Tennessee’s Playoff Hopes Rest on Run Game
Another Texans loss, another happy day for Titans fans. With Houston’s 21-13 defeat to the Packers, Tennessee is now tied for first in the AFC South. Who saw that coming? The Texans now face the Colts, Jaguars, and Bengals before ending the season at Nissan Stadium. It’s an easy slate of games, but not when you have Brock Osweiler (13 interceptions, tied for most in the league) at quarterback. Meanwhile, the Colts have the Jets, Vikings, and Raiders to contend with in their final weeks. Suddenly, this is a very winnable division. Which is why Tennessee’s playoff hopes rest on run game.
Looking Ahead
Coming off a much-needed bye this week, Tennessee will host the Broncos before traveling to Kansas City, then Jacksonville, then back home to take on the Texans. In order to reach the postseason, Mariota and Co. must do their best to win out. Luckily for the Titans, they face a string of poor rushing defenses. Denver (27th), Kansas City (29th), Jacksonville (24th), and Houston (19th) all rank in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed per game.
Super Bowl Pedigree
For years, the pundits of the world have claimed that a running game wins championships. They might be onto something. The 2013 Seahawks (4th in the NFL in rushing yards) used the workhorse nature of Marshawn Lynch with the mobility of Russell Wilson to capture Seattle’s first ever Lombardi Trophy. In addition, their defense completely dismantled Peyton Manning’s high-powered passing attack. The Ravens rode Ray Rice (306 yards and 2 touchdowns in the postseason) to win the Super Bowl in 2012.
After taking some notes from their loss to Seattle, the Denver Broncos returned to the Super Bowl in 2015, largely due to their backfield. Led by the split of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, here’s a look at Denver’s rushing totals in the final weeks of the regular season:
Week 13: 175 yards, Week 14: 142 yards, Week 15: 171 yards, Week 16: 155 yards, Week 17: 111 yards
And then the playoffs:
Divisional: 144 yards, Conference: 152 yards, Super Bowl: 118 yards
Anderson tallied 90 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl 50 to help his Broncos beat down the Panthers (who ranked 2nd in rushing yards that year).
Tennessee’s Own Playoff History
The last time the Titans reached the postseason was 2008. The combination of then-rookie Chris Johnson (1,228 yards) and LenDale White (15 rushing touchdowns) carried an otherwise ordinary offense to a 13-3 record:
Week 13: 292 yards, Week 14: 235 yards, Week 15: 100 yards, Week 16: 117 yards, Week 17: 83 yards, Divisional: 116 yards
Before then, Tennessee leaned on Eddie George and a mobile Steve McNair to regularly contend in the postseason. In their fabled 1999 season, George rushed for 449 yards and 3 touchdowns in the playoffs.
What it Means Now
The formula is certainly in place for winning games in December and January. Throughout the annals of football history, teams have used a successful ground game to tire out defenses, control time of possession, and take pressure off their quarterbacks in hopes of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. And like the Broncos and Panthers last year, the Titans are fortunate enough to feature a dynamic rushing attack.
DeMarco Murray’s play has become stagnant as of late. Over the past four weeks, he’s averaging around 72 yards per game (compared to 95 yards per game in the first eight weeks). And he’s been less dependable in late-game situations. Despite the stellar play of Marcus Mariota and the emergence of Derrick Henry (8 rushes for 60 yards and a touchdown last week), Mike Mularkey seems determined to put games on Murray’s shoulders. His failed fourth-down conversion sealed a Colts victory in Week 10. Last week, his drop in production almost handed the game to Chicago.
Now I’ve been saying it for weeks, but Henry needs more of a role in this offense. The former Alabama bruiser is built for slugging out yards and burning the clock. I’m not convinced Murray is anymore. And like we’ve seen with so many other teams (Ravens, Seahawks, Titans of old), a physical running back between the tackles can be a godsend.
Mularkey has exceeded expectations this year. But he’ll need the combined efforts of Murray, Henry, and Mariota in the backfield to finish in contention. With a lead in the division and favorable upcoming matchups, it’s so doable.
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