Who's No. 1?

There are years to have the No. 1 overall pick. 2013, for instance. Adrian Peterson was 28 and coming off a 2,097-yard season. You took him. But that sort of clarity is fleeting at the top. Where 2013 had Peterson, most years have a jumble of injuries and confusion. 2015 features questions inside of questions, and headaches on top of heartburn. Can Le’Veon Bell produce enough to make up for two missed games? Is Jamaal Charles starting to break down? Can Peterson storm back from his exile? There are no clear answers.

So we’ve established this season lacks consensus at the top. What it does not lack is contenders. Especially with fantasy drafters more open than ever to first-round receivers, viable cases can be made for almost a dozen players at No. 1. Some of them are much flimsier than others, but I think these 10 deserve a fair trial. Without further ado, here are this year’s most-worthy candidates for the No. 1 overall pick in standard leagues. I think three stand out above the rest.

Note: This list is not the order I’m drafting in this summer. The first five were determined via FantasyPros’ consensus ADP. The next five are players outside the top five I believe have at least a reasonable case for No. 1 overall.

Jamaal Charles

ADP: 1.8

Case For: Consistent and durable, Charles has never averaged fewer than 5.0 yards per carry. He’s missed more than one game just once in seven NFL seasons. Both feats are practically unheard of for modern NFL running backs. The funnel through which the Chiefs’ offense is filtered, Charles is still only 28, and has a modest 1,511 career touches to his name. Time and career workload are still on his side.

Case Against: Durable though he may be, Charles touched the ball just 246 times last season as he battled minor ankle, knee and hamstring issues. He also played a smaller role in the passing game, averaging 3.9 targets after posting a 6.9 mark in 2013. With Knile Davis proving to be one of the league’s best backups, perhaps the Chiefs are ready to start handling their veteran workhorse with greater care.

My Take: If you’re searching for predictability, Charles is hard to pass up at No. 1, but his upside isn’t what it once was. From Eddie Lacy to Marshawn Lynch, there are also arguably “safer” options, whatever that means at a position with staggering injury attrition. There’s no clear-cut argument that Charles is even the top fantasy running back, so why make him fantasy’s top overall player? Charles would likely work out just fine as your No. 1 pick, but I’m searching for greater ceiling.

Adrian Peterson

ADP: 2.0

Case For: Peterson is one of the greatest players in league history. He is three years removed from an historic campaign, and two years removed from an elite one.

Case Against: The dossier against Peterson is thick. Peterson talk can sometimes take on the air of myth and superstition. Peterson isn’t like other football players. This is well established. But he is a human being, one who has played one football game in the past 20 months, and turned 30 in the interim. Even for a player of Peterson’s caliber, it’s a leap of faith to assume he’ll simply pick up where he left off. And it’s important to remember he isn’t picking up on his 2,097-yard 2012, but a more modest 2013. Peterson’s last campaign saw him average 4.5 yards per carry, and finish as the RB6 in fantasy leagues. Along the way, he dealt with foot, groin and hamstring issues. The last runner over the age 30 to finish as a top-10 fantasy back was Thomas Jones in 2009.

My Take: It’s not crazy to assume Peterson will bounce back from his lost 2014 as the star he’s always been, but the case for him at No. 1 overall doesn’t progress far past “he’s Adrian Peterson.” With players like Charles, Lacy, Lynch — among others — all coming off strong 2014s with fewer question marks, the case for Peterson at No. 1 simply isn’t good enough. Peterson won’t be a consideration for me in leagues where I have the top spot.

Eddie Lacy

ADP: 2.3

Case For: Rolling into his prime, Lacy is a 25-year-old bowling ball who has scored 24 touchdowns in 31 NFL games. Playing for the league’s highest-powered offense, he was the RB7 as a rookie and RB6 as a sophomore. Appearing in all 16 games, Lacy averaged 4.63 yards per carry in 2014, and 5.04 over the season’s final eight games. He also came into his own as a receiver, catching 42 passes for 427 yards and four scores. The only RBs to average more yards per catch than Lacy’s 10.2 were Roy Helu and Le’Veon Bell. Lacy is a versatile, complete back, one who operates from Aaron Rodgers’ jumpseat.

