What we know about the path to College Football Playoff's Selection Sunday

Five days from the real thing, the College Football Playoff committee rankings laid out a clear path to Selection Sunday. This much we know:

• At No. 2 and with no games remaining, Ohio State will be the first team in the three-year history of the playoff to make the field without winning a conference championship. It’s very hard to envision a scenario where the Buckeyes could go from No. 2 to out of the bracket.

• It seems likely that No. 3 Clemson and No. 4 Washington will lock up playoff spots by winning the ACC and Pac-12 championship games, respectively. If either loses – Clemson plays Virginia Tech on Saturday, Washington plays Colorado on Friday – that would open the door for No. 5 Michigan or the Big Ten champion, which would be the continuation of a juicy debate. If both Clemson and Washington lose, it could get even more interesting.

• The selection committee agrees with me that the two best teams in the Big Ten are not the two playing for the league championship. It has the No. 2 Buckeyes and No. 5 Michigan ahead of No. 6 Wisconsin and No. 7 Penn State. The Wolverines fell out of the top four with the loss at Ohio State, but remain on the doorstep waiting either for some help or a committee recalculation to get in the bracket.

• Selection committee chairman Kirby Hocutt said Tuesday night that the separation between Washington and Michigan is “very, very small.” Reading between Hocutt’s lines, this seems to be one of the major points of committee debate – and certainly the most significant point of debate. The problem for the Wolverines is that they cannot do anything else to improve their résumé at this point. A close win for the Huskies over Colorado might not be enough to cost it that No. 4 spot – unless the committee decides to compare scores. Michigan already has beaten Colorado by 17 points this season, in Ann Arbor.

• Putting the Wolverines at the head of the two-loss pecking order appears to be a nod to head-to-head against teams with the same records: They’ve beaten the Badgers (by seven), Nittany Lions (by 39) and No. 8 Colorado (by the aforementioned 17).

• The Big 12 appears done, as expected for weeks and as it should be. The highest rated team from that league is No. 9 Oklahoma, followed by No. 10 Oklahoma State. It would seem all but impossible to vault from there to the top four, especially since at least two of the teams in front of them are guaranteed to win games this weekend (Washington-Colorado and Wisconsin-Penn State winners). If they’re ahead of the Big 12’s best now, they should remain there Sunday. Flipping Colorado and Oklahoma from last week’s rankings was a small but significant change.

• Top-ranked Alabama appears fully capable of losing the SEC championship game to Florida and remaining in the playoff. The risk would be losing the geographic proximity of playing a semifinal game in Atlanta and instead being shipped to Glendale, Ariz.

• Western Michigan has a two-spot advantage over Navy for the Group-of-Five bid to a New Year’s Six bowl. The undefeated Broncos are No. 17, while the Midshipmen are No. 19. If both win their championship games, Western Michigan has the inside track for the Cotton Bowl unless Navy is simply overwhelming against Temple. If one loses, the other should be a lock for the Cotton. If both lose, Temple would seem the likely Cotton Bowl team. And Navy could hold up the entire process for another week because it has a Dec. 10 season finale against Army.

• Although Louisville beat Florida State by 43 points and the two have identical 9-3 records, the Seminoles have the inside track over the Cardinals for the Orange Bowl by virtue of being ranked No. 12 to Louisville’s 13. That appears to be one of the few situations where the selection committee did not use head-to-head results to dictate a close ranking between teams with the same or similar records. (See: 10-2 Michigan ahead of 10-2 Wisconsin, Penn State and Colorado; 8-4 Tennessee ahead of 9-3 Virginia Tech).

Hocutt on that particular ranking: “Strength of schedule is significant, the separation there. Florida State has played a much tougher schedule. Louisville does hold the head-to-head, but as you said, that was early in the season, Week 3 if I remember correctly, so we talked about in the eyes of the Selection Committee who is the better football team at this particular time, and that is Florida State. Strength of schedule was a factor there but also as to how those two teams have played in recent weeks.”

• Similarly, Auburn’s No. 14 ranking over No. 15 Florida could resonate in terms of which SEC team goes to the Sugar Bowl.

• Hot Now has its limits when the overall body of work has flaws. Exhibit A of that is 9-3 USC, which has won eight straight games and beaten teams like Colorado and Washington in that stretch, but cannot crack the committee’s top 10. The Trojans have topped out at No. 11.

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