Preseason Notebook
Preseason Notebook
Another new NHL campaign is upon us and before the first puck is dropped, the first goal is scored and the first ever regular season #dryscrape occurs, I thought I should share the notes I’ve been making throughout the exhibition season. My goal with this column is not only to make prognostications that I think fantasy players can benefit from, but also to explain my reasoning so that you know there’s actually a method to my madness. I wrote a similar column during the first week of last season and while I won’t pretend to have hit the mark with all of my predictions (you have disappointed me, Mikhail Grabovski) I’m proud to have made the following proclamation about Daniel and Henrik Sedin:
“I don't expect John Tortorella to suddenly use the twins in a checking role, but even a slight reduction in their offensive zone usage could lead to a noticeable drop in scoring rates so I'm trying to stay away from them unless the value is exceptional.”
It turns out the Swedish Twins saw their rate of Offensive Zone Starts dip last year to levels they had not experienced since the 2008-09 season (hat tip @war_on_ice), which helps to explain their sudden decline. It’s yet to be determined how new bench boss Willie Desjardins will deploy his top offensive stars, but you can bet it’s something I’ll be paying close attention to as the season begins.
In any event, I’ll get some of these predictions correct, I’ll definitely get a number of them wrong, but my record will be public and I intend to own my projections, for better or worse. Now let’s take a peek inside my notebook.
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The following players are those that I’ve been trying to add to my portfolio in drafts this season.
James Neal - Let me be clear: I don’t expect Neal to produce numbers in Nashville like those he posted with the Penguins for the past few seasons, but I think the degree to which drafters have been avoiding him is extreme. The replacement of Barry Trotz behind the bench with Peter Laviolette means these will definitely not be your father’s Predators. A more wide open, offensive game plan will be installed and Neal, who qualifies at both wing positions in Yahoo leagues, figures to rank among the NHL leaders in shots on goal and remain a premier power play asset and a decent contributor in penalty minutes. The fact that he’ll play alongside noted playmaker Mike Ribeiro certainly won’t hurt his cause either. As a late third or early fourth round selection, I love the value he offers.
Cam Atkinson – A lot has been made of the fact Columbus can now boast more depth among its group of forwards than it ever has before and while I agree, I’m also of the opinion that Ryan Johansen is the only one among them that has can truly be thought of as possessing elite offensive talent. A group consisting of Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno, Brandon Dubinsky and Nathan Horton is one that won’t often get outworked, but also one that lacks the scoring ability Atkinson can offer. It should be noted that among Blue Jackets, only Johansen directed more shots on goal than Atkinson’s 216 last season and this was in spite of him placing eighth among Columbus forwards in terms of ice time at 15:47 per contest. An uptick in playing time and a commensurate increase in production should be in store this season.
Antoine Vermette – Vermette appears set to score the quietest 55 points in the NHL this season after the Coyotes saw two of their top four scorers depart when Mike Ribeiro and Radim Vrbata found new homes during the offseason. Former Oiler Sam Gagner has joined the fold and will be tried on the wing, but the durable Vermette is slated to center Arizona’s top line and garner a ton of power play time. The price tag on him in drafts is a very reasonable one and it’s an added bonus that the former Senator and Blue Jacket has not missed a regular season game since the 2008-09 campaign.
Florida Panthers – I’m not actually endorsing the entire Panthers roster, but there are a number of offensive players on this team I think will offer great value for drafters given where they’re currently being chosen. My optimism stems mainly from the fact that things simply can’t go as wrong in South Florida as they did last season and regression will carry this roster upwards towards the mean. Consider where the Panthers ranked in a number of offensive metrics last season:
Goals per game – 29th
Power play efficiency – 30th
Team shooting percentage – 27th
These figures hardly tell the entire tale of futility however, as Florida’s league-worst power play scored on only 10.0 percent of its opportunities, which is the poorest scoring rate since the Lightning converted just 9.4 percent of their chances in 1997-98. In fact, outside of last year’s Panthers no team has posted a power play rate below 13.0 percent since the 2008-09 Blue Jackets (12.7).
