Waiver Wire: Week 14

Last week provided us with some rare late-season plug-n-play options like Dan Herron, Kenny Stills and Kyle Rudolph. I don’t see nearly as much fantasy nectar on the vine this week. It’s arguably the most barren week of Waiver Wire action we’ve seen all year, which is as expected given we’re so deep into the year at Week 14. But we’ll trek on and search for our best shots at some value before we turn into a pumpkin.

On to the Week 14 assets. Here is how I would rank the players available in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues right now. Notes and recommendations on each player will follow.

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Quarterbacks
1. Johnny Manziel
2. Ryan Fitzpatrick
3. Colt McCoy

Running backs
1. Andre Williams
2. Marion Grice
3. Doug Martin
4. Jonathan Stewart
5. Pierre Thomas
6. Michael Bush
* Daniel Herron is owned in 47 percent of Yahoo leagues. If available, he’d be my No. 1 add at RB.
* Latavius Murray is owned in 49 percent of Yahoo leagues. If available, he’d be my No. 2 add at RB.

Wide receivers
1. Jarvis Landry
2. Charles Johnson
3. Donte Moncrief
4. Stedman Bailey
5. Robert Woods
* Kenny Stills is owned in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues. If available, he’d be my No. 1 add at WR.

Tight ends
1. Jordan Reed
2. Tim Wright
3. Mychal Rivera

Defense/Special Teams
1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Saints
4. Ravens

Kickers
1. Connor Barth
2. Shayne Graham
3. Matt Prater


QUARTERBACKS
1. Johnny Manziel, Browns – Owned in 13 percent of Yahoo leagues
I fully expect Johnny Manziel to get the nod over Brian Hoyer in Week 14. The real question is what will he do with the opportunity and how will the Browns use him? We got a glimpse during Manziel’s two drives Sunday, as Kyle Shanahan called three bootlegs on JFF’s first five snaps. Expect Shanny to install a very run-heavy gameplan, much like he did when he was in charge of the Redskins’ offense during Robert Griffin III’s rookie year. That’s OK though, as we saw a designed pass out of a shotgun turn into a 10-yard touchdown run for Manziel Sunday. I also thought JFF was highly accurate with his throws and had excellent zip on them, encouraging signs when we’re mainly betting on a player’s legs to fill the box score. I’ll give him a pass on the overturned fumble-6 as he simply wasn’t ready for the snap. Moreover, Manziel has Josh Gordon on his side and could get Jordan Cameron (concussion) back. He’ll also be at home against a Colts defense that falls apart without Vontae Davis (concussion, questionable). In 130 preseason snaps (roughly two games), Manziel went 30-of-59 for 296 yards with two TDs and 0 INT. He also rushed 12 times for 88 yards with another TD. Given the spot I’m comfortable ranking Manziel as a top-14 QB play this week, with upside for more. He’s someone I’d strongly consider for $6700 in FanDuel 50/50s, Double Ups and Head-to-Head matchups.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

2. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Texans – Owned in 8 percent of Yahoo leagues
If you read my Friday column about what I like and what I don’t on FanDuel ahead of Week 13, you know I liked Ryan Fitzpatrick’s value at QB-min price. However, I did not expect him to carry any kind of serious upside at all – three touchdowns would have surprised me, let alone six. Now Fitzpatrick goes to Jacksonville to face a defense that has held Andrew Luck and Eli Manning in check over the last two weeks. I’ll certainly let others chase Fitzpatrick on FanDuel, but I do think he’s in play for season-long owners. The Jags figure to let down a bit as they finally got their second win, and it’s easier to pass on them than run. Fitzpatrick is only a top-20 kind of quarterback play though, don’t expect an outburst again.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues

3. Colt McCoy, Redskins – Owned in 6 percent of Yahoo leagues
Colt McCoy isn’t very good, but his skill set meshes reasonably well with the pocket-passer scheme Jay Gruden insists on using. So even though he needed a lot of garbage time to get there against the Colts, McCoy is now averaging 345.5 passing yards and 2.0 total touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) in his two starts this season. He’s able to get the rock to Jordan Reed, a key piece for this athletically-deprived team, and also has good chemistry with DeSean Jackson (11-220-1 on 13 targets in McCoy’s two starts). McCoy will be poor QB2 option in a Week 14 home game against a Rams defense that has been swallowing opposing quarterbacks whole for the last month. But I will like McCoy in Week 15 (at NYG) and especially Week 16 (vs. PHL).
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues

Watch List: Kyle Orton, Teddy Bridgewater, Shaun Hill – All the revenge narratives for Orton this week as he goes back to Denver. The problem is this Broncos defense is really, really good. … Bridgewater gets the dream – home against the Jets. There’s still major concern over whether he can take advantage of it. … The Redskins secondary is a blown coverage waiting to happen. It’s Hill’s turn to face them.

