Monthly Review: Scoring
Today's column takes a look back at some scoring trends in the first month of the 2014-15 season. Using both team and individual numbers, the goal is to explore interesting and unexpected performances around the NBA.
Fantasy owners must pay close attention to metrics like shooting percentages, offensive and defensive efficiency, usage rates and much more, as the many components of scoring are emphasized in fantasy leagues. In most daily fantasy leagues, the 'points' category alone constitutes between 40%-50% of total player values. In leagues with 'fantasy points', scoring categories typically range from 40%-55% of total values. In 8-cat leagues scoring takes up half of the categories (points, 3-pointers, FG% and FT%), and it’s not far behind in 9-cat leagues. There's a lot to discuss, so let's get started.
The Mavericks lead the NBA with 109.1 points per game with an effective FG percentage of 53.4%. They're also tops in the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 113.8 points per 100 possessions. That level of success is even more surprising since they've incorporated a new starting PG (Jameer Nelson), a new starting SF (Chandler Parsons) and a sort-of-new starting C (Tyson Chandler). Dallas pushed the Spurs to seven games in the playoffs last year and they remain an under-the-radar contender out West. Even Chicago’s defense failed to stop them on Tuesday, as the Mavs racked up 132 points in a double-OT road win. As a footnote...Mark Cuban said he didn't expect his team to have any player average 20 points per game this season, but so far he’s being proved wrong. Monta Ellis ranks 15th in the league at 20.6 points per game (after his 38-point eruption on Tuesday), followed by Dirk Nowitzki who is 20th in the league at 19.6 points. It's no big surprise, then, that Dallas has six players in the top-80 for roto value.
The teams struggling the most offensively are the Thunder (90.9 points per game), 76ers, Pistons, Knicks and Pacers. The Sixers' woes are compounded by the fact that they also give up the fourth-most points (105.9 per game), fewer than only the Celtics, Timberwolves and Lakers. In a league format that emphasizes points-scored (FanDuel being a great example), those are delectable teams to target for matchup purposes.
Moving to each team's fastbreak points, we find both few predictable and unusual results. The Cavaliers are averaging 4.7 more fastbreak points this season than they did in 2013-14, which is the biggest gain of any team. This is predictable given the arrival of LeBron James, Kevin Love and a coach who isn’t Mike Brown. The Cavs are followed by the Celtics, who have benefited from Rajon Rondo's return (19 assists on Tuesday) and the rapid development of guys like Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger and Avery Bradley. Interestingly, the Raptors have also added 3.6 fastbreak points per game this year (from a paltry 9.6 to this year's 13.2), which is impressive considering they've only added a few key reserves in James Johnson and Lou Williams. Unfortunately for Toronto, the trend will be hard to continue with DeMar DeRozan (groin) out of commission.
On the flipside, the injury-ravaged Thunder have slipped from last year's excellent 16.1 fastbreak points to a mere 6.8 per game this season. That's a massive drop of 9.3 points, which is easily the most in the league, but it should change in a hurry with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant both back in action. The Pistons aren't far behind, having fallen from 16.9 to just 9.9 under coach Stan Van Gundy. The sluggish pace and lack of easy transition buckets may be part of the reason he recently abandoned the ill-fitting starting lineup that featured Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Josh Smith. In between OKC and Detroit, having lost 7.2 transition points per game, we find the Clippers. This surprised me as there's seemingly no reason for a decline -- my anecdotal guess is that the Clippers bench has seen the biggest drop-off, but the early struggles of starters Matt Barnes and J.J. Redick must be a contributing factor.
On a league-wide basis, NBA offenses tend to improve as the season progresses. They become more efficient and score more points, on average, so it makes sense that fastbreak points would be down at this point in the season when compared to 2013-14. That didn't prepare me for the massive drop-off shown in the data from TeamRankings.com -- the league as a whole is averaging 7.5 percent fewer fastbreak points this season (a cumulative -29.8 points per game).
We now pass on from fastbreak scoring to bench production, where the Phoenix Suns lead the way with a whopping 45.6 points per game. Isaiah Thomas (15.5 points) and Gerald Green (14.4 points) have quickly formed a formidable duo that would start for plenty of teams around the NBA, but they're limited to 20-25 minutes per game thanks to Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. We haven't heard even a whisper of trade talks from Phoenix, despite their glut of desirable guards, so fantasy owners should resign themselves to up-and-down value from Green and IT3 (the latter of whom remains day-to-day with a bruised ankle). The Suns' reserves are also rank third in rebounds per game (18.2), ninth in steals (1.9) and fifth in 3-point percentage (37.9%). Not too shabby. Other high-scoring bench units include the Bucks' ever-changing reserves (45.3 points per game), the Knicks (40.3) and the Nuggets (40.2).
