The Premier League title race is on, but does Tottenham have a real shot to catch Chelsea?
And so we have a title race. Finally.
It’s been months — over four, to be exact — since the gap at the top of the Premier League has been this tight. But after Marcus Rashford’s sprint in behind the Chelsea defense, after Ander Herrera’s brilliantly dogged 90 minutes, and after Manchester United’s 2-0 win over the league leaders on Sunday, here we are. Four points separate Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur. Six games remain. The Premier League season that was pronounced over is most certainly not.
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To be clear, though, we have a title race not because the presumed champions have fallen off a cliff. We have a title race because their challengers can’t stop winning, and because every Chelsea slip-up has been taken advantage of. Spurs have now won seven in a row and continue to take care of business against the bottom of the league. They are a nearly impeccable 13-0-1 against non-top-seven foes since Harry Kane returned from an ankle injury in November. They’ve lost just once in the league over the past four months.
So Tottenham is the reason this article is being written. Tottenham is the reason this question is being asked. Spurs’ 4-0 dispatching of Bournemouth on Saturday made it a pressing one. Their form is also the main reason the answer to the question — Can Tottenham really do this? — is “yes … maybe.”
Tottenham is certainly good enough to complete the comeback
This is the best Tottenham team of the Premier League era, and arguably the best Tottenham team ever. With one more win, it will eclipse the club record for points in a 38-game season. Spurs have scored 68 goals and conceded just 22. Their expected goal differential is better than Chelsea’s.
After some early-season stumbles — namely five draws in their first 10 games, three of them with Kane sidelined — Spurs have become what Mauricio Pochettino always envisioned. The center back pairing of Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld is the best in England. Those two get excellent protection from either Victor Wanyama or Eric Dier. Kyle Walker and Danny Rose are outstanding two-way fullbacks. Spurs defend from both the back and the front, where the combativeness of players such as Dele Alli leads a ferocious press. They stifle inferior opponents and have the athleticism and strength to win individual duels against the league’s best.
The attack is also clicking on all cylinders. Christian Eriksen has cemented himself as one of the Premier League’s top creators. Kane trails only Romelu Lukaku for the PL’s golden boot, and his 25 goals in 30 games in all competitions don’t even come close to telling the full story of his contributions. Alli has scored in five of the last seven league games as his rise to stardom continues, and Son Heung-Min provides goalscoring from out wide as well.
Tottenham is a complete unit, and one that is absolutely capable of extending its unbeaten run through the final six games of the season. Whether that will be enough to catch Chelsea, however, is another question.
Chelsea isn’t necessarily slipping
The Blues went 13 games and three whole months without dropping points before the turn of the calendar. Their performance has dipped in 2017 — they’re 8-3-2, and have lost two of their last four — but how could it not after the remarkable 13-game winning streak? And in reality, the dip has only been a slight one.
The ailments plaguing Chelsea are a defense that hasn’t been quite as stout in recent months and a striker who’s gone cold. Antonio Conte’s team hasn’t kept a clean sheet in the league since January. Premier League managers have had time to adjust to Conte’s system, and Chelsea’s dominance has waned. Diego Costa’s goals have also dried up — the Brazilian-turned-Spaniard has scored just three times in the league since New Year’s.
But this is not time to panic. The Blues have, for the most part, avoided major injuries, so the squad is still intact. And while the lack of attacking impetus in the loss to Man United was alarming, it had far more to do with a clever Jose Mourinho tactical plan and an exceptional Red Devils performance. That can’t be understated. The number of English teams that could execute that game plan against Chelsea can be counted on one hand.
In fact, most of Chelsea’s struggles have occurred against sides that can match them physically. The Blues are 2-2-1 against the top seven in 2017, but are 19-1-2 against the rest of the league on the season. And, crucially, it’s the latter group of clubs that occupy the six remaining slots on Chelsea’s fixture list.
Chelsea couldn’t ask for an easier remaining schedule
The single biggest reason that the league leaders remain the probable league champions is that fixture list. Here are Chelsea’s remaining games:
April 25 — vs. Southampton
April 30 — at Everton
May 8 — vs. Middlesbrough
May 12 — at West Bromwich Albion
May 15 — vs. Watford
May 21 — vs. Sunderland
Chelsea has already beaten all six this season, and while the trip to Everton could be tricky, the second and third toughest matches – against Southampton and at West Brom – come against teams that have next to nothing to play for. Also, Sunderland will likely have already been relegated come the final day of the season.
Tottenham, on the other hand, still must host Arsenal and Man United, two teams still scrapping for a Champions League place. It also must travel away from home for its other four games — at Crystal Palace, West Ham United, Leicester City and Hull City.
Spurs do hold the superior goal differential, but given Chelsea’s schedule, they probably can’t afford to lose a game — they can’t count on three slip-ups (including two losses) from Chelsea.
That’s the precariousness of Tottenham’s title contender status. After all this, after the comeback, after the excitement of finally having a title race to sink our teeth into, all it takes is one weekend. One Spurs loss would have the Premier League trophy en route to Stamford Bridge. Tottenham has played well enough to convince us that such a loss won’t arrive, and if it doesn’t, the pressure is squarely on Chelsea. But the Blues remain the clear favorites.
