Hitting Projections Review
Here’s the first of two columns looking at back at my hitting projections and how things ended up. I’ll be doing the top 10 for each position and other notables, starting with the catchers, first basemen, second basemen and third basemen today.
Catchers
1. Joe Mauer - Twins
Projection: .330/.414/.474, 13 HR, 84 R, 77 RBI, 4 SB in 576 AB
2014 stats: .277/.361/.371, 4 HR, 60 R, 55 RBI, 3 SB in 455 AB
My theory was that Mauer would be a much better bet than usual to stay healthy while playing first base. However, he suffered a strained oblique that limited him to 120 games, and he had a dreadful first half even when healthy. With no catcher eligibility left, he’ll enter next year as a third-tier first baseman, but he could be a pretty good value pick even so.
2. Carlos Santana - Indians
Projection: .282/.384/.495, 27 HR, 85 R, 95 RBI. 4 SB in 554 AB
2014 stats: .231/.365/.427, 27 HR, 68 R, 85 RBI, 5 SB in 541 AB
I got gutsy here with Santana’s average, projecting him to exceed his previous career high of .268. The horrible start ruined any chance of that happening -- he was hitting .136 through May 10 -- but he hit .266/.384/.488 in 102 games over the final four months of the season.
3. Buster Posey - Giants
Projection: .306/.384/.492, 20 HR, 69 R, 83 RBI, 1 SB in 500 AB
2014 stats: .311/.364/.490, 22 HR, 72 R, 89 RBI, 0 SB in 547 AB
4. Wilin Rosario - Rockies
Projection: .275/.311/.491, 24 HR, 65 R, 85 RBI, 3 SB in 466 AB
2014 stats: .267/.305/.435, 13 HR, 46 R, 55 RBI, 2 SB in 382 AB
Whether it was the left hand/wrist problems or the viral infection that put him on the DL in May, Rosario didn’t show his usual power. The Rockies might again seek to replace him at catcher this winter -- they made a run at Brian McCann last year -- but he needs to step it back up offensively if he’s going to be useful anywhere else.
5. Brian McCann - Yankees
Projection: .249/.338/.463, 28 HR, 69 R, 88 RBI, 2 SB in 477 AB
2014 stats: .232/.286/.406, 23 HR, 57 R, 75 RBI, 0 SB in 495 AB
It was no surprise that McCann hit 19 homers using the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium. Too bad he hit a total of four on the road.
6. Salvador Perez - Royals
Projection: .303/.335/.466, 16 HR, 58 R, 72 RBI, 0 SB in 485 AB
2014 stats: .260/.289/.403, 17 HR, 57 R, 70 RBI, 1 SB in 578 AB
Ned Yost wore him down. Perez caught more innings this year (1,248) than any player since Jason Kendall in 2008. He hit .283/.329/.437 in the first half and .229/.236/.360 afterwards.
7. Yadier Molina - Cardinals
Projection: .294/.345/.431, 13 HR, 62 R, 71 RBI, 4 SB in 490 AB
2014 stats: .282/.333/.386, 7 HR, 40 R, 38 RBI, 1 SB in 404 AB
8. Matt Wieters - Orioles
Projection: .262/.329/.454, 23 HR, 63 R, 75 RBI, 1 SB in 504 AB
2014 stats: .308/.339/.500, 5 HR, 13 R, 18 RBI, 0 SB in 104 AB
9. Jonathan Lucroy - Brewers
Projection: .283/.337/.443, 15 HR, 58 R, 67 RBI, 4 SB in 474 AB
2014 stats: .301/.373/.465, 13 HR, 73 R, 69 RBI, 4 SB in 585 AB
Lucroy should have blown away by RBI projection with those extra 111 at-bats and his 66 extra-base hits. However, he slugged .483 with the bases empty, .438 with men on and .382 with RISP. He did do better in runs scored, a function of his time spent batting third and second. I had him penciled in as a No. 5 hitter.
10. Wilson Ramos - Nationals
Projection: .281/.334/.464, 18 HR, 56 R, 67 RBI, 1 SB in 442 AB
2014 stats: .267/.299/.399, 11 HR, 32 R, 47 RBI, 0 SB in 341 AB
There’s no doubt what sapped Ramos’ power; it was the broken hamate bone he suffered on Opening Day. Eight of his 11 homers came in August and September.