So why am I bullish on the Panthers, you ask? To start, the duo of Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau can reasonably be expected to take a step forward and improve on last year’s production. Both are world-class talents and a full season from each of them will go a long way to improving Florida’s offensive output. The team also boasts young up-and-comers in Nick Bjugstad, who led the club despite amassing just 38 points last season, and Brandon Pirri, who notched 14 points in 21 contests after he was acquired from the Blackhawks in a midseason deal. Even if the team doesn’t crack the top 20 in league scoring, the offense was so anemic last season that it almost can’t help but be better. In addition to Barkov and Huberdeau, the player I’m targeting most is power play quarterback Brian Campbell, who managed 37 points last season despite the train wreck that was the power play.
Power forwards – The species of NHL player whose main function was to engage in fisticuffs and act as on-ice vigilante has been endangered for some time, but this breed of NHLer truly seems to be nearing extinction this season as teams relieve themselves of one-dimensional “enforcers” en masse. The upshot of this development is that players who manage to rack up time in the sin bin while also contributing offensively will become ever more valuable in fantasy leagues that reward PIM. It only stands to reason that as the Colton Orrs and Frazer McLarens of the world begin to find themselves seeking employment, players like Scott Hartnell and Milan Lucic look even more appealing by comparison due to a league-wide drop in PIM. Other players who fit this description are Brandon Prust, Derek Dorsett and Chris Neil, however in my deeper formats I’ll be targeting stealth names such as Patrick Maroon and Ryan Garbutt.
Braden Holtby –The reason I’m so excited about Holtby’s prospects this season is a jump-off from the reason for my James Neal optimism – the Barry Trotz effect. The former Nashville coach runs a notoriously tight defensive system and its one that that has historically benefitted the goaltenders on his team. The success of the Music City Goalie FactoryTM developed by the Predators over the last decade speaks for itself so it’s not too much of a leap to think that a young goalie who posted save percentages of .920 in 2012-13 and .915 last season under a different regime could join the fantasy elite under Trotz. That Holtby is being drafted, on average, as the 19th goaltender in Yahoo drafts this fall is downright criminal.
Let’s now turn our attention to a few players I don’t believe warrant the lofty draft status they’re currently earning.
Jarome Iginla – How quickly we forget how little we expected from Iginla entering last season after he appeared to have lost a step (or six) in his last days as a member of the Flames. There’s no doubt the future Hall of Famer merits praise for the strong season he posted with the Bruins in 2013-14, but it would be foolish to expect a repeat in Colorado this year. On a team loaded with young talent, there’s no way that Iggy can be assigned a role similar to that which he garnered in Boston and as a result, his production will dip. The fact that he’s being drafted as an eighth-rounder in Yahoo formats means the general public doesn’t share my opinion.
Paul Stastny – The newest member of the Blues averaged nearly 19 minutes of ice time per game in Colorado last season, but he joins an already-loaded St. Louis lineup with no obvious candidates for a reduction in playing time. Vladimir Sobotka and his 16:44 per game may have left the building, but finding room for Stastny and Finnish import Jori Lehtera will be challenging enough for Ken Hitchcock without even accounting for a deserved increase for 22-year-old dynamo Vladimir Tarasenko. In addition to his undetermined role, there’s the matter of Stastny’s unsustainable shooting percentage. A career 12.8 percent shooter, he found the back of the net on a career-best 16.7 percent of his attempts last year, allowing him to record 25 goals when he would have otherwise tallied just 19 times had he maintained his career norms. Consider me bearish.
Jimmy Howard – One might think this projection has come a year too late given the struggles experienced by Howard last season, but the Detroit netminder’s price tag in drafts this year has remained surprisingly high. I’ll admit the emergence of Detroit’s young forwards Gustav Nyquist, Riley Sheahan and Tomas Tatar last season provide hope for a bright future in the Motor City, but this development became necessary after the decline of aging veterans Pavel Datsyuk and Johan Franzen. In addition, the Wings are supermodel thin on the back end beyond defensive stalwart Niklas Kronwall. On average, the Red Wings number one keeper is being selected as the 14th goaltender in Yahoo leagues, ahead of better options Cory Schneider, Jaroslav Halak and my personal favorite Braden Holtby. At that price, I certainly won’t end up with him on any of my rosters.
Bargain Bin Finds
I’ll wrap up my introductory piece for the new season by identifying players being drafted in fewer than 20 percent of Yahoo leagues that I believe warrant greater consideration.
Nick Leddy – 9 percent
Eric Gelinas – 5 percent
Aleksander Barkov – 2 percent
Mark Scheifele – 2 percent
Filip Forsberg – 2 percent
Good luck to everyone drafting this week and all the best for the coming season.
