Three-Point Stance: Is Devonta Freeman poised for a fantasy free fall?

Under Kyle Shanahan the Falcons’ offense notched over 620 pass attempts, but still closed out the year among the bottom fifteen squads in terms of points. Despite the down year, Atlanta produced one of fantasy’s newest stars. Devonta Freeman emerged as the virtual game’s biggest stud at RB, scoring 14 total TDs. In this edition of ‘The Stance,’ Brad Evans and Liz Loza examine Freeman’s staying power and the rest of Hotlanta’s FF potential.

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Tevin Coleman opened 2015 with twice as many carries (20) as Devonta Freeman (10). A slew of injuries slowed the former Hoosier, however, and helped pave the way for Freeman’s breakout season. Chatter out of Atlanta suggests the coaching staff is still enamored with their third-round pick from a year ago, and motivated to get him involved. On a scale of 1-10 (with 1 being a RHOA level of frenzy and 10 being more chill than CeeLo Green’s cat) how much should Freeman owners fear Coleman?

Liz – FOUR. It’s no secret that Coleman’s big-play ability made Kyle Shanahan giddy heading into last year’s NFL draft. And of course this regime wants the IU product to succeed… if for no other reason than their egos. But the sophomore back has some work to do. His pass-catching ability is nowhere near Freeman’s and he lost three fumbles last year. Furthermore, he has an upright running style that invites injury. The question isn’t whether he’ll get on the field… it’s whether he’ll stay on the field.

Freeman demonstrated an elite level of patience and vision last year. Yes, he faded as the year progressed. And no, he’s not built to be a workhorse. But right now he is the more developed and trustworthy talent in Atlanta’s backfield. I foresee Coleman averaging 6-8 totes and 1-2 receptions per contest. At that rate, Freeman should stay fresher longer and still provide fantasy owners with low-end RB1 numbers.

Brad – THREE. The reigning fantasy RB1 could soon turn into a statistical pauper of sorts. Though stupendous at times last year, his horrific second half was a strong indication he slammed into a wall physically. From Week 9 on, he averaged a paltry 3.1 yards per carry and ranked No. 57 and No. 41, respectively, in yards after contact and tackles avoided per attempt. If he’s again entrusted with 22 touches per game, Drake’s Dad will live to see his album sell 10 copies. His workload is about to decrease dramatically. At his 19.8 (RB7) ADP, you’re sacrificing an appendage.

Shanny remains enamored with Coleman. The Indiana product is an upright runner with only average hands, but he’s an assertive one-cut back blessed with 4.3 40-yard wheels. In other words, he’s an ideal zone-blocking rusher who also excels in gap plays. If he can make strides as a passer this preseason, 10-12 touches per game are a likely outcome. That happens and a maddening ‘hot hand’ situation could develop.

In the late tenth round of 12-team exercise, after pick No. 120 overall… is it SMART or SILLY to grab Mohamed Sanu, expecting WR3 fantasy production?

Liz – SMART. Naysayers like to cite Sanu’s 15 drops in 2014. But what they forget is how well he performed while A.J. Green and Marvin Jones were banged up, notching two 100+ yard performances and 3 TDs between Weeks 5 and 9 of that same season. Over those five contests Sanu was the seventh best overall wideout in fantasy, averaging 13.6 FF points per contest.

Atlanta, however, must have taken note. The Falcons are paying him $32.5 over the next five years ($14 million guaranteed). That’s more than JAG money. And let’s not forget, Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson combined for 111 targets in 2015. Lining up opposite one of the league’s most dynamic receivers, Sanu will produce.

Fearless Forecast: 72-761-6

Brad – SILLY. I’m not going to deny Sanu’s opportunity is ripe. For the reasons Loza discussed above, he should attract favorable targets and coverage working alongside Julio Jones. Throw in Atlanta’s presumably forgiving defense and he could woo some 105-115 looks. But expecting WR3 production is an exercise in futility.

In talent terms, Sanu is merely a ‘meh’ receiver. He performed occasionally well when presented with red-zone opportunities, but his No. 74 contested catch rate (in 2015), history of drops and below average downfield efficiency all suggest the exorbitant deal he signed was borderline lunacy.

Fearless Forecast: 58-680-5 (Think Jermaine Kearse of 2015)

Matty Ice turned to slush in 2015, throwing for the fewest TDs (21) since his rookie campaign back in 2008 (16). OVER/UNDER 27.5 passing TDs for this bounce-back candidate.

Liz – OVER. We all know the deal with Ryan… low ceiling/high floor. Except last year… when that floor fell out. The Boston College grad struggled mightily in Kyle Shanahan’s system. Additionally, his No. 2 receiver – whom he’d spent eight years developing a rapport with – fell off a cliff in Week 2. Ryan’s inability to adapt quickly is certainly a red flag, but he’s still a cerebral QB who has the privilege of lobbing the ball at Julio Jones.

I have faith that things will click for Ryan in 2016. He’s had a year to adjust to the new offense, an entire preseason to establish chemistry with Sanu, and an upgrade in protection with the addition of center Alex Mack to the offensive line. The defense is still a work in progress, which means Ryan will continue to put the ball in the air. There’s no reason to believe the Falcons’ signal caller can’t bounce back to 2014 form, passing for over 4,600 yards and scoring 28 TDs.

Brad – UNDER. Julio’s magnificence isn’t debatable and Freeman is a superb receiving back who thrives in space, but the rest of Ryan’s arsenal, as stated above, doesn’t exactly move the meter. Even the Falcons’ leaky defense and improved offensive line won’t vault him past the proposed number. Unless vintage Roddy White, Andre Rison and Tony Gonzalez walk through that door and ink deals tomorrow, he will continue to underachieve. When the dust settles in January, his final line will read closer to 2013 (4,515 yards, 26 TDs) than 2012 (4,719, 32).

Bull rush Brad @YahooNoise and Liz @LizLoza_FF on Twitter.