NFL against the spread picks: Here come the Houston Texans
When you get absolutely embarrassed at home in a playoff game, the rematch isn’t going to be a normal Week 2 game.
The Houston Texans have had a lot of time to think about that 30-0 blowout to the Kansas City Chiefs in the wild-card round last year. It was the first game of the playoff season and everyone watched the Texans get torn apart, starting with the opening kickoff that was returned for a score by Kansas City. It ended Brian Hoyer’s Texans career and caused Houston to overpay for Brock Osweiler to replace him.
The Texans also were blasted in Week 1 of last season by the Chiefs. There has to be a lot of motivation built up for the Texans this week.
[Play our $250K Baller | Free Yahoo Cup entry | Free commissioners $15K contest]
And this is a better Texans team. You could see in Week 1 how the addition of Will Fuller takes pressure off DeAndre Hopkins, how Lamar Miller can keep the offense balanced, and how the defense can get after the quarterback even if J.J. Watt is still getting back to normal after back surgery. It’s a very intriguing team.
The Chiefs are very good, though falling behind 24-3 to the San Diego Chargers at home was a little odd. I just think this is the Texans’ time to show they’re better than the team that got worked over twice by the Chiefs last year. The Texans are small favorites and I’m taking them. I’m anticipating picking the Texans often this season; I think they’re going to be much better than anyone realizes yet.
Here are the rest of my picks for Week 2:
SuperContest picks
Texans (-3) over Chiefs: Reasons above. As an aside, my first week in the SuperContest went OK, with a 3-2 record (good enough for about a million-way tie for second among Team OddsShark), but I’ll forever be angry I switched off from a Tampa Bay Buccaneers winner to go with the Arizona Cardinals. Should have feared Bill Belichick more. (The line for Texans-Chiefs is -2.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)
Redskins (-2.5) over Cowboys: Dak Prescott played OK, but he wasn’t great. He was a very safe quarterback, and that’s a good reason Dez Bryant had one catch. Washington isn’t bad because it lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Redskins just don’t beat good teams. I don’t think the Cowboys are very good with Prescott.
Raiders (-5) over Falcons: A Raiders team I like pretty well against a Falcons team that I’m really down on. In Oakland, where they should be fired up after the Raiders started 1-0 with a fun win at New Orleans. Sold. (The line is -4.5 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em.)
Jaguars (+3) over Chargers: Very easy pick here — I think the wrong team is favored.
Bears (-3.5) over Eagles: I don’t think the Bears were bad last week, I just think the Texans are pretty good. And I don’t think the Eagles are wonderful all of a sudden because they beat the Browns. (This line is -3 in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em … and I’m worried about that half-point SuperContest loss like I took with the Giants last week.)
Podcast: Week 2 previews, the most average QB in the NFL is…
Subscribe to Grandstanding • iTunes • Stitcher • Soundcloud
Here are the rest of the Week 2 picks:
Jets (pick ‘em) over Bills (picked Thursday): The Bills just looked bad. They hit three big plays, and were dominated the rest of the game.
Browns (+6) over Ravens: I like the Ravens this season, just think this line is inflated since all we heard all week is how terrible the Browns are.
Lions (-5.5) over Tennessee: The Lions are another team I like more than most.
Patriots (-6.5) over Dolphins: I’d like to take the Dolphins here, but teams don’t usually fare well the week after playing the Seahawks, they had a long trip and their offense looked awful.
Giants (-4.5) over Saints: Breaking news: New Orleans’ defense isn’t good. I’m worried I like too many favorites this week (though, with underdogs going 9-5-2 last week according to OddsShark.com, maybe we’re kinda due for a favorites-friendly week).
Bengals (+3) over Steelers: These two teams are not separated by much, so I’ll take the points. Great game.
Panthers (-13) over 49ers: Scheduling wise, it doesn’t get worse than what the 49ers face this week. They played the latest kickoff on the entire NFL schedule, the second “Monday Night Football” game in Week 1. Now they have to travel east, kick off at 10 a.m. Pacific time, against a team (which is coming off a 15-1 season) that had extra rest after playing on Thursday. Last year the 49ers faced a similar situation going to Pittsburgh in Week 2 and got blasted.
Seahawks (-3.5) over Rams: This pick has me nervous. I don’t know how well Russell Wilson can move, and there’s no way the Rams will look that terrible two weeks in a row. They swept Seattle last season, somehow. But the lines in Las Vegas, now that it’s clear Wilson will play, are about 6.5 points. So I’ll take the Seahawks on the lower line in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em — which is what I use for all lines here — though I’m still strangely nervous about it.
Buccaneers (+6.5) over Cardinals: I’m not down on the Cardinals because they lost on a missed field goal on the final play last week. But Jameis Winston can keep the Bucs in this, or at least the backdoor cover will remain open with him.
Colts (+6) over Broncos: Line seems to be a little overreaction. And it’s worth noting the Colts beat the Broncos last season, so they won’t be intimidated.
Vikings (+2) over Packers: I’m picking this for a simple reason — this line seems to be begging people to take the Packers. And about 82 percent of people in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em are doing just that. If I wasn’t picking all 16 games every week, this would be the one game I’d run from and never look back. I have no idea what happens here. It should be a fun one.
Last week: 12-4
Season to date: 13-4
SuperContest: 3-2
Related NFL coverage from Yahoo Sports:
– – – – – – –
Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
Follow @YahooSchwab
