Oklahoma City Infirmary
Week 2 is one of my favorite weeks of the season. Selfishly, it’s right around the time that I’ve caught up on sleep following the run-up to the season. But more importantly to you it’s also the time when fantasy owners can strike it rich with buy-low and sell-high deals based on the small sample sizes and boisterous claims floating around the Internet.
I’ll probably hit on a lot of that this week but now is a great time for me to mention a format change with my Daily Dose, which I’ve modeled off of the type of analysis you’ve seen out of guys like Evan Silva in his NFL matchups columns and the like.
Truth be told, it’s a difficult operation to stay on top of so many games and give as many takes as I do in a typical Dose. At the same time, we want to give the crowd that wants a quick-hits type piece some timely information that doesn’t get knee-deep in every single contest.
So we here at Rotoworld World Headquarters HQ have come up with a way to have the cake and eat it too.
Starting with this Dose, I’ll be pushing out the quicker pieces you’ve seen out of some of my contemporaries and then I’ll be starting a new yet-to-be-named weekly breakdown column that runs during the day. We're targeting this Thursday and we’ll see how it goes. Feedback is welcome. Heck, I need to name the thing so give me your best shot.
So without further ado, let’s Dose.
For real-time NBA updates and fantasy information, you can click here to follow me on Twitter.
OKLAHOMA CITY INFIRMARY
Perry Jones hit the ground and the folks that bid anywhere from $300 to $800 of $1,000 FAAB dollars in various big money contests probably combusted on the spot. He knocked knees with Patrick Patterson and the injury is to his problem-knee, the right one that had meniscus issues that sent his draft stock tumbling. Now a knee contusion in a bubble is not a death knell, but through the years the Thunder has been pretty funky with their injury reporting, and seeing him have the same situation with his other knee the night before isn’t exactly endearing.
So the Thunder get until Friday’s game in (gulp) Memphis to rest Jones and Andre Roberson, who both left the arena in boots, braces and on crutches. The good news is that Roberson’s foot injury isn’t believed to be serious and no damning reports have come out on Jones, yet.
Reggie Jackson is falling apart with an apparent right wrist injury and a knee injury that had him walking like John Elway much of the time. He stayed in the game and looked pretty darn good with 13 points, four rebounds and a career-high 14 assists. Even Sebastian Telfair came up gimpy holding his wrist at one point, and like Jackson he managed to stay in the game and finish with 11 points, four rebounds, three assists, two steals and one trey in his 27 minutes.
So rather than detail the return times on each of the Thunder’s walking wounded, Anthony Slater of the Oklahoman has done the work for us. If Jones can stay on the court I think Scott Brooks will keep Jeremy Lamb in the corner as much as possible until Lamb can force his hand with a great game. But with Roberson and Jones both question marks I’d have a hard time not taking a chance on a short-term pickup with some longer-term upside, too. If you want to take a short-term/daily flier on Lance Thomas (14 points, five boards, one steal, 33 minutes) feel free if the injury report turns up with skulls and crossbones on it.
THE BIG NUMBERS
37 shots. 39 points. It’s like Kobe Bryant is Kevin Costner on the 18th at the U.S. Open. He’s only a top 50-100 value in standard leagues despite scoring 27.6 points per game, which is what happens when you sport a 40 percent mark from the field on 24.4 shots per game. He needs to clean it up and add some more popcorn stats if he’s going to sniff his ADP, but FG% punters are still in the game.
Jordan Hill went for 15 and 15 with a steal and three blocks in 34 minutes. As long as his knees don’t explode this will be a familiar sight with this many minutes.
Markieff Morris scored a season-high 23 points and grabbed 10 rebounds with five assists and a steal. His improvement simply handling the ball on the perimeter in the Suns’ spaced-out attack makes them incredibly dangerous on dribble-drives to the hoop. He’s rolling in top 40-50 value to start the year.
Isaiah Thomas scored 22 points on 8-of-16 shooting with three rebounds, nine assists, three steals and a three in 31 minutes off the bench. He got whacked by Ronnie Price on his surgically-repaired shooting wrist and it doesn’t appear to be fully healed, but it’s not to the point where owners should be considering a trade. He’s in the same ballpark as Morris with fourth-to-fifth round value in just 25 mpg.
Damian Lillard just needed a traffic cone named Kyrie to get going, as he posted 27 points on 6-of-13 shooting with six boards, seven assists, five treys, one steal, one block and a perfect 10 freebies. Don’t let the buy-low window hit you where the good Lord split you.
Robin Lopez scored 19 points with six rebounds, two assists, three steals and a block against the Cavs and is cruising along at his mid-round ADP.
Pau Gasol played a season-high 41 minutes with Joakim Noah (illness) out, double-doubling with 16 and 13 to go with one steal and two blocks. He’s rocking top 30-50 value so far this year in 35.6 mpg with numbers like his 3.0 blocks per game set to regress. It’s a sell-high moment.
