Toyota Owners 400 fantasy preview

Special to Yahoo Sports
By Dan Beaver

In last week’s preview about Bristol Motor Speedway, it was noted how few streaks there were on that half-miler, which was the polar opposite of what one would expect on a short track. This week is a little more of what fantasy players have grown to expect on rhythm courses. In 2016, seven drivers swept the top 10 at Richmond International Raceway. Three more swept the top 15.

Richmond is a hybrid. It behaves as much like an unrestricted, intermediate speedway as a short track and that allows for consideration of a wide variety of drivers. Auto Club Speedway’s winner Kyle Larson will have a shot at the trophy. So will Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson, the victors on NASCAR’s two short tracks so far this season.

Richmond is also kind to first-time winners. Tony Stewart graced Victory Lane for the first time in his Cup career there in 1999. Kasey Kahne won in 2005. No one has earned an inaugural victory since, but Clint Bowyer got his second win in May, 2008. That means Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, and perhaps even Erik Jones should be on players’ radar screens.

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Jimmie Johnson: No. 44 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (Yahoo Group A)

The media kept saying that once Johnson won his first race of the season, more would closely follow. Fantasy experts might have been a little more cautious because the points he cost at the start of the season were just too much to overlook. Now that he has two wins, however, it is time to jump on the bandwagon. Johnson can win on any track. Even if he does not, maximum points can be earned with a pole and solid run. The No. 48 has a pair of third-place finishes in the past two Toyota Owners 400s and he won from the pole in fall 2007.

Brad Keselowski: No. 2 Penske Racing Ford (Yahoo Group A)

A mechanical failure last week at Bristol snapped a six-race streak of top-six finishes for Keselowski. He will enter Richmond with a sense of unfinished business and a bit of a chip on his shoulder. That is a combination that often works well for this fiery driver. Keselowski has one previous win on the three-quarter-mile track and it came from the pole in fall 2014. Last year, he was fourth in the Federated Auto Parts 400 and was one of the drivers who swept the top 15 with an 11th in the spring.

Kyle Larson: No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet (Yahoo Group B)

By his Richmond numbers alone, Larson would not be one of the top picks this week. He has only one top-10 to his credit and that came last fall. He entered the Federated 400 with a near-perfect string of top-15s, however, and that consistency made him a driver to watch. Larson qualified second and everyone thought he would fall back through the pack. He didn’t; in fact, he finished second. Since then, he has replicated that result many times, but it is his victory at Auto Club that truly recommends him.

Chase Elliott: No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (Yahoo Group B)

With Dale Earnhardt Jr. retiring at the end of 2017, focus shifts to the remaining drivers in this organization. There are plenty of resources at HMS, but speed is built on the tiniest of details and it never hurts to get just a little more attention. Elliott has been on the cusp of winning for quite some while. When he does, many more are likely to follow in close succession. Like fellow Hendrick mates Johnson and Jeff Gordon, Elliott is going to be a well-rounded driver with wins on every track type. It would be fitting if his first victory came on the hybridized Richmond.

Clint Bowyer: No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford (Yahoo Group B)

At the start of the year, it seemed improbable that Bowyer would be challenging for a win eight weeks into the season. He was not quite able to get around Johnson in the final laps of the Food City 500, but he was one of the best values with his second-place finish. Winning is built on a myriad of factors. Confidence is one of these and it cannot be ignored. Now that Bowyer has come within one spot of Victory Lane, he can taste the champagne that is waiting for him later in the season.

Kasey Kahne: No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (Yahoo Group B)

Hendrick Motorsports is well represented in this week’s preview. That is because this is a track that has been kind to them in the past. Kahne struggled almost everywhere in 2016, but this was a track on which he found the handle. Kevin Harvick was the only driver to sweep the top five with a pair of fifths, but Kahne actually had the same average finish. He was one spot ahead in fourth in the spring and one spot behind in sixth in the fall. Kahne is not going to be immensely popular this week and that makes him a good differentiator.

Erik Jones: No. 77 Furniture Row Toyota (Yahoo Group C)

Rookies are not supposed to run well at Bristol, but Jones almost disproved that truism. He was among the top 10 in both segments on that bullring and retained a position in the top 10 well into the second half of the Food City 500. Crash damage eventually sent him a lap down, but he still almost cracked the top 15. Richmond is much better suited to his driving style. Some of his best results have come on unrestricted, intermediate speedways. He is not too far removed from his short track roots and that combination is going to favor him this week.

Daniel Suarez: No. 19 Roush-Fenway Racing Ford (Yahoo Group C)

Suarez is a patient driver who meticulously improves his performance during a race weekend. He reaches his pinnacle in the middle of races, however, because rookies often have difficulty closing the deal. That might be part of the reason Richmond is kinder to first year drivers than most of its counterparts. The race length of 400 laps keeps these enthusiastic drivers fresh and that often results in improved performance. Suarez, Jones, or Ty Dillon each have a shot at winning if — and this is a big if — everything goes right.

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