11. Evan Gattis - Braves
Projection: .246/.310/.459, 21 HR, 54 R, 68 RBI, 1 SB in 403 AB
2014 stats: .263/.317/.493, 22 HR, 41 R, 52 RBI, 0 SB in 369 AB
16. Yan Gomes - Indians
Projection: .245/.306/.405, 14 HR, 55 R, 54 RBI, 2 SB in 425 AB
2014 stats: .278/.313/.472, 21 HR, 61 R, 74 RBI, 0 SB in 485 AB
I thought Gomes’ .294 average in 2013 was pretty fluky. Apparently not.
18. Russell Martin - Pirates
Projection: .239/.335/.378, 13 HR, 48 R, 49 RBI, 7 SB in 423 AB
2014 stats: .290/.402/.430, 11 HR, 45 R, 67 RBI, 4 SB in 379 AB
21. Devin Mesoraco - Reds
Projection: .249/.317/.405, 13 HR, 40 R, 48 RBI, 1 SB in 378 AB
2014 stats: .272/.359/.534, 25 HR, 54 R, 80 RBI, 1 SB in 384 AB
Projected Mesoraco to slug .421 in 2012. He came in at .352. Projected him to slug .421 again in 2013. He came in at .362. What’s a guy to do?
24. Travis d’Arnaud - Mets
Projection: .257/.328/.403, 11 HR, 38 R, 44 RBI, 1 SB in 362 AB
2014 stats: .242/.302/.416, 13 HR, 48 R, 41 RBI, 1 SB in 385 AB
27. Mike Zunino - Mariners
Projection: .232/.300/.385, 13 HR, 44 R, 44 RBI, 2 SB in 392 AB
2014 stats: .199/.254/.404, 22 HR, 51 R, 60 RBI, 0 SB in 438 AB
Looking back now, I’m just not sure what I was thinking projecting Zunino to hit as high as .232. Nice pop, though.
First basemen
1. Paul Goldschmidt - Diamondbacks
Projection: .293/.390/.527, 32 HR, 102 R, 104 RBI, 12 SB in 588 AB
2014 stats: .300/.396/.542, 19 HR, 75 R, 69 RBI, 9 SB in 406 AB
2. Prince Fielder - Rangers
Projection: .287/.388/.528, 37 HR, 98 R, 116 RBI, 1 SB in 602 AB
2014 stats: .247/.360/.360, 3 HR, 19 R, 16 RBI, 0 SB in 150 AB
3. Chris Davis - Orioles
Projection: .270/.347/.533, 39 HR, 88 R, 117 RBI, 2 SB in 574 AB
2014 stats: .196/.300/.404, 26 HR, 65 R, 72 RBI, 2 SB in 450 AB
Davis’s homer total was cut in half, from 53 to 26. Also, his doubles total went from 42 to 16. I don’t think he’s any sort of lost cause, even after the stupid Adderall suspension, but I do wonder if the Orioles will bring him back. He’d be a worse bounce-back candidate next year practically anywhere else.
4. Joey Votto - Reds
Projection: .301/.443/.506, 26 HR, 95 R, 89 RBI, 7 SB in 561 AB
2014 stats: .255/.390/.409, 6 HR, 32 R, 23 RBI, 1 SB in 220 AB
5. Freddie Freeman - Braves
Projection: .295/.371/.503, 28 HR, 93 R, 100 RBI, 2 SB in 590 AB
2014 stats: .288/.386/.461, 18 HR, 93 R, 78 RBI, 3 SB in 607 AB
Freeman hit 21, 23 and 23 homers in his first three full seasons before dipping to 18 this year. However, his 43 doubles were 10 more than he had ever hit before, suggesting the home run plunge was an aberration.
