Use It or Lose It
The MVP talk is all the rage these days. James Harden beat up LeBron James on national TV, and no that's not why he is suspended tonight. With Anthony Davis going down, it’s looking like a two-horse race for MVP: Harden and Stephen Curry. Although, maybe LeBron James can get really hot to close.
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As much as I love Stephen Curry, Harden has to be the favorite. Curry has so much help this year and his minutes have actually gone down while no player in the NBA has more minutes than Harden this season. Curry’s scoring efficiency is almost the same this year and his usage rate is only 0.2 higher than last season, too. In other words, he’s not that much better that last year. Although, Stephen’s defensive numbers have really improved:
He’s terrific, but I think we have to appreciate how much Draymond Green and Klay Thompson have improved this season on the help. Plus, Harrison Barnes has really turned it around while Andrew Bogut staying relatively healthy also helps. Oh and Steve Kerr is up there for coach of the year, too.
All that said, it’s Harden for me by a lot and he didn't “move into first for MVP” like many have been saying. He was already there. On the surface, Harden is extremely close to putting up a 27-point, six-board, seven-dime per-game average on 60 true shooting percentage this season at 27.1 points, 5.8 boards and 6.9 assists on 60.9 true shooting. In the history of the NBA, that has only been done three times (Michael Jordan, LeBron James and Larry Bird). He’s also on pace to be the third player to have an assist percentage of 34 percent, a usage rate of 30 percent, and a true shooting percentage above 60 (Michael and LeBron).
Breaking it down a step further, The Beard is carrying the offense. Harden is the isolation king. He ranks first in the NBA for isolation plays and he's also one of just three players this season to have 13 percent of his plays come from ISO and turn in a PPP (points per play) to come in over 1.05 (Durant, Irving). That's even more impressive when you take into account Harden has a league-leading 25.9 percent of his plays coming in ISO. Stud. We all know basketball is a team game, so to take that many shots by himself is crazy.
When Harden is off the court, the Rockets have a negative 4.1 net rating. There is not a single Rocket on the team with a negative net rating when he's off the court, which is crazy. Plus, the Warriors still have a positive net rating when Curry is off the court, so they're still a winning team without him. Harden also ranks first in the NBA for VORP (value over replacement player, which is basically basketball's version of WAR for baseball). The Rockets are making an awesome charge right now because Terrence Jones is basically Draymond Greening, so it's even possible Houston catches Golden State in the standings. They would be sliding like nobody's business without Harden and we'll get to see how valuable he is tonight against the Hawks when he's not there.
Get to Pizza Guys
Pizza Guy is ridiculous with his toppings. If you wanted to make a case for MVP in just the second half alone, Isaiah Thomas would be on the ballot. The Celtics have won three of their last four games — the loss was to Golden State in a close game — and they’re playing well despite very little frontcourt depth. As far as scoring efficiency goes, he’s elite considering his usage. With Boston, IT has a usage rate of 33.8 to go with his 55.7 true shooting percentage. The only other players in the NBA to post a usage rate greater than 30 and a true shooting percentage higher than 55 are James Harden and LeBron James this season (minimum two games).
He put up a 39.4 usage rate on Friday, which is basically a mini Russell Westbrook. Plus he has an assist percentage of 34.9, which shows how much he is looking to dish. Considering Thomas' contract is descending, Ainge stole him from Phoenix -- he’s an underrated GM, by the way. Thomas has a good chance to be a top-25 producer the rest of the way. He's the Usage Rate poster child.
