under center came up at the Senior Bowl, where Kolb worked his way into a comfort level. However, the tag as a "system" quarterback has been slow to fade.

"That's all [teams] ask about," Kolb said. "That's one of their biggest concerns – and for good reason. You can't be mad at them for it. I put up a lot of numbers in that system. In the past, they had some bad things turn out that way. … People would try to plug me in with David Klingler and Andre Ware, two great players who didn't have as highly successful NFL careers as they would have liked. But that's not even the same system. It's even different coaches. It's just the same school."

Ware was the 1989 Heisman Trophy winner, but he played in only 14 games in four seasons for the Detroit Lions. Klingler, who set a then single-season record of 54 touchdown passes in 1990, was a first-round choice of the Cincinnati Bengals in 1992. However, he lasted as a starter for just two seasons before losing his job to Jeff Blake.

Beck faces some of the same issues as Kolb, but for different reasons. While Kolb's arm strength helps disarm fears about the system tag, Beck doesn't have that luxury. Instead, Beck has more of a West Coast offense arm – suited for a precise short and intermediate game. Some say shades of Ty Detmer, a player who Beck is naming his soon to be born son after. But Beck doesn't cringe from the comparisons. Instead, he embraces what scouts seem to like most: maturity and readiness.

At 26 (he spent three years on a Mormon mission), it's likely Beck's age will be used against him on draft boards, but he's got a wealth of experience other quarterbacks don't have. While guys like Kolb and Stanton spent college under one offense, Beck saw a flurry of changes after taking over as a freshman starter. Some in the scouting community believe he is the most NFL ready amongst the second wave of quarterbacks, and he's drawn the eye of league quarterback gurus like Lions offensive coordinator Mike Martz.

"There are things that I have experienced that made me who I am," Beck said. "I've been through a lot of coaching changes, a lot of scheme changes, and there's a lot of pressure at BYU at the quarterback spot. So pressure on my shoulders is nothing I'm unaccustomed to."

Stanton and Edwards dealt with unique pressure, too, during their careers though it came slightly earlier. Both were consensus All Americans in high school and among the most avidly recruited quarterbacks in the country. And both went with somewhat unconventional college choices that have haunted them ever since. Despite being recruited by the typical NFL quarterback factories like Miami and USC, Stanton went with Michigan State and Edwards went with Stanford. And by the time their careers ended, both saw their head coaches fired after failing to field competitive programs.

Along the way, their fates ran a parallel line: season-ending injuries, inconsistent performances and offensive lines that often left them pummeled. But what hasn't escaped personnel men are the raw abilities that made them so coveted coming out of high school. Both are big (Stanton at 6-3, 225 and Edwards at 6-4, 230) and feature strong arms. Coming into the 2006 season, some scouts had Stanton and Edwards projected as the two players hot in pursuit of Quinn as college football's best quarterback.

That was before Edwards missed the final five games of the season with a broken foot, and Stanton hobbled through his senior campaign with a pair of concussions and an offensive line that did little to protect him. Suddenly, Stanton looked like a player who made questionable decisions under fire, while Edwards seemed downright fragile. Not that they aren't buoyed by potential.

"Both are very fine quarterback prospects," said an AFC general manager. "It's all part of an equation. You just have to sit down and look at the film and see what the circumstances were that surrounded that talent. Sometimes struggling can be a good thing. You know guys like that won't be surprised when they have to fight through some things, which all quarterbacks do in the NFL when they get thrown into the fire.

"With all quarterbacks, it comes down to your own system, the measurables and the player's leadership ability. But at some point, you have to look at a kid and trust your gut when it tells you he can succeed."