NL MVP race between Kershaw, Stanton, but Marlins slugger gets nod
Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton and Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw both deserve the MVP Award. Both have been brilliant from their start to their finish and are worthy of the award though neither will play quite a full season. Kershaw started on the disabled list and Stanton quite likely will end it on the sideline.
Each man has a case, and a strong one -- though each has a little history to overcome -- well beyond missing games.
Stanton's issue is his team's standing, which is no fault of his own. Some say the award should simply go to the best player and not be affected by team performance, though history suggests it is. And that isn't necessarily unreasonable: the award, after all, is for most valuable.
So it is fair to consider the upstart Marlins were only on the cusp of the pennant race, before falling out of it almost immediately after Stanton was sidelined by a fastball to the face. (Though perhaps the timing of the Marlins' demise could actually work in Stanton's favor).
As for Kershaw, he's a pitcher, and they have their own honor, the Cy Young Award, which Kershaw once again will win with ease. There is substantial precedent to suggest pitchers generally only win the MVP award when no hitter is deserving, and it's true that only once in the past 21 years (42 award winners) has a pitcher taken home the trophy (Justin Verlander in 2011). Even Ron Guidry, who went 25-3 with a 1.74 in 1978 to blow away the field for a World Series winner, didn't come especially close to beating Jim Rice for MVP (though I might have to question that call).
Regardless of the respective issues associated with each candidate, one of them surely will be the NL MVP. That has become one sure thing in this season of certainty.
Although there is plenty of precedent to favor position players on playoff teams -- Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, Josh Harrison, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez are having excellent seasons for potential playoff teams -- there is not one good reason to select someone other than Kershaw or Stanton. They are putting together special seasons, so voting anyone else first would seem like a stretch worthy of Willie McCovey.
Kershaw missed the first five weeks because of an arm concern, and Stanton likely will miss the final three weeks after being nailed by an errant Mike Fiers fastball, but their seasons leave little room for discussion of anyone else.
Stanton will be viewed as playing for an also-ran, but he didn't toil for last-place teams like previous MVP winners Andre Dawson (now a Marlins adviser), Alex Rodriguez and Cal Ripken Jr. Stanton. His performance gave the Marlins hope into September, but that dream died the moment Stanton was struck in the kisser.
But Stanton still was the main reason the Marlins overcame a startlingly low $47 million payroll and disheartening injury to ace pitcher Jose Fernandez to remain in the race. Without Stanton the Marlins' season might have nearly as depressing as 2013. That may be an exaggeration, but Stanton undoubtedly lifted the Marlins to the point where they became an interesting story. No one could have foreseen a .500 season without Fernandez, but the Marlins came close. For that, they owe Stanton.
Kershaw has his own cross to bear. While pitchers have won the award many times (even more often than players on also-rans), they generally are only favored in years when no position player sets himself apart. The reason isn't necessarily about how few appearance a pitcher makes -- though in Kershaw's case, it'd be a little weird since he's been limited him to 25 games, or only 16.6 percent of the Dodgers' 150 games.
Kershaw certainly has made his impact felt, though it's fair to note he actually has faced slightly more batters than Stanton (or any other NL hitter) has faced pitchers -- though that argument falls somewhat flat since it totally discounts fielding and baserunning, and Stanton has managed to turn himself into something special in both those areas. The real reason pitchers don't often win the MVP award is the presence of the Cy Young.
Nonetheless, Kershaw's MVP case is gaining steam as he continues to help keep the Dodgers atop the NL West -- gaining strength as he goes. The ERA is 1.19 since June 21. Like Guidry in '78, he's barely beatable. (Guidry's fourth loss didn't come until the ballots were in.)
As usual, the NL's biggest honor in the NL will come down to the numbers. So a close look at the stats is necessary, perhaps even a bit closer than normal.
Kershaw's momentum over the idle Stanton is undeniable, and the lefty's season ranked among the all-time best can't be disregarded. Kershaw's numbers (19-3, 1.70, 219 strikeouts) are historic. Meanwhile, Stanton's stats (37, 105, .288, .950 OPS) are excellent, but the raw numbers in no way appear historic.
Kershaw's data certainly appears a lot prettier. But Stanton's statistical season is somewhat comparable to Kershaw's because 2014 has been an unusually low-scoring season. A more fair comparison in this year of the pitcher is not how Kershaw's season fits into history but how the seasons of Kershaw and Stanton compare to their peers.
Even using that measure, each blows away the field to the point where it's hard to pick one. Again, Kershaw's season is a killer, but in this year where nearly everyone has power pitching but few have power hitting, Stanton stacks up a lot nicer than you'd think.
There is more than a mound of evidence this is one of those years -- maybe not quite to the degree of 1968 -- that pitchers have a significant edge. Bob Gibson and Denny McLain, two pitchers, won the MVP in '68 with historically memorable seasons; Gibson had a 1.12 ERA and McLain 31 wins and a sub-2 ERA. But unlike this NL year, no batters were worthy that summer. This time, one is.
Kershaw leads the NL in wins, WAR and WHIP. He leads in ERA, quality-start percentage, complete games and win percentage. He leads in batting average against, OBP against, slugging percentage against and OPS against. So it's fair to say he's lapped the field. Johnny Cueto, Adam Wainwright and others have put together sterling seasons, but none touching Kershaw.
The same could be said for Stanton, who leads in a comparable number of categories. Stanton tops the NL field in home runs, extra-base hits and total bases. He leads in runs created, and of course runs created per 27 outs. He leads in SecA (secondary average, which is the number of bases gained independent of batting average), ISOP (isolated power, which is slugging percentage minus batting average), BB and IBB.
Stanton is 0.1 behind in one version of WAR, though that seems like a fluke unless anyone believes Jason Heyward has been Stanton's equal. Quite likely, no one does. So he should lead that category, too.
Kershaw leads Reds star Johnny Cueto in almost all the major categories. Stanton tops Paul Goldschmidt, who went out with an injury earlier, also on a HBP (it's been a rough year all around), in most of the percentage categories, with Anthony Rizzo, Hunter Pence, Lucroy, Matt Carpenter and Chase Utley just behind him in home runs, total bases, extra-base hits, walks and intentional walks, respectively.
Kershaw doesn't lead in innings or strikeouts. Stanton is behind in batting average, and he lost his lead in RBI on Monday night, a few days after being beaned. (Kershaw's teammate Adrian Gonzalez just passed him). He may lose his edge in another category or two if he doesn't make good on the miracle recovery he's shooting for, but not too many.
Kershaw has been superb, but looking through the pitching prism that is 2014 (the number of 1-0 shutouts is getting out of hand lately), Stanton has been just about as superb. In a year when nobody is hitting home runs, Stanton was hitting plenty of them. And no small thing, he was hitting them in a massive ballpark, and in a lineup without even one other real brand-name threat around him in a lineup filled with up-and-comers.
So when taking a closer look at the numbers, Stanton gets the nod here, as he plays a position and he helped write a nice story for the Marlins, even if it wasn't quite a postseason story.
Kershaw couldn't have been much better, and it certainly isn't his fault he's a pitcher, but he'll win his third Cy Young, and he'll win it unanimously. It just seems like Stanton, in this year of the pitcher, has done too much and been too great to be shut out.
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