High top won't fade
Nerlens Noel is rollin' right now. Since the break, he's averaged 12.7 points, 8.4 boards, 2.1 assists, 1.7 steals, 3.3 blocks and 2.1 turnovers on 49.2 percent from the field and 77.5 percent from the line. Considering he was at just 42.9 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from the line in his 2014 games this season, that's a metamorphosis that even Kafka could be proud of. Ready, Kafka? So how did we get here? (props if you get the reference, by the way)
His work at the line is inexplicable. He somehow has increased his attempts and also increased his percentages. Based on his numbers at Kentucky, summer league and his numbers in the NBA, anyone would have told you he would have been below 70 percent this year. He's at 83.3 percent from the line in his last five. This has fluke written all over it, but NN has a nice stroke at least. He's probably going to be around 70 percent the rest of the way, which is optimistic.
Besides the free throws, his scoring efficiency is up from the field too. Here's a look at his shot chart along with his shot types since the break:
Noel is singing like a caroler from inside the restricted area, making 70.4 percent. That's elite for a big man, which is even better considering that's 46 percent of his shots. However, Noel sits at 8.0 percentile as a post-up man this season. In other words, he can't post up. He's also 25.0 percentile as a roll man and most of that came with Michael Carter-Williams, who is a solid PNR guy as a passer -- horrible as a shooter. He is at 60 percentile for putbacks, but that is only his 12.1 percent of his shot total.
It's stunning how much Noel's stats scream fluke. I would try to sell high in a fantasy league especially since his schedule is not great with fewer games than most teams in April. Still, you should be asking for a lot in return.
Mess with the Bulls
The Bulls are in deep trouble right now. Jimmy Butler is expected to miss the next 3-6 weeks with a strain in his ulnar ligament in his left elbow. Derrick Rose is likely out all of March and possibly longer while Taj Gibson is out for at least three games and maybe more. On the surface, that’s over 100 minutes per game without those guys based on their playing time right before their injuries. What’s more, Jimmy has a 21.6 usage rate in all of those minutes and D-Rose has a 30.9, so where the heck is all of their scoring production going to come from on the outside?
Before we address the possibility of adding someone, what are they going to do now?
Let’s start with point guard. In the last three games, all 144 of the point guard minutes have gone to Aaron Brooks or Kirk Hinrich. Additionally, they played next to each other for 14 minutes. Coach Tom Thibodeau said last week that he doesn’t think that Hinrich can play more than 30 minutes right now, which adds up because he’s played just 23 minutes per game since Rose went down. That means we’re probably only looking at maybe eight minutes per game of a Brooks-Hinrich lineup. As far as production goes, we’ve all seen that Hinrich doesn’t provide much and obviously his 0-of-7 from the field on Sunday is pretty much all you need to know there. Aaron Brooks has also been a disaster, making just 25.0 percent from the field in his last three. However, he is taking 15 shots per game, so the opportunity is still too good to pass up at around 31-33 minutes per game.
OK, so there is a Hinrich-Brooks backcourt at around eight minutes, that means we still need to figure out how they’re going to get 88 minutes out of the wing (40 at SG and 48 at SF). Tony Snell has played a 41 minutes in a game before and there is a very legit chance of him soaking up that entire 40 minute allotment. Can he do anything with that playing time, though?
I think he is capable, especially based on how he’s played lately. In his last 17 games, he posted a 16.2 usage rate, which is up from 11.2 in his first 33 games. Yes, a 16.2 usage rate doesn’t sound like a lot, but it’s pretty high for a 3-point shooter. In fact, Kyle Korver has a usage rate of 14.2 this season and Trevor Ariza is also just a shade above that at 16.8. To take it a step further, Snell’s usage rate was at 17.3 in the last three games. On top of that, he's put up an unsustainable 72.7 effective field goal percentage in his last 10 games. Even if he can get his eFG% to 62-ish, that should be good enough to own him.
