Week 11 Preview: Ride the Marcus Mariota wave

Let’s preview this week’s NFL action by first focusing on the games that are expected to produce the most real and fantasy points before I go around the league to highlight the key players we should be watching and why. An important note every week: check the player’s status. There is so much injury uncertainty and Friday’s practice, which occurs after this is posted, is key.

Titans at Colts (O/U: 53): In his past six games, Marcus Mariota ($36) has 17 TDs, 3 INTS and two rushing TDs. And Rishard Matthews ($21) has been a primary beneficiary with six TD catches in the span. Tajae Sharpe ($10) had his first TD last week but actually leads the Titans in targets and is cheap if you want to try to ride a Mariota wave. DeMarco Murray ($39) is the most valuable fantasy asset that no one is really talking about with nearly 1,189 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs in 10 games. Donte Moncrief ($19) gets his touchdowns but has not topped 64 receiving yards yet this year. Frank Gore ($22) has been a solid zeroRB but no one is winning their fantasy league because they drafted Gore. He’s just a piece in the puzzle. The 5.4 yards per reception shows the explosion is gone, yet he somehow has three receiving TDs.

[Week 11 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

Patriots at 49ers (O/U: 51): Colin Kaepernick ($27) is money. Once you start your projection with 5-6 rushing points, you’re off to the races. Add 220 passing yards and a passing TD to that and you have a 21-point day. And that’s Kaepernick’s floor (admittedly not too far below his ceiling). I think he beats that in this spot given the chance for garbage time against a non-dominant New England pass defense that doesn’t like to rush many and thus invites scrambling. The question is whether LeGarrette Blount ($30) gets two or three TDs this week. He’s zeroRB gold. Rob Gronkowski ($29) can’t be rostered as we write this but update his status throughout the week. Julian Edelman ($21) looked really good against the Seahawks in Week 10 and should be elevated in the rankings — especially if Gronk is out.

Packers at Redskins (O/U: 50.5): Kirk Cousins ($32) is due a three-plus TD game and I predict it happens here. He’s been very good at home throughout his career, too. Note the Packers are 29th in yards allowed per pass. And Cousins and the Redskins are eighth best in the statistic. It’s hard to know who Cousins will target week to week but that’s actually good for him because it makes the offense much harder to defend. Expect 70-80% Redskins passing given the likely need to score plus the Packers’ stout run defense. Chris Thompson ($12) could finally deliver some fantasy results in line with coach’s Jay Gruden’s professed love for him. But note that the Packers have been good at limiting running back catches (38 for 274 yards). Forget the Packers running game. Go all in on Aaron Rodgers ($35) passing volume and assume that Davante Adams ($23) again leads the team in targets.

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Notebook

— Marvin Jones ($19) is out of the circle of trust and Golden Tate ($25) is in, but I think it pays to be contrarian here and back Jones.

— I’d like to see more downfield success by Allen Robinson ($23) but he’s back to being a borderline No. 1 fantasy wideout. He needs Blake Bortles to be no worse than merely bad, however. If he’s terrible, Robinson won’t be playable.

— The volume of Doug Martin ($22) was solid in his return but the efficiency was poor, so it’s hard to know if he’s fully back. But the certainty of touches including the goal-line ones makes him a solid play.

— Cameron Meredith ($12) isn’t bettable until Jay Cutler proves he has any chemistry with him.

— Michael Floyd ($12) is unowned in most Yahoo! leagues and Carson Palmer ($29) said he expects a big second half. Palmer backed that up with Floyd targets last week against San Francisco.

— Never be too disappointed when a tight end disappears in a game like Tyler Eifert ($21) did last week. This is not hard for teams to do to more than a handful of true superstars. Expect Eifert to bounce back. He’s the rare tight end capable of helping you actually win a week.

— Ezekiel Elliott ($36) is really good and in a great running environment. The position is team dependent unless you are an out-of-this-world talent like Barry Sanders. We can only judge them by what they do and Elliott is in the conversation to be the first rookie MVP since the first MVP — 1957 Jim Brown.

— We’re back to road Ben Roethlisberger. You have to play him in annual given the matchup here but this is the acid test to see whether these ungodly bad road splits (10 touchdowns and 14 picks since 2015) are due to some issue like perhaps him not being able to sleep in hotels. I’d back Le’Veon Bell ($40) this week in daily.

— Do we know that Todd Gurley ($21) is good in a bad environment or is it possible he’s just a bust? No one seems to be considering the latter possibility. Gurley is having the 8th worst rushing season since the 1970 merger (yards per rush, minimum 150 rushes) for a 21-to-23-year-old back — and it’s not like no other top one had a similarly bad hand. Yes, 1996 Marshall Faulk is 4th, something for Gurley owners to hold onto. But the rest of the worst 10: Lee Bouggess, Jonathan Wells, Bernard Pierce, Trent Richardson, Louis Carger, Po James, Alfred Blue and Karim Abdul-Jabbar. Odds appear high that Gurley’s talent was very overrated.

— There is not enough separation in the prices between C.J. Prosise ($18) and Thomas Rawls ($14) now, but let’s not pretend the Seahawks ran the ball well last week (3.7 yards per rush on 26 totes).