At the other end of the spectrum we find the Cavaliers, whose bench is dead-last with just 22.3 points per game and a league-worst defensive efficiency (per HoopsStats.com). LeBron James has lobbied for coach David Blatt to reduce the starters’ minutes and get the reserves more involved, but the Cavs bench remains toothless despite the presence of Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters. Rookie Joe Harris made some noise early in the season when LeBron tabbed him as a likely rotation player, and there was some thought that Harris could even become a starter, but in the past five games he's averaging 1.4 points on 27.3% shooting in just 11.2 minutes per game. So much for that. Mike Miller played 18 minutes on Tuesday and made a clutch 3-pointer, as he is wont to do, so we may see the veteran leapfrog Harris into the rotation.
Now for some notes about individual scoring. Kobe Bryant's 26.6 points per game currently have him in the league lead, ahead of James Harden (25.2), Anthony Davis (24.9), LeBron James (24.9) and Stephen Curry (23.8). It must be noted that Kevin Durant hasn't yet weighed in due to his foot injury, and Carmelo Anthony has quickly risen to the No. 6 spot after a very slow start under coach Derek Fisher.
The league leaders in True Shooting percentages, meanwhile, are dominated by PF/Cs and 3-point specialists, all of whom see relatively low usage rates. (Note: True Shooting % accounts for free throws and 3-pointers, as well as typical 2-point field goals.) Brandan Wright leads the way with a ridiculous true shooting percentage of 74.9 percent, followed by Hedo Turkoglu, Kyle Korver, Rasual Butler, Tyson Chandler, Tyler Zeller, DeAndre Jordan, Alexis Ajinca, Pablo Prigioni and...Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Yes, MKG has only played in six games so the small sample size has skewed his results, but it's still noteworthy that he was making 62.5% of his FGs and a reasonable 70.4% of his FTs before getting injured. His much-maligned jumper hasn't improved noticeably, but it hasn't mattered since all but seven of his shots have come within 12 feet of the hoop.
Here are some more-or-less under-appreciated fantasy players who are in the top-50 for true shooting percentage: Courtney Lee, Anderson Varejao, Patrick Beverley, Rudy Gobert, James Johnson, Harrison Barnes, DeMarre Carroll, Alex Len, Marreese Speights, Danny Green, Timofey Mozgov, Ed Davis and Ben McLemore. The big men in that list are all useful sources of FG% in fantasy leagues, while the guards and swingmen are generally useful for 3-pointers without hurting you in FG%.
Taking the opposite approach, here are some higher-profile players who rank in the bottom-50 for true shooting percentage: Josh Smith, Lance Stephenson, Vince Carter, Elfrid Payton, Dion Waiters, Michael Carter-Williams, Mason Plumlee, Tyreke Evans, Kemba Walker, Rajon Rondo, Samuel Dalembert, Ricky Rubio, Andre Drummond, Nicolas Batum, Trey Burke, Joakim Noah and J.R. Smith.
That's an interesting list with plenty of surprising names. Josh Smith is a staple of inefficient offense, but teammate Andre Drummond is off to a brutal start from the field. He made 62.3% of his shots last season, which helped offset his 41.8% FT shooting, but this season he's just 44.8% from the field. That has crept up over the past week and he was scorching hot before shooting 1-of-8 vs. the Warriors on Sunday, so owners can rely on him rebuilding his lofty FG% in the coming weeks.
Mason Plumlee is another fascinating big man to have made the list. After shooting 65.9% last year he's suddenly lost the ability to score around the basket, and is at just 40.6% this season. It's even more inexplicable since he's taking the same number of shots from the same distance. He's chipping in just 4.5 rebounds and 0.7 blocks per game which isn't nearly enough to overcome his awful shooting, and fantasy owners should ignore him in all formats.
Joakim Noah's offense has also taken a dramatic tumble. His 8.1 points per game are the lowest since his 2008-09 season, and he's making a career-low 43.3% of his 7.4 shot attempts per game. The heart of the problem is Noah's slow recovery from offseason knee surgery combined with the arrival of Pau Gasol, who has predictably cut into Noah's usage rate. The knee injury may be a bigger issue, as it's the only reasonable explanation for Noah's lousy 49.2 percent shooting in the restricted area this year -- he's getting more than half of his shots right at the rim, so shot selection isn't the issue, and he's simply missing easy buckets. He's also a combined 4-of-17 from the paint, a 23.5% rate that ranks toward the bottom of the league. Noah is versatile enough that he's still returning top-100 value, but he'll need to pick it up offensively to flirt with early-round value.