OK, so his averages have jumped up in his last four and beyond, averaging 13.8 points, 4.3 boards 1.0 assists, 0.3 steals and 2.8 treys. Clearly the lack of defense hurts because that’s good for seventh-round value in standard leagues. As mentioned, can he really make his usage climb to 18? Here's a look at his shot breakdown based on how many dribbles he's taking:
The NBA hasn't kept track of this stat for too long, but a player taking 69 percent of his shots without a dribble almost has no chance to keep his usage rate above 18. He is going to have a tough time really thriving as a scorer from inside the arc. Hey, he was even just 43.6 percent on his two-pointers in summer league last year. That's not good. Snell is going to get a lot of minutes, which is why he should have a good impact in fantasy. Still, I hope you didn't add him to your team to be a top-50 guy. It's not happening unless he gets better magically or goes Jimmy Butler 2.0.
If Snell does get those remaining minutes at SG (in some form), that means we still have three positions to log 48 minutes. Mike Dunleavy is almost certainly going to lock up the lion's share of the remaining minutes on the wing. However, he's really battled ankle issues in the past month and it's pretty clear he maxes out at 30-32 minutes per game. Still, Dunleavy should see a higher usage rate and should be a top 100-125 guy in most leagues. His per-game minutes are down, though. It wouldn't surprise me to see him put up better fantasy numbers than Snell.
This leads to the biggest question of them all from a minutes perspective for those remaining 16-18 minutes on the wing. One would think it has to be Nikola Mirotic getting those, because who else? Unless the Bulls somehow do a three-guard lineup with E'Twaun Moore, they're pretty much out of options. If you've been following the Bulls all year, a big question is if coach Thibs will play Mirotic at the three. Well, in the last two games, he's only played two minutes at small forward. However, he did play all 12 of his minutes at small forward on Wednesday, so Thibs hasn't cooled on it. It's probably fair to say he has 10 of those minutes at small forward going his way.
As far as his production when he plays, Mirotic is eatin' like he's at a buffet. There are six players in the NBA to play in all of their team's last three games and log at least 20 minutes per game with a usage rate of at least 32: Mirotic, Brook Lopez, Isaiah Thomas, Gordon Hayward, Dwyane Wade and Dennis Schroder. That's elite status and Mirotic also has the highest eFG% of those guys, too. If Thibs unleashes him, he could be a top-40 guy for fantasy leagues.
Plus, the Bulls are going to have to figure out how to back up Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah. A best-case scenario would be Gasol and Noah playing 70 minutes per game, which means there's still 26 minutes up for grabs for the 96 minutes up front. That's also another great point for Mirotic. As for Noah, he's probably going to be the point-forward a lot, which should really help his assists. There is a good chance he'll be a triple-double guy. We'll see a little bit of Nazr Mohammed to help out, too.
The Bulls have to sign someone. There are just too many holes, so chances are they sign a guard or a power forward. Nate Robinson is probably the favorite considering his previous run with the Bulls. He's not a fantasy option right now, of course. It's going to be a wild ride to see how this shakes out, but fantasy owners just have to pay attention because opportunity is 80 percent of what this game is all about.
Quick Hits:
John Wall - He's doing too much right now. Since the break, only 16 percent of his shots have come off 0-1 dribbles. That's awful for even someone like Russell Westbrook, who has 0-1 dribble shots accounting for 26 percent of his shot total on the season. In other words, he needs a lot of help. His efficiency was higher with Beal, so maybe that will help.
Ed Davis - Since the break, he's leading the NBA in efficiency among players with at least 24 minutes per game and it's not even close. Davis boasts a 75.8 eFG% and has a 9.1 percent lead on the next-best guy (Rudy Gobert). He's earning minutes and it's not a surprise. He was always rough around the edges in his Toronto days and he's really embracing his role. Plus, he's been a heck of a lot better on PNR.
Tayshaun Prince - He's dead last among players who have logged 24 minutes per game since the break. This should surprise nobody.
Chris Paul passed Stephen Curry for offensive efficiency rating. He did it without Blake Griffin. We have to give CP3 his props, you guys.
Rudy Gobert - The Jazz are first in defensive efficiency since the break at 87.1, which crushed the second-place Hawks at 92.8. They were dead last in that category last season. Gobert is sweeping the nation.
