Advertisement

Three-Point Stance: Is Doug Martin a smart or silly investment?

Brad Evans
It seems many drafters have much apathy toward Doug Martin. (Getty)
It seems many drafters have much apathy toward Doug Martin. (Getty)

Though Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson sank into Davey Jones’ locker, Jameis Winston and a resurgent Doug Martin were hidden gems last season on Treasure Island. In this edition of ‘The Stance,’ Brad Evans and Brandon Funston draw their scabbards and swashbuckle through pressing questions tied to Tampa.

[Yahoo Fantasy Football is open for the 2016 season. Sign up now!]

The Muscle Hamster, Doug Martin, spun the wheel last season, bouncing back after an unmemorable 2014. Despite the rebound, many have expressed hesitancy about another top-15 campaign. Will the rusher continue to BOOM or be closer to a BUST at his current 32.3 (RB12) ADP?

Brandon – BOOM. I have him ranked right around the top 30, so I guess I’m riding the Hamster wheel. The fly in the ointment could be that rumors of Charles Sims seeing more carries come to fruition. But I doubt there’ll be much of an impact in that regard. After all, teams tend to try and justify the money they pay their players, and Martin just signed a five-year contract worth nearly $36 million.

Martin earned his contract by getting himself in great shape last season, and the results showed. Also in much better shape than when Martin was going through his ’13-’14 funk is the Bucs’ offensive line, one of the best all-around units in the league last season despite starting two rookies. This a group that should get even better, and that bodes well for Martin’s future success.

Brad – BOOM. It seems Martin is the pretty, sheepish girl standing in the corner everyone chooses to ignore, but shouldn’t. Few in the fantasy community have discussed his 2016 prospects at length. Maybe the lack of conversation stems from continued confidence, but the prevailing sentiment is likely indifference. Most, particularly those who continue to beat the drum for Charles Sims, aren’t excited to invest in his services, which is odd.

Thinner and lighter on his feet last season, Martin impressed whether gauging primary or secondary stats. On just over 20 touches per game, he neared 1,700 combined yards, averaged 4.9 yards per carry and ranked No. 2 in total evaded tackles. Dirk Koetter’s insistence the offense won’t deviate much from last year’s balanced attack only assures another hefty workload. If Winston doesn’t poach another six times, it’s possible Dougie Fresh matches his yardage total and tacks on an additional 3-4 scores from last year (7). That happens and he’s a top-10 lock.

Though a towering specimen and equipped with a pair of pogo sticks, Mike Evans inexplicably managed just three touchdowns in 2015. OVER or UNDER 9.5 end-zone spikes for the wide receiver this year?

Brandon – OVER. It would be hard for Evans to reproduce the red zone ineptitude of last season. There’s simply no definitive way to explain how the seemingly perfect red zone weapon (size, leaping ability, etc) could finish with just two touchdowns on 17 red zone targets – that was the lowest total by any receiver with at least 16 red zone looks. Evans also finished 12th in total WR targets but just 59th in WR touchdowns (3). I think we can write off last year as a combination of bad luck and inexperience at QB (rookie Jameis Winston). With a year under Winston’s belt (and the bonding time with Evans that comes with that), I think Evans has a good shot to repeat his rookie TD total (12).

Brad – OVER. There was no rhyme or reason for Evans’ deflated TD total other than a classic sophomore slump. Though his hands defy him at times, he has everything you want in a WR1 – height, high-point ability, long-range speed. He has struggled with drops in training camp, but likely to entice 30-35 percent of Tampa’s targets, many coming in the red zone, it’s easy to assume a 10-12 TD campaign. Drafter aggressiveness toward the receiver (17.9 ADP, WR10) is completely warranted.

[Sign up to play for free | Mock Draft now | Rankings | Draft Kit | Latest news]

Thanks in large part to six rushing touchdowns, everyone’s favorite crab legs connoisseur Jameis Winston knocked at the door of the QB1 class in 12-team leagues. BELIEVE or MAKE BELIEVE: The second-year passer takes the next step, advances in several offensive categories and finishes inside the position’s top-12.

Brandon – MAKE BELIEVE. Ok, by the strict guidelines of this question, I have Winston as a make believe, but only by the slimmest of margins – he’s my No. 13 ranked QB. With Newton-esque size and goal-line prowess, I don’t expect he’ll finish with anything less than four TD rushes, he had six as a rookie. And I saw enough of him last season to know that the necessary tools for growth are present. He’s shed a bunch of weight this season in addition to burning the midnight oil in the film room. With his arm talent and work ethic, I don’t see any reason why he can’t repeat his fantasy tally from Year 1, when he finished 13th in Yahoo! default scoring at the QB position.

Brad – BELIEVE. Winston is undeniably one of my favorite late-round QB targets. He’s an extremely talented passer with opportunistic wheels who will have more freedom at the line in Year 2. His 7.6 yards per attempt (No. 9 among QBs), 4.7 air yards per attempt (No. 5) and 0.49 fantasy points per dropback (No. 11) were mighty fine last year. With a pair of skyscrapers to chuck the rock to and questionable defense behind him, statistical growth is on the agenda. It’s entirely plausible he outperforms the likes of Eli Manning, Derek Carr and Blake Bortles, passers going several picks ahead of him in average drafts.

Bull rush Brad @YahooNoise and Brandon @1befun on Twitter.