Nikola Vucevic probably doesn’t even deserve mention since this will be a normal sight but his 19 and 13 with a steal and block were solid. He’s becoming one of the best back-to-the-basket players in the NBA (yeah I said it). Tobias Harris might as well be called ‘contract year’ and he poured in 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting with nine boards, a steal and a block. As long as Harris doesn’t take too many bad shots he’ll maintain a healthy workload for the Magic.
Jimmy Butler scored 21 points with nine boards, three assists, one steal and two blocks, and has now averaged 13.0 free throws per game since returning. He took the leap this summer
Anthony Davis obligatory mention – 24 points, 13 boards, three blocks, one steal
The Tyreke Evans heater continued on a 16-point, 10-rebound, and five-assist night including two threes. It’s a bit of a sell-high moment but the Pelicans would be crazy to cut him back too much. He brings a dynamic presence to the small forward position, a position I’ve been clamoring for him to play for years now.
Paul Pierce got back on the board after an ejection with 17 points, five rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks. Including the game he got ejected he’s been a top 30-50 value on the year. His game defied age for years in Boston and owners need not sleep here, but yeah it’s a sell-high moment.
Serge Ibaka went for 25 and 11 with three treys and a block despite dealing with an ankle issue. He has been putting the ball down on the floor and assuming a primary scoring role for the Thunder. That's gonna pay huge dividends down the road in both fantasy and reality.
Brandon Knight scored 23 points on 10-of-16 shooting with two threes, seven boards, two assists and two steals in a road win over the Pacers. He’ll come back to Earth at least a little bit, and maybe a lot, but don’t go overboard on your sell-high position. He’s more answer than question for the Bucks and Jason Kidd would be a lot crazy to mess with his mojo.
BUSTED
LeBron James had 11 points, seven boards, seven assists and one steal, going scoreless in the second half for just the second time in his entire career. Folks thought he was disinterested throughout the game and I caught myself wondering if he wanted to give his young teammates enough rope to hang themselves with. All of this plays to script on a team with so many new parts, and the only real takeaway is to go slower with your evaluation of these guys until they start to gel.
Kyrie Irving did his best to make Team USA’s decision to keep him over Damian Lillard look bad. He hit just 3-of-17 shots for nine points, five assists and a three, and gave up yet another big game as Lillard torched him for 27 efficient points. Of course it’s a buy low moment.
Goran Dragic scored 16 points with seven rebounds and four assists which will usually leave you out of this space, but he hasn’t hit a three yet this year and he’s averaging just 13.5 ppg. Buy low, but keep your expectations in check. The Pizza Guy is going to keep him and this next guy from roaming free.
Eric Bledsoe (21 minutes, six points, one assist, zero assists, one block) spent the entire summer away from the team and anybody expecting a fast start was doing so based on his physical tools overcoming that. They’re not. He’s also a buy low guy, but with Thomas and Dragic being more reliable offensive options it wouldn’t be surprising to see his usage numbers take the first hit among the three-headed point guard rotation.
Kemba Walker hit just 4-of-13 shots for 11 points, three assists, two rebounds, one steal and three treys in 27 minutes. The Hornets are struggling to start the year and once they figure out Lance Stephenson they should all get a lot better. Al Jefferson scored 20 points but had just five rebounds, one steal and zero blocks. He’s just a top-75 play to start the year due to low rebound totals (6.3 rpg) and substandard shooting (45.6 FG%, 63.2 FT%). The buy low window is open for Big Al.
Stephenson was benched for the fourth quarter again and finished with just two points, four assists and seven boards in 23 minutes. While we’re at it that’s an obvious buy-low situation, too.
Marcin Gortat hit for just six points and seven rebounds in 22 minutes last night against the Knicks, but he gets Roy Hibbert on Wednesday and in the playoffs he pretty much owned the guy. Hibbert has more bounce in his step right now than he did then, for what it’s worth.
INJURIES
Derrick Rose (ankles) was the latest of latest scratches last night and beat writer K.C. Johnson called the Bulls’ starting lineup the most difficult beat in the NBA. This is what owners signed up for and a reason I had him so low. This is basically an extended preseason for him so hopefully the consistency increases as the year goes on. A road game in Milwaukee tonight doesn’t scream must-play, so stay alert around game-time. Aaron Brooks had a nice outing last night with 13 points, eight assists and three blocks in 30 minutes. He is the play over Kirk Hinrich (five points, three rebounds, three assists, two steals) if Rose misses more time.
Jonas Valanciunas will travel to Boston for Wednesday’s game after taking a shot to the nose. Scans on that came back negative and he also left momentarily early in the game after taking a shot to the hand (X-rays negative). Amir Johnson (ankle) won’t travel for Wednesday’s game in Boston so Patrick Patterson (14 points, eight boards, two steals, one block, two threes) and Tyler Hansbrough (12 points, seven boards, oone steal, 8-of-10 FTs, 27 minutes) are going to be worth a look in daily leagues. If Patterson can keep it up, he'll have some longer-term appeal best suited for deeper leagues, as well.
