Matchups: Chiefs at Packers
Monday Night Football
Kansas City @ Green Bay
In what's projected as the lowest scoring week of the NFL season so far, Chiefs-Packers quietly has Week 3's biggest Vegas total at 49 points. Don't be shy about targeting this game in DFS and season-long lineup decisions. ... Reeling in the backend minus top CB Sean Smith (suspension), Kansas City yielded a combined 5:2 TD-to-INT ratio and 590 yards to Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, and widely-left-for-dead Peyton Manning in the first two weeks. Particularly with Eddie Lacy (ankle) banged up, this could be a sneaky blowup spot for Aaron Rodgers, who's yet to really put his foot on the gas for a full game so far this year. Rodgers has an incredible 38:0 TD-to-INT ratio over his last 14 home games. ... There's a school of thought inside the fantasy community that "handcuffing" is a waste of roster spots. I'm in the camp that believes handcuffing is the way to go on a certain handful of running backs who have quality and clear-cut backups. Lacy is one of them. Lacy is shaping up as a game-time decision after leaving last week's win over the Seahawks on a cart, and not returning. If Lacy can't go, James Starks will be a borderline RB1 in a game where Green Bay is favored by 6.5 points at home. Operating as an every-down back off the bench against Seattle, Starks logged 24 touches and 106 total yards. The Packers aren't afraid to feed Starks voluminously on the ground and sprinkle him into the passing game.
Rodgers' target distribution in Weeks 1-2: Randall Cobb 16; Davante Adams 13; James Jones and Richard Rodgers 7; Starks and Ty Montgomery 4; Lacy 3. ... After hitting pay dirt in Week 1 and dropping an 8-116 number on Seattle in Week 2, Cobb enters Week 3 as the overall WR18 in PPR leagues. I think he's a good bet to finish top ten. On Monday night, expect Cobb to mainly do battle against up-and-down second-year Chiefs CB Phillip Gaines, who plays right corner in Kansas City's base defense and covers the slot in sub-packages. ... Although Jones has been lightly targeted, he's playing 95% of the offensive snaps and has three touchdowns through two games. Jones now has 21 TDs over his last 25 games with Aaron Rodgers. Jones has the best Week 3 matchup in Green Bay's receiver corps. Jones will run most of his routes at Chiefs RCB Jamell Fleming, the primary burn victim of DeAndre Hopkins (9-98-2) in Week 1 and Emmanuel Sanders (8-87-2) in Week 2. ... Adams gets the toughest draw on paper against Chiefs rookie LCB Marcus Peters -- an early favorite for DROY honors -- though the Packers' receivers move around enough that Adams will also get chances against Fleming and Gaines. Adams is capable of playing all three receiver positions. I like Jones a bit better in this particular game, but would still view Adams as no worse than a WR3 with WR2 upside. ... Richard Rodgers logged a 65% snap rate to Andrew Quarless' 28% in last week's win over the Seahawks. Rodgers is clearly the Packers' No. 1 tight end, but in fantasy he's a low-volume, touchdown-dependent commodity. Rodgers will help you if he finds the end zone against Kansas City, and hurt you if he doesn't.
Whereas Green Bay has a Week 3 Vegas team total of nearly 28 points, Kansas City's total is just over 21. I do believe this is a game where the over bet on the Chiefs would be the sharpest play. ... The Packers have played Jekyll & Hyde early-season run defense, getting gashed by Bears RBs for a combined 29-158-1 on Opening Day, before holding Marshawn Lynch to 15-41-0 last Sunday night. Green Bay did give up 10-78 to Russell Wilson on the ground, and in the first two weeks has lost core run defenders ILB Sam Barrington (foot) and DE Josh Boyd (ankle) to injured reserve. Along with Lynch, Le'Veon Bell, and Adrian Peterson, I like Jamaal Charles as a top-four fantasy running back start in Week 3. ... Wilson and Jay Cutler's (4-31) Weeks 1 and 2 rushing lines against the Packers may be noteworthy for willing scrambler Alex Smith, who I like as a two-quarterback-league starter on Monday night. I'd probably still balk at classifying Smith as a legitimate QB1 against a Green Bay defense that held Cutler and Wilson to a combined 37-of-66 passing (56.1%) for 431 yards (6.53 YPA) three touchdowns, and two interceptions . Smith is best viewed as a high-floor, low-ceiling fantasy quarterback option week in and week out.
Smith's target distribution through two games: Jeremy Maclin 16; Charles 13; Travis Kelce 11; De'Anthony Thomas 6; Albert Wilson 4; James O'Shaughnessy 3; Knile Davis 2. ... It's absolutely criminal that Kelce is averaging 5.5 targets per game. He's currently 14th among tight ends in targets, but first in catch rate (91%), second in yards (164), third in touchdowns (2), and second in yards after catch (84), per PFF's charts. Kelce is an every-week fantasy starter regardless, but his usage is frustrating even as he's producing at a top-four TE1 clip. ... Hurt by game flow in Week 1 and Denver's elite corners in Week 2, Maclin has played better than his early-season box-score lines (5-52-0, 4-57-0) suggest. I still like Maclin as a borderline WR2 play against a Packers defense that permitted 5-78 to injured Bears No. 1 receiver Alshon Jeffery on Opening Day, and 7-92-1 to Seahawks No. 1 Doug Baldwin last Sunday night. ... Thomas, O'Shaughnessy, and Wilson are all role players fighting for weekly scraps behind Charles, Maclin, and Kelce.
DFS Players: Chiefs at Packers is the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week. JMToWin and LeoTPP break down everything you need to know to attack this game in your Daily Fantasy Leagues.
Score Prediction: Packers 27, Chiefs 23
