Greg Cosell's Super Bowl Preview: Patriots' unpredictability makes it very tough on Falcons' D
Imagine what the Pittsburgh Steelers must have thought when they saw the New England Patriots’ game plan in the AFC championship game.
The Patriots played only 10 snaps of “10” personnel, with one running back and no tight ends (four receivers), in 16 regular season games. When the Steelers sat down to plan against the Patriots, they’d have no reason to prepare for the Patriots’ “10” personnel group.
Of course, the Patriots went heavy on “10” personnel as a foundation of their game plan in the AFC title game. They used it on 19 snaps. Brady was 13 of 19 for 138 yards and a touchdown as it was a key part of their attack. Here’s a look at the touchdown, a 16-yarder to Chris Hogan.
This is what the Atlanta Falcons are dealing with preparing for Super Bowl LI. It has been noted many times that the Patriots change their game plan and approach every week, to attack an opponent’s perceived weaknesses. That’s how you see something like the Patriots relying heavily on a personnel group they had used only 10 times the entire regular season. Every game is brand new for them.
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How can the Falcons prepare for the Patriots when you have no idea what you’re preparing for? That’s the issue all Patriots opponents face.
One thing the Falcons can expect is that the Patriots will try to get running backs James White or Dion Lewis involved in the passing game. That’s was a staple for their offense all season and it was a big part of their plan against the Houston Texans in the divisional playoff round. On this play, they got Lewis matched up with middle linebacker Benardrick McKinney in a creative way. The three-man concept against a red zone “quarters” zone coverage had Chris Hogan threatening the corner, fullback James Develin’s wheel route occupying the safety and then Lewis’ flat route brought McKinney outside. It was specifically designed to attack McKinney and get him to defend Lewis in space, and it worked for a 13-yard touchdown.
The Falcons have a better matchup for White and Lewis. Rookie linebacker Deion Jones is usually Atlanta’s player who matches up with backs on passing routes. Jones is fast, and we’ll see if he can take that part of New England’s offense away. One of the Falcons’ strengths on defense is that Jones and De’Vondre Campbell give Atlanta a lot of speed at linebacker in its nickel defense.
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The Patriots will have many plays that are designed, with route concepts and combinations, to attack the Falcons whether they are in man or zone. The Falcons will use “Cover 1” man and “Cover 3” zone as their foundation coverages. We can find a few clues from the Patriots’ loss to the Seattle Seahawks from Week 10, because the Seahawks and Falcons (coached by Dan Quinn, who was Seattle’s defensive coordinator) have similar schemes. Late in the third quarter against the Seahawks, with Martellus Bennett aligned in the slot. With a quick run action inside, and the offensive line selling the run fake effectively, the Seahawks had linebacker K.J. Wright on Bennett, and Bennett’s got free on his crossing route and Tom Brady made an excellent late-in-the-down throw. That’s the kind of play that would work vs. man or zone, in what is basically a four-man route concept.
When I broke down the Patriots’ ability to find new weapons at receivers and seamlessly move on without Rob Gronkowski, the theme was that the Patriots are uniquely equipped because every game plan is totally different. They’re also masterful at concepts to get receivers open.
The Falcons know all of that after studying the Patriots the last two weeks. But the challenge is putting together a defensive game plan, not having any way to guess what the opponent will try to do.
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NFL analyst and NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell watches as much NFL game film as anyone. Throughout the season, Cosell will join Shutdown Corner to share his observations on the teams, schemes and personnel from around the league.