6. Edwin Encarnacion - Blue Jays
Projection: .281/.368/.525, 34 HR, 88 R, 102 RBI, 6 SB in 551 AB
2014 stats: .268/.354/.547, 34 HR, 75 R, 98 RBI, 2 SB in 477 AB
7. Albert Pujols - Angels
Projection: .292/.362/.496, 27 HR, 85 R, 95 RBI, 4 SB in 568 AB
2014 stats: .272/.324/.466, 28 HR, 89 R, 105 RBI, 5 SB in 633 AB
8. Adrian Gonzalez - Dodgers
Projection: .301/.355/.480, 24 HR, 78 R, 101 RBI, 0 SB in 579 AB
2014 stats: .276/.335/.482, 27 HR, 83 R, 116 RBI, 1 SB in 591 AB
9. Allen Craig - Cardinals/Red Sox
Projection: .303/.355/.503, 21 HR, 73 R, 89 RBI, 3 SB in 479 AB
2014 stats: .215/.279/.315, 8 HR, 41 R, 46 RBI, 2 SB in 461 AB
Just wow. As bad as Davis was, he still managed 26 homers and 72 RBI. Craig racked up 461 at-bats, just 18 shy of his projection, and finished eight homers. In 2012, he had 92 RBI and 89 strikeouts. In 2013, he had 97 RBI and 100 strikeouts. In 2014, he had 46 RBI and 113 strikeouts. I have no idea whether he’s going to come back from this or not.
10. Mark Trumbo - Diamondbacks
Projection: .255/.311/.502, 35 HR, 82 R, 105 RBI, 6 SB in 576 AB
2014 stats: .235/.293/.415, 14 HR, 37 R, 61 RBI, 2 SB in 328 AB
Trumbo had five homers in his first nine games and five in his last seven. In between, he had four in 72 games.
11. Eric Hosmer - Royals
Projection: .290/.356/.444, 18 HR, 82 R, 87 RBI, 9 SB in 601 AB
2014 stats: .270/.318/.398, 9 HR, 54 R, 58 RBI, 4 SB in 503 AB
Hosmer saved it all for October. He’s such a terribly frustrating player. I’ll probably just end up giving him the same sort of projection I did this year.
13. Jose Abreu - White Sox
Projection: .260/.349/.461, 29 HR, 80 R, 92 RBI, 2 SB in 566 AB
2014 stats: .317/.383/.581, 36 HR, 80 R, 107 RBI, 3 SB in 556 AB
The .317 average was a really nice surprise. What I worry about is that Abreu hit so many more grounders (46%) than flyballs (31%). He certainly has the pure power to hit 36 homers again, but it’s going to be really, really hard to do if he again hits so few flies. He led the majors this year by homering on 26.9 percent of his fly balls. Giancarlo Stanton was next at 25.5. Davis was third at 22.6.
14. Justin Morneau - Rockies
Projection: .284/.345/.479, 22 HR, 70 R, 86 RBI, 0 SB in 535 AB
2014 stats: .319/.364/.496, 17 HR, 62 R, 82 RBI, 0 SB in 502 AB
15. Anthony Rizzo - Cubs
Projection: .269/.347/.464, 26 HR, 78 R, 76 RBI, 5 SB in 573 AB
2014 stats: .286/.386/.527, 32 HR, 89 R, 78 RBI. 5 SB in 524 AB
I should have been higher on Rizzo, but I thought the weakness surrounding him in the Cubs lineup would hold him back, not only when it came to runs and RBI, but also by causing him to be pitched around if he did break through. As it turned out, though, the Cubs offense wasn’t as bad as I expected.
17. Brandon Moss - Athletics
Projection: .252/.326/.485, 29 HR, 72 R, 87 RBI, 3 SB in 485 AB
2014 stats: .234/.334/.438, 25 HR, 70 R, 81 RBI, 1 SB in 500 AB
22. Ryan Howard - Phillies
Projection: .245/.323/.450, 26 HR, 66 R, 88 RBI, 0 SB in 493 AB
2014 stats: .223/.310/.380, 23 HR, 65 R, 95 RBI, 0 SB in 569 AB
.380? Howard once slugged as high as .659 in a season. Craig was the only worse offensive first baseman among batting-title qualifiers this year.