RUNNING BACKS
1. Andre Williams, Giants – Owned in 40 percent of Yahoo leagues
Here we go again with Andre Williams. A massive disappointment the first time Rashad Jennings went down, Williams may get another shot after RJ injured his ankle at Jacksonville Sunday. I normally wouldn’t even consider adding a player as limited as Williams (2.93 YPC, 11 catches on year), but the Giants are facing the Titans this week. Over the last four weeks, the Titans have given up 19-79-0 to Arian Foster, 21-109-1 to LeSean McCoy, 33-204-1 to Le’Veon Bell and 20-112-2 to Justin Forsett. This is the NFL’s worst run defense by most available metrics – perhaps even the sluggish Williams can take advantage.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

2. Marion Grice, Cardinals – Owned in 1 percent of Yahoo leagues
The pickings are very slim at running back if you’re looking for a plug-n-play. One option is Marion Grice, who took over the Cardinals’ feature back after Andre Ellington’s hip pointer Sunday and is expected to start in Week 14 if Ellington is out. Grice, a sixth-round pick of the Chargers who lost a camp battle to Branden Oliver, rushed five times for 16 yards and caught three passes for 24 yards. He was clearly ahead of Stepfan Taylor even though Taylor came on for a garbage-time TD catch in the fourth quarter. Grice is a middling talent, but he’s a versatile player that can play in the pass game – which is important given the state of this Cardinals team. If he gets the call, I think 10-14 touches for Grice with Michael Bush and Stepfan Taylor in support is a fair projection. The Chiefs defense is far more susceptible to the run than the pass, especially recently.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

3. Doug Martin, Bucs – Owned in 45 percent of Yahoo leagues
Left for dead by just about everyone (including me), Martin resurfaced as the clear-cut starter in Tampa following his ankle injury. Over the last two games, Martin has rushed 29 times compared to 11 for passing back Charles Sims. Martin is a poor bet for effectiveness in this broken run game and isn’t a realistic option against Detroit in Week 14, but he could get on the flex radar for Week 15 at Carolina.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues

4. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – Owned in 27 percent of Yahoo leagues
Quietly, Jonathan Stewart has sustained a bit of health this season and flashed some of the early-career form that made him one of the NFL’s rising studs at running back. He’s averaging 4.25 YPC, his highest mark since 2011, and is tied for fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Of course, Stewart hasn’t been a realistic fantasy option at any point because of the Panthers’ woeful offensive line and a timeshare with DeAngelo Williams. But with Williams (hand) in doubt for this week, Stewart at least deserves to be on radars for a reasonable Week 14 matchup at New Orleans.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues

5. Pierre Thomas, Saints – Owned in 43 percent of Yahoo leagues
We know that Pierre Thomas is a game-flow dependent back. The more the Saints spread the field, the more they’re trailing, the more they go no-huddle, then the more Thomas will play. That wasn’t the case at Pittsburgh in Week 13, as Drew Brees was forced to throw just 27 passes and the Saints coasted to an easy win. And I don’t think it’ll be the case in a Week 14 home game against the Panthers. But PPR owners can still bank on 2-4 catches per game, with upside for more just in case the tables get turned.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team PPR leagues

6. Michael Bush, Cardinals – Owned in 1 percent of Yahoo leagues
Cut by the Bears in March, the Cardinals finally plucked Michael Bush off the street one week ago. He obviously wasn’t ready to play at Atlanta last week, but I’d expect him to be active this week – especially if Andre Ellington (hip) can’t go. We don’t know what kind of shape Bush is in, but we do know the Cardinals were talking him up as a short-yardage and goal-line back even before Ellington’s injury. It’s at least conceivable that Bush will get a shot to find the end zone against the Chiefs Sunday.
Recommendation: Should be owned in TD-heavy 14-team leagues

Watch List: Carlos Hyde, Knile Davis, C.J. Spiller, Theo Riddick – Hyde is your weekly reminder to handcuff properly. … Davis gets his own mention with Jamaal Charles bruising a knee Sunday night. … Spiller is eligible to come off IR Week 16. … Riddick is a PPR option anytime Reggie Bush sits, which has been often lately. Bush is expected back Week 14 though.

WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Jarvis Landry, Dolphins – Owned in 40 percent of Yahoo leagues
Taking over as the co-No. 1 pass-catcher for Ryan Tannehill, Jarvis Landry has seen at least 10 targets in three of the last four weeks and is averaging 6.7-54.2-0.7 over the last month. His short-area route tree isn’t the kind of player we’re typically looking for, but Landry makes up for it with volume in any leagues that reward even a half-point for a reception. A home game against the Ravens’ barren secondary in Week 14 is a great spot to use Landry as your WR3.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

2. Charles Johnson, Vikings – Owned in 18 percent of Yahoo leagues
Despite a very disappointing 2-41-0 line on four targets Sunday, I’m not giving up on Charles Johnson. Over the last two weeks he’s played on 97.4 percent of the snaps and over the last three weeks he leads the team with 22 targets. Cordarrelle Patterson is the No. 4 receiver, Greg Jennings is done and Jarius Wright is a sub-average player. Johnson was hurt on Sunday by game flow (the Vikings used two special teams touchdowns to take an early 21-3 lead), something won’t often be an issue for this mediocre team. He also has a very plus matchup in Week 14 against a Jets defense that stuffs the run but can’t defend the pass. I like Johnson as a WR3 again.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team leagues

3. Donte Moncrief, Colts – Owned in 5 percent of Yahoo leagues
Last season, the Colts refused to hand the keys to Andrew Luck and it cost them over and over again. They refuse to give up on an inept Trent Richardson even though he’s terrible. And so far this year, they’ve refused to kick a washed up Hakeem Nicks to the curb in favorite of physical freak rookie Donte Moncrief. Well, hopefully that’s changing. Moncrief has out-snapped Nicks in two straight weeks now, putting 3-134-2 on the Redskins Sunday while playing on 52.8 percent of the snaps. If we can get that closer to 70 percent, we’ll have a weekly WR3 with upside. For now, we have a boom-or-bust play in Week 14 at Cleveland, although the idea of Joe Haden shadowing T.Y. Hilton and Moncrief running routes against Buster Skrine is exciting.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues

4. Stedman Bailey, Rams – Owned in 1 percent of Yahoo leagues
In the five games since Brian Quick’s season-ending injury, Stedman Bailey has played on 61.8 percent of the snaps. And over the last two weeks, he’s suddenly emerged as a go-to option while racking up 15 targets. That included a 5-100-0 demolition of the Raiders Sunday – all of which came in the first quarter. Bailey, who outproduced Tavon Austin at West Virginia, is a deep-league WR3 option for a Week 14 matchup against a Redskins secondary that loves to give up big plays.
Recommendation: Should be owned in deeper 12-team leagues

5. Robert Woods, Bills – Owned in 6 percent of Yahoo leagues
With Sammy Watkins regressing a bit and now fighting a hip injury, quick-footed Robert Woods is emerging. Showing a unique ability to make difficult catches, he’s at 13-189-1 over the last two weeks. He’s a WR4 play even in a very tough matchup this week at Denver thanks to the likelihood of garbage time. He’ll have some upside in that WR4 role should Watkins end up sitting.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues

Watch List: Davante Adams, Harry Douglas, John Brown, Andre Roberts, Cody Latimer – Adams was needed last week with Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner on Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. He won’t be needed against Atlanta. … Douglas is a no-brainer plug-n-play anytime Roddy White sits. However, the Falcons are optimistic on Roddy’s ankle. … I still like John Brown if Larry Fitzgerald (knee) sits, but Drew Stanton is a disaster. … Roberts is DeSean Jackson’s (leg, day to day) backup. … If I own Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders, I’d be sure to roster Latimer. The rookie has so much more handcuff upside than Andre Caldwell.

