Offseason Injury Report
The Rotoworld staff is currently working hard to prepare the 2015 Rotoworld Baseball Draft Guide and I'm confident that it's going to be our best one yet. With the new year just days away, the focus will shift to the upcoming season before you know it, so I figured this was a good time to look at some high-profile players who are currently making their way back from injuries and/or surgery. Keep in mind that this is not intended to be a comprehensive list in any way. I simply wanted to discuss a handful (a baker's dozen, actually) of notable names and point out a few things to keep in mind going into 2015. If you want all the latest news on injuries and transactions, be sure to keep refreshing our player news page. You can also follow me (@djshort) and @Rotoworld_BB on Twitter.
Miguel Cabrera 1B, Tigers
Cabrera was visibly hobbled down the stretch this past season, but nobody knew how bad it really was until it was announced in October that he had surgery to remove bone spurs from his right ankle and repair a stress fracture to the navicular bone in his foot. To quote Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski, it was "worse than what we ever would have anticipated." While what Cabrera did last season wasn't quite on par with his back-to-back MVP seasons, it was pretty darn impressive under the circumstances, especially when you look at his numbers in September. The 31-year-old had two screws inserted into his foot and is set to be re-evaluated next month, but it's no sure thing that he'll be ready for Opening Day. He's a first-round pick on my big board right now anyway, but players like Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew McCutchen, Clayton Kershaw, Paul Goldschmidt, and (of course) Mike Trout are ahead of him. Think mid-to-late first round, not early-first like we've been accustomed to.
Matt Harvey SP, Mets
Harvey said on multiple occasions that he wanted to pitch by the end of 2014, but the Mets (and logic) ultimately won out. However, the good news is that everything has gone well in his rehab from Tommy John surgery and he appears on track for the start of 2015. The 25-year-old said earlier this month that he hoped to get back on a mound "by mid-December" and start facing batters by February 1. He'll face an unspecified innings limit next season, so the Mets could delay his first start until the team's home opener on April 13 and will likely skip a few starts along the way in order to have him pitch deep into the year. He'll be 18 months removed from surgery by April, but it's still fair to wonder if it will take a little while for his command to return. If that's the case, we might not see him at his best again until 2016, so I fear that expectations might be a little too high for his return.
Ryan Braun OF, Brewers
Braun saw his OPS slide to a career-low .777 last season, giving more fuel to those who feel the need to speculate that his success was built on PEDs, but you can't say that without realizing that he has been dealing with a right thumb injury dating back to the early part of 2013. He underwent a cryotherapy procedure on October 2 to treat a nerve in the thumb and resumed swinging a bat a couple of weeks later. While Braun still has some hurdles to cross as he increases baseball activity, he told reporters in late-November that his thumb "hasn't felt this good in a really long time." We can't just assume he'll bounce back to the player he was before the injury, so there is some risk here, but there's tremendous upside if he's feeling good in the spring. With his ability to produce across the board, 2015 could be the year to target him at a discount.
Jose Fernandez SP, Marlins
2014 was the year of the Tommy John surgery in baseball and Fernandez was its most prominent victim. After posting a brilliant 2.25 ERA across his first 36 starts in the majors, the Marlins' 22-year-old ace went under the knife this past May. There haven't been any setbacks in Fernandez's rehab thus far and he was cleared to resume throwing in October, but the Marlins aren't expecting him back until around midseason next year. As I noted with Harvey above, command is often the last thing to return after surgery, so I wonder what fantasy owners can realistically expect from him in a half-season worth of starts in 2015. He could obviously provide a huge second-half boost for a team that appears to have postseason aspirations, but it will require patience to stash him in a DL spot in standard mixed leagues. If it takes drafting him inside the top-50 starting pitchers, I'll probably pass.
Matt Wieters C, Orioles
Wieters was off to an excellent start last season prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in June. While it's true that position players usually don't require as much rehab time after surgery as pitchers do, it can understandably be a bit more complicated with catchers. Orioles manager Buck Showalter told Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com last week that he's not sure whether Wieters will be ready for Opening Day, though Wieters' agent, Scott Boras, has since said that he will be. Regardless, he figures to have a lighter workload when he's ready, possibly with some time at designated hitter mixed in. We should have a lot more clarity on this situation during spring training, but I still see him as a top-12 catcher in mixed leagues right now, possibly with some sort of comparable backup plan at the ready just in case he needs extra time.
Jake McGee RP, Rays
In a recent development, it was announced last week that McGee underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow on December 12. According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, McGee experienced discomfort and swelling after lifting weights during offseason workouts and an MRI revealed "a big loose body." The Rays won't put a timeline on his return until the spring, but he's expected to be out until at least late April or early May. It's too bad, as McGee is coming off a brilliant season in which he posted a 1.89 ERA over a career-high 71 1/3 innings while going 19-for-23 in save opportunities. We could see a committee until McGee is ready, with Ernesto Frieri, Kevin Jepsen, Brad Boxberger, and Grant Balfour among the candidates. I'd peg Frieri as the early favorite, even coming off a terrible year.