Case Against: Lacy is a violent runner, one who has suffered two concussions. Most running backs can reasonably be labeled as “injury risks,” of course, but it rings particularly true in Lacy’s case. You could also argue Lacy is more of a “floor” than “ceiling” back. Although a huge part of the Packers’ offense, he isn’t the foundation in the way that Charles and Lynch are.

My Take: There isn’t a safer bet at No. 1 overall. Lacy is a versatile, consistent back, one who despite an “injury-prone” reputation has missed only one game in two NFL seasons. He is the goal-line back for the league’s best offense, and now a proven threat on dump-offs and screens. There are two other players I’m seriously considering at No. 1 — more on that later — but Lacy is in the right place at the right time to be fantasy’s top producer.

Marshawn Lynch

ADP: 4.3

Case For: The guy is literally named “Beast Mode.” Seattle’s 2014 was supposed to end with Lynch being shown the door. Instead, people couldn’t believe they didn’t give him the ball. Lynch is everything you should want in a top-five fantasy pick. Durable and consistent, Lynch has scored at least 13 touchdowns in each of the past four seasons, including a career-high 17 last year. Lynch’s age and workload are both getting near the outer limits for a bellcow NFL back, but his claim to the No. 1 throne is as good as anyone’s in football.

Case Against: It’s not a particularly strong one. Lynch has missed one game in five years, and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry since the start of the 2012 season. He’s coming off a career campaign as a pass catcher. With Russell Wilson on the rise and Jimmy Graham now in the fold, the ‘Hawks may not have to ride “Beast Mode” to the extremes they have the past five seasons, but his floor is every bit that of a top-five player. It’s just his ceiling isn’t No. 1 overall. Go for gold with the top spot. Lynch is an excellent silver or bronze.

My Take: I’m thinking bigger at No. 1, but waiting for Lynch to fall to me at No. 4 or 5.

Le’Veon Bell

ADP: 4.8

Case For: Coming off one of the most jaw-dropping breakout campaigns in recent memory, Bell was fantasy’s most consistent running back last season. Once — that’s how many times Bell failed to either score a touchdown or surpass 100 yards from scrimmage. Once. In 16 games. His 854 receiving yards were 40th in the NFL, while his 2,215 yards from scrimmage were second only to DeMarco Murray’s 2,261. That’s despite the fact that Murray touched the ball 76 more times. If not for a curiously-low touchdown total (11), Bell would have run away with RB1 overall status.

Case Against: As a fantasy prospect, Bell is almost too good to be true. He’s dynamic as a runner, a difference maker in the passing game and the No. 1 threat to score for a team that wants to average 30 points per game this season. But it is too good to be true for 2015. That’s because Bell is suspended for the first two games of the season. Coupled with the Steelers’ Week 11 bye, it means Bell is already slated to miss 23 percent of the 13-week fantasy schedule. Bell is great, but is he that much better than the players he’s up against for the No. 1 overall pick?

My Take: Bell comes with greater risk than anyone else on this list, but also greater upside. Yes, you will be missing Bell for Weeks 1 and 2, but you will not be starting a blank space. You will still get points, albeit from a backup. If you can’t take the plunge, I can’t blame you. Every football player should be expected to miss games, so why lock yourself into someone who’s already been docked two. It’s just that Bell’s role is the stuff that dreams are made of. He scored fewer than 10.0 fantasy points one time in 16 games last season. Beast Mode was held below 10.0 four times, Charles six and Lacy four. For me, having Lacy in Weeks 1 and 2 is enough to put him above Bell, but when it comes to everyone else, I’ll weather three weeks of my bench (suspension and bye) for 10 of Bell.

Dez Bryant

ADP: 10.5

Case For: The most consistent WR1 in fantasy, Bryant is also the league’s premier touchdown artist. Over the past three seasons, Bryant has found the end zone 12, 13 and 16 times, good for an average of 13.6. Combined, Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Johnson have mustered three 13-score campaigns in 17 total NFL seasons. Bryant is a force of nature, one who bettered his 2013 totals by three scores 87 yards last year despite drawing 22 fewer targets. He is unstoppable, and in his prime.