TIGHT ENDS
1. Jordan Reed, Redskins – Owned in 49 percent of Yahoo leagues
The oft-injured Jordan Reed is an example of why we stash exceptional, difference-making athletes – even through the tough times. He’s capable of doing things not many at the tight end position are, namely dominating 1-on-1 matchups in the middle of the field. We also know that Reed has an up arrow with Colt McCoy under center, as McCoy has a long history of peppering his tight end with the football. In two starts together this year, McCoy has targeted Reed 18 times. Coming off a 9-123-0 game while playing 64.6 percent of the snaps, Reed will be a strong play against the Rams Sunday at the razor-thin tight end position.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team leagues

2. Tim Wright, Patriots – Owned in 35 percent of Yahoo leagues
As predicted in this space last week, Tim Wright’s 61-snap, 2-TD outburst in Week 12 was a mirage. But Wright didn’t completely fade to black against the Packers, playing on 53.4 percent of the snaps and running 23 pass routes. Don’t use Wright against a Chargers team that dominates opposing tight ends, but do stash Wright for Weeks 15 (vs. MIA) and Week 16 (at NYJ). These are spots Bill Belichick projects to use more “spread” looks, meaning more chances for the WR-turned-TE Wright.
Recommendation: Should be stashed in deeper 12-team leagues for Weeks 15 and 16

3. Mychal Rivera, Raiders – Owned in 28 percent of Yahoo leagues
Mychal Rivera isn’t very good, but he’s 6.2 targets per game over the last month. That’s far more than we can say for most of the tight ends available. So even though Rivera hasn’t topped 40 yards or scored a touchdown since Week 10, he’s a reasonable TE2 dart throw against a 49ers team that isn’t as fierce at stopping the tight end as they were when they had Patrick Willis.
Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team leagues


DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Packers – Owned in 50 percent of Yahoo leagues
It’s rare I’ll want to start a D/ST in a game with an over/under all the way up at 56. But I really don’t like this spot for the Falcons, who are playing at Lambeau. It’s on Monday night, so the Packers should be super-focused and should not be letting down even though they’re coming off a monster win over the Patriots. It also projects to be very cold, which is bad news for notorious dome-quarterback Matt Ryan. Over the last two seasons, Ryan has a 26:7 TD-to-INT ratio at home vs. 21:30 on the road.

2. Vikings – Owned in 25 percent of Yahoo leagues
In Week 12, the Vikings gave up just 24 points to the Packers. In Week 13, they held the Panthers to 13 points. Now they get to face Geno Smith and the Jets at home, a spot that is incredibly easy to defend. As seen against the Dolphins Monday night, the Jets tried to win a game without using their quarterback. That’s pretty difficult to do. And if the Vikings can get a lead and make the Jets use their quarterback, mistakes will follow.

3. Saints – Owned in 6 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Saints should be able to smell it now. Although they’re 5-7, they are tied with the Falcons for the NFC South lead. The Falcons are going to lose at Lambeau next Monday night, which means the Saints can take control by beating up on the Panthers Sunday. This projects as a hostile environment kind of game at home, in a dome, with a Rob Ryan defense going after one of the league’s worst offensive lines. I like the Saints as a play more than the Giants or Titans this week for big-play potential.

4. Ravens – Owned in 54 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Ravens’ ownership percentage has been declining because they had a bye, then faced the Saints and then played the Chargers. In Week 14, they don’t have a great spot at Miami. But the Ravens are still worth a hold for a crucial Week 15 game at home against the Jags. Other Week 15 D/STs to stash if they’re available include the Chiefs (vs. OAK) and Rams (vs. ARZ).


KICKERS
1. Connor Barth, Broncos – Owned in 10 percent of Yahoo leagues
In Connor Barth’s first game as a Bronco, he went 5-of-5 on field goals. It was a bit fluky, as Peyton Manning surprisingly sputtered in the red-zone leading to all five attempts under 40 yards. However, Barth’s floor will always be high in one of the game’s premier offenses and now he gets a nice home spot in the Mile High air against Buffalo.

2. Shayne Graham, Saints – Owned in 35 percent of Yahoo leagues
Shayne Graham didn’t get any attempts at Pittsburgh in Week 13, meaning owners will be running for the hills. Jump on. Not only do attempts have a way of swinging back toward the mean, but Graham now gets a home game against Carolina with an over/under of 49. He’s 17-of-18 on the year.

3. Matt Prater, Lions – Owned in 25 percent of Yahoo leagues
Matt Prater would be higher on this list (and higher owned) if he hasn’t been so shaky since signing with the Lions. He’s just 14-of-18, but encouragingly is 7-of-8 over the last three weeks. Kicking at home against Tampa this week, Prater is a good bet for at least two more attempts.