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Week 1 Best Bets: Taking two road favorites to get my feet wet

I said my prayers and took my vitamins and drank my milk, and I'm hoping it all pays off with a rebound year against the spread.

Things were rough in 2013, I'm not going to lie. I was in a slump that morphed into a vortex that ended up somewhere in the abyss. It has to get better. Right?

Well, I'm not going to get too cute too soon, either way. Sticking with what I believe will prove to be good teams in favorable matchups. Sticking with favorites. Laying the points.

Saints (-3½) over Falcons: This line moved some -- all of these I picked did -- but more money is coming in on New Orleans. I don't think Atlanta has the pass rush to slow down Drew Brees, and the Saints might be a juggernaut. I like the Falcons to improve this season but don't see them hanging with Super Bowl contenders.

Patriots (-5½) over Dolphins: Rob Gronkowski is likely to play, don't fear this Tom Brady injury and another year of these young receivers with Brady has to help. Danny Amendola is healthy and Julian Edelman will have another big year. There is a multitude of running backs. Miami might be better this season but I want to see it to believe it. Belichick with this much time to prepare has to be a good thing.

Bears (-7½) over Bills: This offense is special, the Bills are hoping and praying EJ Manuel is an NFL quarterback and they have issues along the offensive line. Losing Jairus Byrd and Kiko Alonso sounds like trouble to me for Buffalo's defense, and I'm sure Marc Trestman has some tricks up his sleeve for Week 1.

>> More NFL Week 1: Expert Picks

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