24. Adam LaRoche - Nationals
Projection: .259/.342/.444, 21 HR, 63 R, 78 RBI, 1 SB in 498 AB
2014 stats: .259/.362/.455, 26 HR, 73 R, 92 RBI, 3 SB in 494 AB
27. Mark Teixeira - Yankees
Projection: .235/.343/.423, 24 HR, 76 R, 81 RBI, 2 SB in 532 AB
2014 stats: .216/.313/.398, 22 HR, 56 R, 62 RBI, 1 SB in 440 AB
28. Chris Carter - Astros
Projection: .233/.323/.449, 27 HR, 66 R, 80 RBI, 3 SB in 514 AB
2014 stats: .227/.308/.491, 37 HR, 68 R, 88 RBI, 5 SB in 507 AB
43. Jonathan Singleton - Astros
Projection: .220/.323/.382, 9 HR, 29 R, 30 RBI, 2 SB in 254 AB
2014 stats: .168/.285/.335, 13 HR, 42 R, 44 RBI, 2 SB in 310 AB
Designated hitters
1. David Ortiz - Red Sox
Projection: .291/.384/.522, 27 HR, 86 R, 100 RBI, 1 SB in 515 AB
2014 stats: .263/.355/.517, 35 HR, 59 R, 104 RBI, 0 SB in 518 AB
There’s no better illustration of how crappy Boston’s offense was this year than the fact that Ortiz was driven in just 24 times all year. Even this next guy here was driven in 48 times.
2. Billy Butler - Royals
Projection: .294/.370/.481, 25 HR, 73 R, 99 RBI, 1 SB in 582 AB
2014 stats: .271/.323/.379, 9 HR, 57 R, 66 RBI, 0 SB in 549 AB
It was hardly fair of him to wait until the postseason to record that stolen base.
3. Victor Martinez - Tigers
Projection: .293/.350/.435, 16 HR, 68 R, 91 RBI, 0 SB in 570 AB
2014 stats: .335/.409/.565, 32 HR, 87 R, 103 RBI, 3 SB in 561 AB
Martinez topped his career high in homers by seven (25 in 2007) and hit six more than he did in his previous two seasons combined. He should have driven in even more runs, but the Tigers for a .306 OBP from the two-hole and Miggy wasn’t quite Miggy in the third spot.
Second basemen
1. Jason Kipnis - Indians
Projection: .290/.368/.454, 18 HR, 83 R, 87 RBI, 25 SB in 573 AB
2014 stats: .240/.310/.330, 6 HR, 61 R, 41 RBI, 22 SB in 500 AB
It was probably (hopefully?) the strained oblique Kipnis suffered in May that ruined his power numbers, as he admitted months later that it was still affecting him.
2. Robinson Cano - Mariners
Projection: .297/.375/.495, 24 HR, 84 R, 91 RBI, 5 SB in 586 AB
2014 stats: .314/.382/.454, 14 HR, 77 R, 82 RBI, 10 SB in 595 AB
Cano hit 27 homers in road games between 2012-13, so one can’t just attribute the drop off in homers to the ballpark switch from Yankee Stadium to Safeco Park. This year, he actually hit nine of his 14 at Safeco, though his road average (.320) was a bit better than his home average (.308).
3. Dustin Pedroia - Red Sox
Projection: .292/.367/.431, 14 HR, 98 R, 77 RBI, 14 SB in 612 AB
2014 stats: .278/.337/.376, 7 HR, 72 R, 53 RBI, 6 SB in 551 AB
It turned out that Pedroia’s thumb problems lingered into 2014. Hopefully, they’re fixed now after surgery. However, at 31, he’s at the age when he should be starting to exit his prime.
4. Ian Kinsler - Tigers
Projection: .281/.348/.426, 15 HR, 99 R, 63 RBI, 16 SB in 580 AB
2014 stats: .275/.307/.420, 17 HR, 100 R, 92 RBI, 15 SB in 684 AB
5. Matt Carpenter - Cardinals
Projection: .293/.374/.441, 13 HR, 101 R, 62 RBI, 5 SB in 597 AB
2014 stats: .272/.375/.375, 8 HR, 99 R, 59 RBI, 5 SB in 595 AB
6. Martin Prado - Diamondbacks/Yankees
Projection: .298/.351/.449, 15 HR, 75 R, 81 RBI, 6 SB in 581 AB
2014 stats: .282/.321/.412, 12 HR, 62 R, 58 RBI, 3 SB in 536 AB
7. Jose Altuve - Astros
Projection: .293/.334/.395, 7 HR, 67 R, 59 RBI, 27 SB in 597 AB
2014 stats: .341/.377/.453, 7 HR, 85 R, 59 RBI, 56 SB in 660 AB
Technically, I did project Altuve for a career high in batting average (.290 in 2012). So that’s something. I thought they steal total would drop off after he was caught a league-high 13 times against 35 successes last year. Instead, he was a terror on the basepaths, especially in the first half (37 steals the first three months, 19 the last three).
