WR/TE Primer '16: On point, Keenan Allen, others, could lead catch pack

WR/TE QUICK TIPS, TRENDS AND TAKES TO KNOW ENTERING THE SEASON

• Over the past six seasons the bust rate of WR1s (Players drafted inside the position’s top-12 who finished outside the top-15) is 38.1 percent. Last year, Mike Evans, Randall Cobb and Alshon Jeffery had various injuries.

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• The biggest positive gainer at the WR position over the past month is San Fran’s Bruce Ellington. Thanks to enormous buzz generated during OTAs and now training camp, his value has increased from an ADP of 181.1 to 153.2. Muy caliente!

• On the downside, a bucket of ice has been thrown on once trusted WR2 Mike Wallace. The Ravens receiving corps is a convoluted, indecipherable mess. That combined with Wallace’s failed conditioning test to start training camp triggered alarms. Since August his draft day price tag has dipped from 150.9 to 166.3. Rough.

• Last year’s WR leaders in contested catch percentage, a metric tracked by Player Profiler that calculates contested catch conversions divided by contested catch attempts, in other words dudes who excelled in traffic (Min 12 TGTs): 1) Eric Decker, 2) Marvin Jones, 3) Keenan Allen, 4) A.J. Green, 5) Dez Bryant

• Coby Fleener is arguably the most discussed tight end in Fantasyland this summer. The long-haired former Colt slides into the TE1 role vacated by Ben Watson, who finished as the seventh-best player at the position last year (110-74-825-6). With a 68.7 ADP (TE5) in completed drafts, he’s going approximately 50 picks after Gronk and 30 selections after Reed. On the fast-track in New Orleans, he unquestionably has career-year potential, assuming he doesn’t drop the easy ones.

Below are six pressing questions about WR/TE nearing the heart of draft season.

Wide receivers are largely crowding the top of most drafts whether PPR or standard. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones are typically going 1-2-3. Ignoring DeAndre Hopkins, which pass catcher has the most favorable odds of outpacing the pack?

Scott – I’ve already put my A.J. GREEN stance on paper, and he’s on a bunch of my early rosters. The Bengals lost a ton of targets from last year (not counting the iffy status of TE Tyler Eifert), and Andy Dalton was at a Pro Bowl-level before his thumb injury late last year. Green offers a high enough floor for the first round (even above the fold), but there’s also legitimate WR1 upside.

Brad – JORDY NELSON. On track to return to action after a random turf-monster attack this time last year, the recently activated Nelson is a certifiable dark horse to take the gold at the position. Unstoppable two seasons ago, he amassed a 98-1519-13 line and netted an insane 10.1 yards per target. Quick off the snap, equipped with DB-dusting long-range speed and tough in traffic, he’s one of the game’s most feared receivers when firing on all cylinders. Provided he doesn’t suffer a setback, he and Rodgers are certain to rekindle their bromance.

Andy – A.J. GREEN is the obvious choice here. He’s already given us three seasons with double-digit TDs and 1200-plus yards, and he’s a near-lock to finish with 175 or more targets this year, assuming good health. Cincinnati’s receiving corps lost a pair of familiar names in free agency (Sanu, Jones), and tight end Tyler Eifert is dealing with an injury that could sideline him in September. Green has always been the featured target in this team’s passing game, but it’s going to get ridiculous this season. His floor is something like 90-1250-10, and his ceiling is so much higher.

Every year, PPR leagues, or some variance of, gain popularity with fantasy owners seeking increased scoring enhancements. Keeping the format in mind, list your top-five reception leaders, in order, and tack on one Shocker Special (120-plus ADP) who’ll finish north of 70 catches along with the position’s top rookie?

Brad – 1) Keenan Allen, 2) Antonio Brown, 3) Julio Jones, 4) A.J. Green, 5) Golden Tate, SS – Rishard Matthews, Rookie – Sterling Shepard

Andy – 1) Antonio Brown, 2) Julio Jones, 3) Keenan Allen, 4) A.J. Green, 5) DeAndre Hopkins. Shocker & rookie, Corey Coleman.

Brandon –1) Antonio Brown, 2) Julio Jones, 3) DeAndre Hopkins, 4) Brandon Marshall, 5) Golden Tate, SS – Stefon Diggs, Rookie – Sterling Shepard

What disrespected wide receiver goes all Larry Fitzgerald 2015 and bounces back biggest this fall?

Andy – The general pre-draft hate for KELVIN BENJAMIN has gone too far. He’s a huge target (6-foot-5) with a 1000-yard season on his resume, and he’s tied to the NFL’s highest scoring offense. You’re allowed to like more than one Carolina receiver; this offense is good enough to support multiple starting-quality pass-catchers. No one should be surprised if Benjamin delivers double-digit TDs in 2016.

Brandon – DESEAN JACKSON. Not much is being written about him this summer, but he’s still one of the very best down-field talents in the league and his per game fantasy production in Washington has been much better than his current ADP suggests. Rookie Josh Doctson is not expected to figure heavily into the ‘Skins ’16 plans, and Jordan Reed ranks as one of the top injury risks in the game, so it’s easy to visualize a bounce-back path for D-Jax.