Terrence Jones (bruised right leg) didn’t play last night and the injury sounds minor. Donatas Motiejunas (two points, one rebound) and Kostas Papanikolaou (37 minutes, eight points, seven boards, five assists, two blocks, two threes) aren’t worth an add, even with Papanikolaou showing out last night.
WELCOME BACK
Taj Gibson (ankle) returned and scored 16 points with four rebounds, one steal and two blocks. He’s a lower end option when the Bulls’ frontcourt is healthy, but he’ll be a must-start guy on most nights if they’re down a player.
Patrick Beverley (hamstring) probably could have gone against the Sixers on Monday, but he wisely took an extra night off and ripped off 15 points with four treys last night. As long as he’s healthy he has mid-round upside and should cruise into late-round value.
Josh McRoberts was on a strict 8-10 minute limit and looked lost out there with four fouls and nothing else last night. Just be patient, he’s basically rehabbing on the court.
Rodney Stuckey (foot) returned to action and scored nine points with one rebound and three assists in 18 minutes off the bench. The usage is up for grabs in Indy right now but it’s anybody’s guess if Stuckey can pull it together to take advantage of that. I can see a desperate speculative add in deeper leagues, but not for anybody that profiles with a chance at top-100 value.
P.J. Tucker returned from his three-game suspension for super-extreme DUI and scored three points with five rebounds and two assists in 20 minutes off the bench. He’s going to infringe upon the fantasy value of others more than make waves himself, but as I said in the Bruski 150 he’s going to get a nightly three yards per carry and finish in a top-150 cloud of dust.
PICKUPS
Gerald Green played just 23 minutes but he looked great once again scoring a season-high 26 points with two threes. He’s a guy that had a high B150 ranking (100/87) and has started off slow, which isn't incredibly surprising. The ranking was based off durability, strong percentages and a projection of 26 mpg on the year, with the second half of the season being a better bet than the first. He’s in the 110-130 range right now in 24 mpg and lower-than-projected percentages. A set-it-and-forget-it player in that you have to roll with him through the thick and thin, Green profiles better in deeper leagues right now where that type of consistent low-end production is easier to plug into a lineup.
Channing Frye logged 36 minutes but only attempted four shots (all threes) against the Bulls, finishing with nine points, seven rebounds, three assists, one steal and two blocks. The Magic should try to milk him for everything he’s worth after that big contract, and especially in 9-cat leagues he should get enough minutes to float his standard league value. Remember, a little goes a long way for his fantasy friendly game.
Gary Neal jumped right into the space left by Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (hip) and scored 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting with six rebounds, two threes and a steal in 26 minutes. The Hornets need his offense right now and he looks like a decent short-term pickup best suited for deeper leagues.
Garrett Temple was a guy that I really wanted to add in my deeper 12-team big money leagues this past Sunday, but higher priority guys landed in my lap. Too bad. He scored 17 points with four treys, five boards, two assists and one steal in 30 minutes, and he appears to have the confidence of both beat writers and Randy Wittman. He has a good chance at a serviceable run while Bradley Beal is out.
O.J. Mayo’s nine points, three rebounds, five assists and three steals in 22 minutes don’t scream pick me up, but he still looks like one of the Bucks’ better players and the upside is right. If he hits the wire I’d have a hard time not taking a flier on him.
DROPS
Wes Johnson scored four points on 1-of-4 shooting with four rebounds, two assists, one steal and one block in 34 minutes. Until Kobe’s forced through some circumstance to pass the ball standard league owners can do better.
Eric Gordon’s freefall continued last night against the Hornets as he missed all six of his field goal attempts and only had two steals to buoy an unmentionable stat line. The contract was terrible when the Pelicans offered it, and clearly the team is more comfortable with Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis touching the ball over him. Barring an injury in front of him there’s no light at the end of this tunnel.
Norris Cole disappeared last night with just two assists and one steal in 16 minutes. Erik Spoelstra is clearly experimenting with his backcourt rotation and Cole doesn’t have enough consistent usage to survive the valleys, at least as it stands right now.
C.J. Miles has all of the opportunity in the world right now but isn’t cashing in, and last night he missed all eight of his shots in 29 minutes. His stat-set can’t survive anything but high-level shooting and scoring and that’s to get to late-round value. That calculus isn’t worth hanging onto in standard leagues.
Khris Middleton was moved to the bench and managed just eight points, four rebounds, one steal and one block in 21 minutes. It’s not a critical blow to his low-end value in 14-team leagues but the Larry Drew quality to Jason Kidd’s rotations cannot be denied.