Case Against: Bryant’s touchdowns give him one of the highest floors in fantasy football, but his ceiling simply does not match that of many of the running backs, or even Odell Beckham. Bryant also comes with lower reception upside than Beckham and Brown, meaning his weekly floor is missing a pillar Beckham and Brown provide. Bryant is capable of singlehandedly winning weeks, but also comes with a higher dud potential than most on this list. Bryant’s multi-touchdown games are fantasy bonanzas, but he scored fewer than 10.0 fantasy points six times last season. Brown was held below 10.0 only three times, while OBJ was held below 9.3 exactly once in 11 games as a starter.

My Take: If you want pure safety at No. 1 overall, Bryant is a great pick. There are simply better combinations of weekly floor and ceiling. Bryant is a first-rounder, but not the first rounder.

Rob Gronkowski

ADP: 13.5

Case For: No player provides a bigger weekly edge at their position. Gronk averaged 2.2 more points than any other tight end in 2014, and 2.4 more than his one-time equal Jimmy Graham. Including the playoffs, Gronk either scored a touchdown or tallied 90 receiving yards in 15-of-18 contests. Gronk has managed a minimum of 10 touchdowns in every season where he’s played at least 11 games. Almost no one finds the end zone with greater frequency than Gronk, who buttresses his floor by soaking up receptions and yards to go along with his scores.

Case Against: Yes, Gronk is without peer at tight end, but he’s also in the middle of the pack when it comes to non-QB fantasy points. Combined, 18 wideouts and runners averaged more than Gronk’s weekly 12.3 in 2014. In guaranteeing yourself a weekly edge at fantasy’s most-neglected position are you also leaving too many points on the board by not taking a higher-upside running back or receiver?

My Take: Gronk’s single tier atop the tight end ranks is worth the plunge near the end of Round 1, but I simply have to have a player who is a weekly threat for 15-18 points at No. 1 overall. That means someone like Lacy, Bell or DeMarco Murray. I’ll mix and match upside TE2s instead of paying the iron price for Gronk.

DeMarco Murray

ADP: 13.8

Case For: Murray was the best running back in the league last season. En route to amassing 1,845 yards on the ground — 484 more than anyone in football, and the second-highest total of the 2010s — Murray seized control of the Cowboys’ offense from Tony Romo, and led Dallas to its first NFC East title since 2009. Murray also did damage through the air, where his 57 receptions and 416 yards ranked fourth and seventh, respectively, amongst runners. His 2,261 yards from scrimmage were 12th all time. No non-quarterback averaged more weekly fantasy points than Murray’s 19.0. Coming off a dominant campaign and the owner of a lifetime 4.84 YPC, Murray is one of the best all-around players in football, and in the prime of his career.

Case Against: Murray dominated “real” and fantasy football alike last season. So why is his ADP in the second round? For starters, he’s left behind Dallas’ league-best offensive line. Then there’s his injury history. A big part of Murray’s career 2014 was the fact that it was the first time he managed to stay healthy for all 16 games. Murray plays upright, which usually ups the injury risk for a runner. Then there’s the matter of Murray’s backfield competition. In Dallas, he didn’t have any. In Philly, there’s Darren Sproles to siphon passing-game targets, and Ryan Mathews to offer breathers. Breaks were something Murray didn’t get in 2014, where he touched the ball 449 times during the regular season, and 497 overall. Only three players have ever handled the ball more times in one year. Further down that road, just 10 other backs have run the ball 390 times in one season, with Eric Dickerson doing it twice. How did they fare the following year? 7-of-11 were held to fewer than 1,000 yards. You don’t bang into NFL defenders 497 freaking times without paying some sort of price.

My Take: Murray is not going to match his historic 2014. Good thing he doesn’t have to. Murray was not a creation of Dallas’ dominant offensive line. His 4.70 YPC last season was actually lower than his pre-2014 mark of 4.90. Murray has never needed linemen to clear his lanes, even if they did an elite job of it last year. Murray has also never needed boffo workloads to place himself amongst the fantasy elite. Murray was the RB8 in 2013 despite missing two games and handling the ball only 270 times. And he’s not exactly going to be running behind lambs in Philly. The Eagles have been Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 run blocking team in both of Chip Kelly’s seasons as head coach.

