Illini have opportunity at home vs. Penn State

The Illini got their best win of the season on Tuesday in Evanston and now return home for a huge game against the Penn State Nittany Lions.

The schedule for Illinois softens up a bit from this point forward and it is conceivable that Illinois could be favored in five of its final six games, beginning with this one on Saturday afternoon.

The win on Tuesday was the first win for Illinois in a non-overtime game on the road in two years, the first road win of the season and snapped a nine-game road skid overall. They are looking for their first back to back wins in conference play since March 4 of 2015.

Although that is a scary thought, this team definitely has an opportunity to make a run down the stretch, but they have little margin for error and another home loss may make it impossible to make an NCAA tournament without a Big Ten tourney run.

Here’s a look at the particulars.

Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

SETTING THE STAGE

Illinois (14-11, 4-8) vs. Penn State (13-12, 5-7)

Feb. 11, 2017 // 1 p.m. CT // Champaign, Ill. // State Farm Center (15,544)

TV: BTN – Cory Provus (Play-By-Play), Shon Morris (Analyst) // Internet Stream: BTN2Go.com

Radio: Fighting Illini Sports Network – Brian Barnhart (Play-By-Play), Deon Thomas (Analyst)

Satellite Radio: Sirius – 135, XM – 195

THINGS TO KNOW

*Following Tuesday’s 68-61 win at Northwestern, Illinois returns to Champaign for its final weekend home game this season, hosting Penn State on Saturday afternoon at State Farm Center (1 p.m. CT, BTN). Illinois is looking to win consecutive games in conference play for the first time since closing out its 2015 home schedule with victories over Northwestern (86-60, Feb. 25, 2015) and Nebraska (69-57, March 4, 2015).

*Illinois’ defense has allowed opponents an average of only 62.0 points on 37.4 percent shooting from the field and 32.3 percent 3-point shooting over the last three games.

*Currently eighth on the Fighting Illini career scoring chart with 1,665 points, senior Malcolm Hill enters Saturday just 25 points away seventh place on the UI’s all-time list, and 35 points shy of becoming the seventh Illini ever to reach the 1,700-point marker.

*Senior Maverick Morgan has scored in double figures 13 times in the last 15 games – including a career high tying five straight heading into Saturday – averaging 12.3 points on 56.8 percent shooting.

*Freshman Kipper Nichols is averaging 9.3 points and 4.3 rebounds while shooting 60.9 percent in 19.3 minutes per game over the last four contests.

*The Fighting Illini won their first road game of the season and snapped a nine-game road skid overall on Tuesday.

*Penn State has captured each of the last two meetings with the Illini, both in University Park. Twelve of the last 16 meetings between the teams have been decided by five or fewer points. . The Nittany Lions defeated the Illini, 71-67, Jan. 28 in the Bryce Jordan Center.

*Four players are averaging in double figures for Penn State, led by Shep Garner (12.6 ppg) and Tony Carr (12.3). Three freshmen are among the top five scorers and are each of top-three rebounders. Tony Carr is the team's leading scorer in Big Ten action with 13.3 ppg after averaging 18.0 points and 7.0 assists over the last three games. His 14 assists at Indiana are tied for second-most in a game in program history.

*With the win over Maryland, Penn State improved to 10-0 when keeping its opponents below 70 points and 8-0 when holding opponents under 40 percent shooting from the field

KEYS TO THE GAME

Shot selection – Penn State defends well, 6th in the conference in defensive efficiency. They force opponents into tough 2’s and defend the rim. Illinois has been known to take themselves out of good runs and force bad and quick shots that are contested, leading to runs on the other end. They have to make good decisions and begin to understand a good shot when they see it. Northwestern was a step in the right direction, but there were still long scoring droughts filled with bad shots.

Turnovers and transition defense– The Lions rely on turnovers, forcing them on over 20% of possessions in Big Ten play for 2nd in the league. The Lions can’t really score, but they defend well and like to turn offense into defense. They get turnovers on almost 21% of opponent’s possessions in Big Ten play, and they shot 20% lower from the floor if they can’t get a shot in the first 10 seconds of a possession. They love transition 3’s and shoot 46% from 3 in transition and 31% after that. They get 30% of their offense in the first 10 seconds of the possession and after that are extremely inefficient, as you would expect a young team to be.

Second chance points – Penn State is not a very good rebounding team, they struggle to rebound on the defensive end and do not get enough offensive rebounds. It has been an Achilles heel for them. Illinois usually does a good job on the glass, but they have to finish when they get a chance and they need to keep the Lions like Mike Watkins off the glass. Watkins has twice as many putbacks as any Illinois player.

PREDICTION

Eventually Illinois has to win 2 conference games in a row. Penn State hasn’t been very good on the road, only winning at Rutgers in conference play. Illinois is a 5-point favorite, and expect a close game that the veteran Illini pull out down the stretch. 70-65 is the final.