8. Aaron Hill - Diamondbacks
Projection: .273/.331/.449, 20 HR, 87 R, 69 RBI, 9 SB in 564 AB
2014 stats: .244/.287/.367, 10 HR, 52 R, 60 RBI, 4 SB in 501 AB
Consistency has never been Hill’s strong suit. His lifetime average is .270, but in the last five years, he’s hit above .290 twice and below .250 three times. His career slugging percentage is .427, but he’s never finished between .400 and .450 in any of his 10 seasons.
9. Brandon Phillips - Reds
Projection: .268/.317/.415, 19 HR, 87 R, 66 RBI, 10 SB in 593 AB
2014 stats: .266/.306/.372, 8 HR, 44 R, 51 RBI, 7 SB in 462 AB
10. Howie Kendrick - Angels
Projection: .296/.337/.435, 13 HR, 61 R, 62 RBI, 11 SB in 517 AB
2014 stats: .293/.347/.397, 7 HR, 85 R, 75 RBI, 14 SB in 617 AB
Kendrick opened last season batting behind Raul Ibanez, which is why I was pretty pessimistic on the run and RBI numbers. He got to hit fourth a lot late with Josh Hamilton out and amassed 20 runs scored and 28 RBI in 39 games there. Overall, he had 160 R+RBI in 157 games. In 2013, it was 109 in 122 games. In 2012, it was 120 in 147 games.
11. Kolten Wong - Cardinals
Projection: .282/.338/.407, 10 HR, 71 R, 55 RBI, 18 SB in 531 AB
2014 stats: .249/.292/.388, 12 HR, 52 R, 42 RBI, 20 SB in 402 AB
I was off on Wong for this year, but 12 homers and 20 steals for a 23-year-old who played in just 113 games… that’s pretty promising.
12. Daniel Murphy - Mets
Projection: .285/.331/.415, 11 HR, 75 R, 52 RBI, 13 SB in 554 AB
2014 stats: .289/.332/.403, 9 HR, 79 R, 57 RBI, 13 SB in 596 AB
13. Chase Utley - Phillies
Projection: .264/.358/.436, 18 HR, 71 R, 65 RBI, 10 SB in 473 AB
2014 stats: .270/.339/.407, 11 HR, 74 R, 78 RBI, 10 SB in 589 AB
That Utley was healthy enough to play 155 games was a big surprise. He had played in 115, 103, 83 and 131 games the previous four years. Unfortunately, he had his worst offensive season since 2004.
14. Dustin Ackley - Mariners
Projection: .280/.352/.412, 11 HR, 71 R, 58 RBI, 10 SB in 546 AB
2014 stats: .245/.293/.398, 14 HR, 64 R, 65 RBI, 8 SB in 502 AB
15. Brian Dozier - Twins
Projection: .255/.322/.399, 16 HR, 80 R, 61 RBI, 13 SB in 576 AB
2014 stats: .242/.345/.416, 23 HR, 112 R, 71 RBI, 21 SB in 598 AB
Dozier could have rivaled Altuve in fantasy breakouts, but he had just five homers and five steals in the second half.
16. Jedd Gyorko - Padres
Projection: .254/.317/.438, 22 HR, 68 R, 74 RBI, 3 SB in 532 AB
2014 stats: .210/.280/.333, 10 HR, 37 R, 51 RBI, 3 SB in 400 AB
18. Neil Walker - Pirates
Projection: .267/.336/.424, 16 HR, 68 R, 61 RBI, 4 SB in 517 AB
2014 stats: .271/.342/.467, 23 HR, 74 R, 76 RBI, 2 SB in 512 AB
19. Anthony Rendon - Nationals
Projection: .282/.365/.440, 13 HR, 61 R, 55 RBI, 5 SB in 468 AB
2014 stats: .287/.351/.473, 21 HR, 111 R, 83 RBI, 17 SB in 613 AB
I thought Rendon would hit. I just didn’t think he’d be very valuable for fantasy purposes because of the injury risk and the likelihood that he’d spend the bulk of the season hitting low in the order (Ian Desmond hit second most of the spring). I also didn’t see him as a basestealer. Obviously, he’ll be in the top five next year, though I still wonder about his injury history.