Is Murray’s 2014 workload a concern? Yes. But 11 disparate seasons scattered across 31 years do not constitute a “trend.” They’re disconnected data points. To wit, one of those 11 post-390 carry campaigns was Eric Dickerson’s 1984, where he rushed for a still-record 2,105 yards. If you’re hung up on Sproles and Mathews, I can’t be quite as forceful. Murray has more competition for touches than he did in Dallas. There’s no way around it. But Kelly didn’t give Murray $21 million guaranteed to play pattycake with Ryan Mathews. And even though Sproles dominated passing-game touches last year, LeSean McCoy still caught 28 balls. That’s Murray’s absolute floor as a receiver. I’m also not convinced Kelly is prepared to lean on Sproles as is popularly believed. Sproles has missed time with injury each of the past three seasons, and Kelly backed off considerably after funneling Sproles 26 combined touches in Weeks 1 and 2 last season. From there on out, Sproles averaged a modest 4.7 weekly touches.

Last but not least is Murray’s “injury history.” Yes, he’s seemed to get hurt a lot. But he appeared in 30-of-32 games in 2013-14. The excellent SportsInjuryPredictor.com actually considers his 2015 injury risk “medium,” the same as Charles, and (much) lower than Lacy and Bell.

My Take, Attempted Summary: Murray’s role, workload, injury and offensive line concerns are not what they are made out to be. Murray is not going to match last year’s utterly-dominant campaign, but he’s still one of the league’s very best — if not best — backs playing for a creative, run-obsessed coach. Even if he’s part of a committee, he’s making chairman money. Murray has red flags, but so does everyone else on this list. The only players I’d consider over him at No. 1 overall are Lacy and Bell.

Odell Beckham

ADP: 12.3

Case For: There wasn’t a more-electrifying player in football last season. Beckham finished as the WR5 despite missing four games and starting only 11. After becoming an every-week starter, Beckham averaged 17.8 fantasy points, a number that would have led all wideouts by 2.2. Even with his lousy non-start thrown in, Beckham turned in 17.2 weekly points, 1.6 more than Antonio Brown. In each of his final nine contests, Beckham caught at least six passes for 90 yards, a stunning statistic. A breathtaking playmaker, Beckham is simply uncoverable, and capable of making catches no one else in the NFL can. He is the focal point of the Giants’ offense, and an every-week difference maker in fantasy.

Case Against: To say Beckham’s track record is short for a potential No. 1 overall pick is an understatement. You can draft any player in football — should it really be someone with 12 career appearances? And however dominant OBJ was a rookie, he still didn’t average the weekly points of a Murray or Bell. Unlike Gronk, Beckham is not separated from his rivals by a canyon. Brown, Bryant, Thomas, Julio Jones and Megatron are all viable competitors for WR1 overall status.

My Take: Beckham’s upside is stratospheric, but Lacy, Bell and Murray are all more sensible bets at No. 1 overall. That may not be the case a year from now.

Antonio Brown

ADP: 7.3

Case For: Unusually consistent for a receiver, Brown has caught at least five passes for 50 yards in 33-straight games. The WR1 last season, Brown was the WR7 in 2013. His 129 receptions last year were the second most all time. Defenses don’t know how to cover Brown. He zips in and out of breaks like a phantom, and doesn’t drop passes. Despite standing in at 5-foot-10, he’s caught 21 touchdowns over his past 32 games. Even in a crowded WR1 tier, Brown has a floor/ceiling combination that is unmatched.

Case Against: Consistent though he may be, Brown’s average 15.6 fantasy points would have ranked fifth amongst running backs last season. He was outplayed by Beckham in the second half of the year, and does not separate from his peers at his position the way Gronk does.

My Take: Brown is a unique, elite talent, but with everyone on the board, he’s not who I’m taking at No. 1 overall.

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