Liz – TORREY SMITH. A speedster deployed from the outside in Chip Kelly’s offense, Smith figures to resume his role as a TD machine in 2016. Taking the top off of defenses – just like Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson did before him – the former Raven stands to see upwards of 100 targets under Kelly. Fearless Forecast: 63-972-9

What overlooked WR is the virtual game’s most undervalued?

Brandon – TRAVIS BENJAMIN. Attached to one of the worst QB situations in the league last season, Benjamin still managed to finish inside the top 30 among WRs in fantasy points. This year, he gets a major upgrade behind center in Philip Rivers, who directed the second-most pass heavy offense in the NFL last season. A big-time downfield threat, Benjamin is a steal at his No. 127 overall price tag in average Yahoo drafts.

Liz – DEVIN FUNCHESS. While Kelvin Benjamin struggles to get back into football shape, Funchess has lit it up in camp. Scoring in four of the five games he started in 2015, the 6-foot-4 and 232 pound wideout figures to be heavily targeted in the red area of the field. Three years younger and boasting a superior athletic profile to Benjamin’s, Funchess is a steal in the double digit rounds of drafts.

Dalton – DOUG BALDWIN. I lay out my case for Baldwin in detail here but in summation, he’s a receiver in his prime with an elite QB throwing to him coming off a season in which he recorded 47 catches for 724 yards and 12(!) touchdowns over the final eight games yet isn’t even being drafted as a top-20 wideout. He got the second most yards-per-target in the NFL last year. Baldwin is getting no respect.

Conversely, what WR is the most overvalued?

Liz – ALLEN ROBINSON. There’s no doubting Robinson’s stud status, but coming off the board in the first round means paying for the Jaguar at peak value. Given the upgrades Jacksonville has made on defense and the addition of goal line gremlin Chris Ivory, this passing game is in line for a regression. Assuming he stays healthy, ARob will absolutely put up WR1 fantasy numbers, but he won’t be a 14TD/top-five producer this go-around.

Dalton – KELVIN BENJAMIN. He hasn’t played in 20 months (when he was highly inefficient), is coming off serious knee surgery and is on the most run-heavy team in football. Recent reports even suggest he’s so out of shape he may start the year in a rotation with limited snaps, yet Benjamin’s ADP is that of a top-20 fantasy WR. Teammate Devin Funchess makes for a much better value pick (and it’s insane Benjamin is going ahead of Baldwin).

Scott – I’m in agreement on the Benjamin selection above, and I’ll also shy away from JORDY NELSON — a handful of players offer similar ceilings with much safer floors. Nelson’s early ADP is asking drafters to take him at the high end of his range of outcomes. I’m not going to get drunk on optimism, given the medical history he’s coming back from.

Play the Powerball. What late-round lottery ticket (100-plus ADP) could have deep-leaguers rolling in greenbacks come year’s end?

Dalton – STERLING SHEPARD. I’m buying into all the hype, as the rookie has been highly impressive throughout camp. Moreover, with a still gimpy Victor Cruz, a shaky running game and a defense that allowed the third-most ppg (27.6) in the NFL last season, Shepard should immediately see a bunch of targets while starting opposite Odell Beckham Jr. There should be plenty of shootouts in the NFC East this season, and Shepard will be a beneficiary.

Scott – For a high floor with a reasonable upside, KAMAR AIKEN is your Huckleberry. If you want to swing more for the fences, PHILIP DORSETT is tied to an elite quarterback (Andrew Luck) and a very skinny Indianapolis usage tree. Dorsett also has a first-round pedigree, not that every NFL team agreed with how the Colts viewed Dorsett at the 2015 Draft.

Brad – DEVIN FUNCHESS. Flava Flav would tell you otherwise, but believe the hype on the second-year wideout. Visibly raw over the first several weeks of 2015, Funchess flourished in the second half totaling a respectable WR32 line from Week 9 on. Practically a mirror image of Benjamin physically, the youngster has made tremendous strides in his route-running, concentration and general approach. Reportedly the MVP of Panthers training camp, he’s potentially a 70-1050-8 producer hiding in the weeds. Said it before and will say it again, it would be no surprise if he outplays an out-of-shape and rusty Benjamin.

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Squeezing in a TE question, out of our consensus top-10, which plus-sized target has the best chance of landing among elites and finish top-five?

Brad – DWAYNE ALLEN. 98-1287-18. Two years ago that was the combined line of Colts tight ends. Offensive coordinators are different, but important parts (e.g. Andrew Luck) and the scheme are mostly the same. With Fleener now partying hard on Bourbon Street, the door of opportunity swings open wide for Allen. Luck has numerous mouths to feed, but on a team with a highly suspect defense, he’s likely to see appreciable targets, possibly as many as 90-100. If it all comes together, he could max out in the 65-875-9 range.

Andy – As of this moment, ERIC EBRON (ankle) is expected to be available for the regular season opener. Detroit clearly needs him to make a third-year leap, now that Calvin is out of the mix. If we get a mostly healthy season from Ebron, then a 65-850-8 fantasy line is definitely in play.

Scott – DWAYNE ALLEN is a fine answer, for all the reasons The Noise stated above. Allen also gets to work with OC Rob Chudzinski, who is known for getting the most out of the TE position. I’m also excited to see MARTELLUS BENNETT work in New England; Tom Brady loves to throw inside the numbers (to his biggest targets), and the Patriots don’t have outstanding intermediate and deep threats on the outside. A double-digit touchdown season is well within Bennett’s grasp.

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