22. D.J. LeMahieu - Rockies
Projection: .286/.329/.388, 5 HR, 54 R, 44 RBI, 13 SB in 479 AB
2014 stats: .267/.315/.348, 5 HR, 59 R, 42 RBI, 10 SB in 494 AB
25. Omar Infante - Royals
Projection: .265/.302/.375, 8 HR, 60 R, 51 RBI, 7 SB in 520 AB
2014 stats: .252/.295/.337, 6 HR, 50 R, 66 RBI, 9 SB in 528 AB
26. Emilio Bonifacio - Cubs/Braves
Projection: .259/.323/.343, 3 HR, 54 R, 27 RBI, 32 SB in 432 AB
2014 stats: .259/.305/.345, 3 HR, 47 R, 24 RBI, 26 SB in 394 AB
32. Jonathan Schoop - Orioles
Projection: .251/.313/.390, 8 HR, 37 R, 33 RBI, 3 SB in 287 AB
2014 stats: .209/.244/.354, 16 HR, 48 R, 45 RBI, 2 SB in 455 AB
Third basemen
1. Miguel Cabrera - Tigers
Projection: .317/.426/.561, 35 HR, 106 R, 114 RBI, 2 SB in 581 AB
2014 stats: .313/.371/.524, 25 HR, 101 R, 109 RBI, 1 SB in 611 AB
Cabrera hit 44 homers each of the previous two years before dropping to 25 this year. On the other hand, he hit a career-high 52 doubles, double his total from 2013. He probably hasn’t lost it just yet.
2. Adrian Beltre - Rangers
Projection: .295/.347/.505, 30 HR, 90 R, 111 RBI, 2 SB in 594 AB
2014 stats: .324/.388/.492, 19 HR, 79 R, 77 RBI, 1 SB in 549 AB
3. David Wright - Mets
Projection: .298/.384/.497, 25 HR, 88 R, 84 RBI, 14 SB in 561 AB
2014 stats: .269/.324/.374, 8 HR, 54 R, 63 RBI, 8 SB in 535 AB
Blame it on the shoulder. I expect that Wright will bounce back, and he might make for a really nice pick next year if the Mets follow through on bringing in the fences again (though they absolutely should not do so).
4. Evan Longoria - Rays
Projection: .273/.361/.505, 31 HR, 90 R, 101 RBI, 5 SB in 568 AB
2014 stats: .253/.320/.404, 22 HR, 83 R, 91 RBI, 5 SB in 624 AB
Because he played in 162 games and hit third or fourth the entire season, Longoria wasn’t as much of a fantasy disappointment as he otherwise could have been. His OPS ranged from .842 to .896 in his six previous seasons. At .724 this year, he ranked 43rd of the 77 players to qualify for the AL batting title. However, since he got 700 plate appearances and hit in the heart of the order, he finished 16th in the AL in RBI and 19th in runs scored.
5. Ryan Zimmerman - Nationals
Projection: .283/.354/.484, 26 HR, 84 R, 94 RBI, 3 SB in 552 AB
2014 stats: .280/.342/.449, 5 HR, 26 R, 38 RBI, 0 SB in 214 AB
6. Manny Machado - Orioles
Projection: .291/.337/.466, 19 HR, 88 R, 75 RBI, 7 SB in 573 AB
2014 stats: .278/.324/.431, 12 HR, 38 R, 32 RBI, 1 SB in 327 AB
7. Pablo Sandoval - Giants
Projection: .309/.367/.491, 19 HR, 71 R, 85 RBI, 3 SB in 538 AB
2014 stats: .279/.324/.415, 16 HR, 68 R, 73 RBI, 0 SB in 588 AB
8. Kyle Seager - Mariners
Projection: .287/.345/.460, 20 HR, 82 R, 78 RBI, 8 SB in 585 AB
2014 stats: .268/.334/.454, 25 HR, 71 R, 96 RBI, 7 SB in 590 AB
9. Josh Donaldson - Athletics
Projection: .272/.349/.448, 21 HR, 87 R, 80 RBI, 7 SB in 569 AB
2014 stats: .255/.342/.456, 29 HR, 93 R, 98 RBI, 8 SB in 608 AB
10. Aramis Ramirez - Brewers
Projection: .277/.350/.470, 22 HR, 71 R, 85 RBI, 2 SB in 506 AB
2014 stats: .285/.330/.427, 15 HR, 47 R, 66 RBI, 3 SB in 494 AB
11. Chase Headley - Padres/Yankees
Projection: .266/.357/.439, 20 HR, 77 R, 72 RBI, 12 SB in 560 AB
2014 stats: .243/.328/.372, 13 HR, 55 R, 49 RBI, 7 SB in 470 AB
12. Nolan Arenado - Rockies
Projection: .292/.329/.459, 16 HR, 68 R, 75 RBI, 3 SB in 545 AB
2014 stats: .287/.328/.500, 18 HR, 58 R, 61 RBI, 2 SB in 432 AB
The good news is that Arenado showed more power than expected. The bad is that all but two of those 18 homers came at Coors Field. He still hit a respectable .269/.310/.403 on the road, but the two homers in 201 at-bats wouldn’t seem to bode well for him taking another step forward to 25 homers next year.