Carlos Gonzalez OF, Rockies
I considered Gonzalez a top-10 pick in mixed leagues this spring even with the obvious risk and put my money where my mouth was by selecting him in a few leagues. Yeah, sorry about that one. Physical issues were a constant for Gonzalez in 2014, including an appendectomy in January, a benign tumor in his left index finger which had to be surgically removed in June, a right ankle sprain in late-July, and a nagging left knee injury which ultimately ended his season in August. It clearly did a number on his production, as he batted just .238 with 11 home runs and .723 OPS over 281 plate appearances, but does he really deserve a complete mulligan with his injury history? The knee surgery was fairly involved, as he had part of his patella tendon cut out and a bursa sac removed as well as a "fat pad" cleaned up. Rockies trainer Keith Dugger said after the procedure that CarGo might be a bit behind at the start of spring training next year, but they are hopeful he'll be ready for Opening Day. At this point, I'm finally willing to let someone else take the risk. It could change if he looks good in the spring, but he might not even crack my top-15 outfielders.
Garrett Richards SP, Angels
Richards' velocity finally translated to results last season, as he emerged as one of the American League's best pitchers with a 2.61 ERA and 164/51 K/BB ratio in 168 2/3 innings over 26 starts. Unfortunately, his breakout season ended in painful fashion in late August when he tore the patellar tendon in his left knee while trying to cover first base. The initial timetable after surgery was 6-9 months and Angels manager Mike Scioscia said during this month's Winter Meetings that he likely won't be ready until early-to-mid May. I actually see this as an opportunity for fantasy owners, as his price tag could be discounted because he won't be ready right away. Richards calls a pitchers' park home and boasts a career ground ball rate above 50 percent, so I like his chances of picking up from where he left off in 2014. He's someone I'll be targeting as a DL stash on draft day.
Manny Machado 3B, Orioles
Machado sure has some bad luck with freak injuries, huh? After tearing the medial patellofemoral ligament in his left knee when he awkwardly stepped on the first base bag in September of 2013, the 22-year-old suffered a partially-torn ligament in his right knee this past August when he fouled off a pitch. The injury required another surgery, though he was already taking some ground balls and doing some basic baseball activities in November. While Machado began this past season on the disabled list while rehabbing from his first knee surgery, Orioles manager Buck Showalter recently told Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com that he believes his third baseman could be back for the start of 2015 and even beat Matt Wieters back to action. I'll concede that Machado is not a finished product at the plate, but he's still very young and showed some encouraging signs of progress after a slow start in 2014. Some will understandably be scared off by the early injuries, but he could prove to be a value if he falls outside the top-10 third basemen in mixed leagues.
Joey Votto 1B, Reds
2014 was a lost year for Votto, as he was limited to just 62 games due to a distal quadriceps strain near his left knee. While he progressed to baseball activities by the end of the year, he didn't play a single game with the Reds after July 5. The 31-year-old showed a lack of power even when he was able to play, amassing just six home runs in 220 plate appearances. His elite plate discipline remained, as evidenced by his .390 on-base percentage and 49/47 K/BB ratio, but his quad/knee issues clearly took a toll on his ability to drive the ball. And truth be told, his power hasn't been quite the same since his knee surgeries in 2012. For what it's worth, the Reds have received positive reports on him this offseason and manager Bryan Price recently said that Votto is expected to have "zero limitations" when spring training begins. His ADP (average draft position) will likely hinge on how he looks in February and March, but I see him as a fringe top-10 first baseman right now in mixed leagues.
Cliff Lee SP, Phillies
Lee logged at least 211 innings every season from 2008-2013 while posting a stingy 2.89 ERA, so you wouldn't blame those fantasy owners who invested an early pick last spring based on his durability and consistent excellence. However, 2014 showed that no pitcher is safe from elbow injuries. Lee was limited to just 13 starts last season due to a flexor pronator strain in his elbow, but managed to avoid surgery and received platelet-plasma injections to help with the healing process. The veteran southpaw has had a normal offseason so far and isn't expected to get back on a mound until around January. Lee likely would have been mentioned in trade rumors this offseason, but he'll have to prove his health and effectiveness before teams would even consider the possibility. Fantasy owners should have a similar attitude. With the depth and quality of starting pitching right now, there will likely be safer plays out there given where his ADP (average draft position) could be.
Dustin Pedroia 2B, Red Sox
A thumb injury sapped Pedroia's power in 2013, but last year it was a wrist injury which spoiled his season. The veteran second baseman finished 2014 with a .278/.337/.376 batting line to go along with seven home runs, all career-lows since he became a regular back in 2007. He had surgery in September which consisted of a "first dorsal compartment release and a tenosynovectomy" of the wrist. I'm not going to pretend to know what that means, but Pedroia said in November that he's "back to 100 percent." His contact rate is healthy enough for a rebound in batting average, but I'm not convinced that the power will return and we might not be able to count on another 20-plus stolen bases as he goes into his age 31-season. The whole package still makes him valuable in mixed leagues, but he's not as interesting now following the emergence of Jose Altuve, Anthony Rendon, and Brian Dozier.
George Springer OF, Astros
Fantasy owners savored their brief time with Springer last season, as the 25-year-old rookie socked 20 home runs to go along with an .804 OPS (125 OPS+) in 78 games prior to going down with a left quad strain in mid-July. The Astros played it safe with their young stud, so he only appeared in two games after the All-Star break. Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said in November that Springer is fully healed and should have a normal offseason, so there should be no worries going into 2015. The strikeout rate is a major cause for concern and it would be nice to see him utilize some of the speed we saw in the minors, but keep in mind that only Giancarlo Stanton and Edwin Encarnacion hit home runs more often than Springer (14.8 HR/AB) last season. And his batted ball distance indicates that there's nothing fluky about it. Springer is already a top-20 fantasy outfielder with the upside for more.
