R.I.P.: 2014 Atlanta Braves' season
The Braves have not won a postseason series since the 2001 NLDS and they won't even get a chance to end that streak this season -- the team was eliminated from postseason contention on Sunday. They responded by firing general manager Frank Wren on Monday. Let's eulogize their season.
What went right
Freddie Freeman, Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel and Julio Teheran again turned in brilliant seasons. Evan Gattis hit 22 home runs with a 129 OPS+, showing the team they made the right decision by installing him as the everyday catcher and letting Brian McCann walk as a free agent. Alex Wood emerged as the club's second best starter behind Teheran. Jason Heyward had a good (but not great) year and Tommy La Stella showed that he is, at worst, a nice and cheap everyday second base option going forward.
What went wrong
For starters, the Braves simply can not score. They average only 3.57 runs per game, second worst in baseball ahead of only the Padres (3.30). That's with Freeman, Upton and Gattis producing like borderline MVP candidates. Atlanta has scored three or fewer runs in 89 of 155 games, or 57 percent. That's no way to compete.
The Braves simply had too many black holes in the lineup. Andrelton Simmons went from 17 home runs and a 90 OPS+ last year to seven home runs and a 75 OPS+ this year. Chris Johnson hit .321 with a 124 OPS+ last season. This season? He hit .264 with an 83 OPS+. B.J. Upton (71 OPS+) and Dan Uggla (34 OPS+) remain colossal big contract busts, though at least they cut their losses and released Uggla at midseason. Furthermore, the Braves had one of the least productive benches in the league.
The pitching problems came via injury back in spring training. Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy blew out their elbows on back-to-back days (literally) and needed with their second career Tommy John surgeries. The pushed to team to increase payroll and sign Ervin Santana, who pitched well but cost the club its first round pick. Mike Minor missed time with shoulder troubles and pitched to a 4.77 ERA when he was healthy.
MVP: There are a few good choices even though the club bowed out of the postseason race with a week to go in the regular season. I'll go with Freeman over (Justin) Upton, Gattis and Heyward, not only because he led the team with a 138 OPS+, but also because he was their most consistent hitter day in and day out.
LVP: (B.J.) Upton and Uggla are co-LVPs. They combined for -1.9 WAR in 711 plate appearances while soaking up nearly one-fourth of the team's payroll. Johnson (-1.5 WAR!) gets off easy.
Free agents to be: RHP Ervin Santana, RHP Gavin Floyd, UTIL Ryan Doumit, UTIL Emilio Bonifacio, C Gerald Laird and RHP Aaron Harang
Gameplan heading into the offseason
First and foremost, the Braves need to find a new GM to replace Wren. Once that happens, they'll have to figure out the coaching staff situation. I imagine finding someone who can get (B.J.) Upton back on track is a top priority. They still owe him nearly $50 million over the next three years. Yikes.
The Braves are not a big payroll team. They opened this season with a $112 million payroll and it would have been quite a bit less if not for the injury-necessitated Santana signing. Atlanta has hovered right around the $90 million to $95 million payroll range since the 2000 season and there are no indications that will change in 2015.
Both Heyward and (Justin) Upton will be free agents after next season and it's hard to see the Braves being able to afford both long-term. Keeping just one might be a tough. So, does the new GM go for it and make one last push with both guys next season? Or does he trade one to fill other needs and sign the other long-term? That decision will dictate their offseason.
Atlanta already has $80 million on the books for 2015 -- counting what they owe Uggla -- and that's only for eight players. Medlen and Minor will get decent arbitration raises as well. Money is going to be tight without a payroll-clearing trade or a budget increase. The team won't move into their new ballpark until 2017, so the revenue bump isn't there yet.
Hiring a new GM, settling on a coaching staff, and figuring out what to do with Heyward and Upton are at the top of the Braves' offseason to-do list. Once they sort that stuff out, they can move forward and deal with other roster issues. Either way, it seems unlikely they will be in the mix for top free agents.
Ridiculously premature prediction for 2015
Despite the down year, the Braves do have a really strong core. Freeman, Gattis, Upton and Heyward are half of a very good lineup and Teheran fronts a strong rotation along with Wood and a hopefully healthy Minor. Kimbrel makes it an eight-inning game. Even if they trade one of Upton or Heyward for salary relief, Atlanta is still good enough to contend in the NL East and push for a wild-card spot in 2015.
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