Nicolas Batum is another player who has struggled offensively this season. In his first 13 games, Batum has averaged a mere 8.9 points (lowest since 2008-09) while shooting a career-low 37.5 percent from the field. That includes a recent stretch when he went 0-of-20 from beyond the arc over the course of four games. There's nothing wrong with him physically, his playing time is holding steady and his usage rate is only slightly down from last season, so fantasy owners should view this as a prime buy-low opportunity.
Tyreke Evans made the bottom-50 list for true shooting percentage, but I pulled the list just prior to Tuesday’s games – Evans promptly scored 30 points on 14-of-24 shooting in a win vs. OKC, but his TS% still ranks 42nd from the bottom of the league.
After those depressing offensive performances it'll be a relief to check out some players who are thriving in 2014-15, starting with Gordon Hayward. In his fifth NBA season, the 24-year-old has fully embraced a go-to role with averages of 19.6 points, 1.8 triples, 5.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.6 turnovers per game. He's shooting 47.2% from the field and 79.6% at the FT line, and it all adds up to second-round fantasy value in 8-cat and 9-cat leagues. He's proven durable throughout his career and looks like a steal for owners who drafted him in the 40-50 range.
Jimmy Butler is another surprising player who has held first-round value in a huge role for Chicago this season, averaging career-highs in points (22.0), FG% and attempts (49.1% on 14.4 attempts), FT% and attempts (80.9% on 8.8 attempts), rebounds (5.9) and assists (3.4). He tends to have somewhat quieter games when Derrick Rose is healthy and handling the ball, but there’s no reason to think Butler will drop out of the top-25 unless he goes through a prolonged slump.
Other breakout players with sustainable outlooks include:
Kyle Korver – KK is making 3.0 triples on ridiculous 57.8 percent shooting beyond the arc.
Terrence Jones – His brilliant start has been short-circuited by nerve damage in his leg, but he should return to top-40 production once healthy.
Jared Sullinger – The Celts’ third-year PF is averaging career-highs across the board with 16.4 points, 1.3 triples, 8.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.5 steals and 0.8 blocks, good enough for top-40 value.
Markieff Morris – Owners who gambled on Markieff in the middle rounds are being richly rewarded with solid across-the-board production that includes 14.8 points, 6.4 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.9 blocks.
Andrew Bogut – His 7.6 points per game allow him to fly under the radar, but Bogut is a terrific No. 2 fantasy center with averages of 9.3 boards, 3.2 dimes, 0.8 steals and 2.2 blocks. He’s shooting 57.1% from the field and his 52.9% FT shooting isn’t too painful since he attempts just one freebie per game.
Brandon Knight – Knight has been, by far, the most reliable fantasy player for the Bucks under Jason Kidd. His starting job is secure and he’s blowing away his preseason ADP.
Danny Green – Quietly averaging 10.7 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.7 assists while shooting 45.5% on FGs and 100% at the FT line, but his real value lies in 2.2 triples, 1.2 steals and 1.3 blocks per game.
Tobias Harris – Health has always been the big issue for Tobias, and so far he’s racking up big numbers in 35.8 minutes per game, while only missing two games with a mild calf injury.
Courtney Lee – C-Lee has cooled off after a ridiculous start to the season, but he’s still posting quietly well-rounded lines as an unquestioned starter for Memphis. He should be owned in all leagues, particularly in roto.
Tyson Chandler deserves to be highlighted for his phenomenal start this year. Without fanfare he's averaging 11.3 points (69% FGs, 76% FTs), 11.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.6 steals and 1.5 blocks per game. He doesn't turn the ball over much and his dominance in typical 'big man' categories has pegged him to top-20 value at this early stage in the season.
And finally…Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is the most well-known metric to sum up a player's per-minute efficiency with a single number. As such, it's worth quickly mentioning those players who currently lead the league in PER (the league average is 15.0). Anthony Davis unsurprisingly leads the way with a ludicrous PER of 33.4, followed by Stephen Curry (28.7) and DeMarcus Cousins (28.0). After them we find our first surprise in Mavericks backup C Brandan Wright (27.7), who is followed by Chris Paul (27.3), Marreese Speights (27.1) and James Harden (25.1). The top-12 is rounded out by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Tyson Chandler, Dirk Nowitzki and Marc Gasol.