14. Xander Bogaerts - Red Sox
Projection: .272/.349/.421, 16 HR, 76 R, 73 RBI, 6 SB in 556 AB
2014 stats: .240/.297/.362, 12 HR, 60 R, 46 RBI, 2 SB in 538 AB
Bogaerts hit .304/.397/.438 for two months and then .203/.236/.320 the rest of the way. I still have a ton of faith in his bat for the long term, but the Red Sox have handled him badly.
16. Pedro Alvarez - Pirates
Projection: .226/.294/.458, 34 HR, 72 R, 96 RBI, 1 SB in 563 AB
2014 stats: .231/.312/.405, 18 HR, 46 R, 56 RBI, 8 SB in 398 AB
17. Todd Frazier - Reds
Projection: .248/.317/.448, 24 HR, 68 R, 81 RBI, 7 SB in 536 AB
2014 stats: .273/.336/.459, 29 HR, 88 R, 80 RBI, 20 SB in 597 AB
19. Mike Moustakas - Royals
Projection: .265/.325/.448, 21 HR, 67 R, 72 RBI, 4 SB in 533 AB
2014 stats: .212/.271/.361, 15 HR, 45 R, 54 RBI, 1 SB in 457 AB
This would have been a good year to ignore any big spring numbers from hitters. Actually, that’s pretty much every year. I did elevate Moustakas a bit after his huge March, but that was partly because it appeared the Royals would finally platoon him (I had him at .263/.316/.438 in 480 AB when the magazine went to the printer in January).
21. Lonnie Chisenhall - Indians
Projection: .275/.330/.458, 16 HR, 56 R, 54 RBI, 2 SB in 400 AB
2014 stats: .280/.343/.427, 13 HR, 62 R, 59 RBI, 3 SB in 478 AB
23. David Freese - Angels
Projection: .258/.334/.407, 15 HR, 55 R, 55 RBI, 2 SB in 442 AB
2014 stats: .260/.321/.383, 10 HR, 53 R, 55 RBI, 1 SB in 462 AB
25. Casey McGehee - Marlins
Projection: .248/.314/.393, 14 HR, 49 R, 56 RBI, 1 SB in 484 AB
2014 stats: .287/.355/.357, 4 HR, 56 R, 76 RBI, 4 SB in 616 AB
30. Trevor Plouffe - Twins
Projection: .245/.311/.393, 13 HR, 45 R, 48 RBI, 3 SB in 425 AB
2014 stats: .258/.328/.423, 14 HR, 69 R, 80 RBI, 2 SB in 520 AB
Plouffe had a .691 OPS versus righties in 2012 and .663 in 2013, making him look like a platoon player miscast as a regular. This year, he came in at .739 against righties, a big step forward. I’m not necessarily betting on an encore, but for one season, he was quite good.
37. Wilmer Flores - Mets
Projection: .251/.295/.382, 5 HR, 20 R, 24 RBI, 1 SB in 207 AB
2014 stats: .251/.286/.378, 6 HR, 28 R, 29 RBI, 1 SB in 259 AB
38. Justin Turner - Dodgers
Projection: .263/.325/.368, 3 HR, 27 R, 23 RBI, 2 SB in 228 AB
2014 stats: .340/.404/.493, 7 HR, 46 R, 43 RBI, 6 SB in 288 AB
