Getting Defensive: Week 4
Week 3 brought some interesting developments in the world of fantasy defenses, as Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers presented themselves as potential season-long streaming targets and the Pittsburgh Steelers came to the unfortunate realization that they will be without the services of Ben Roethlisberger for roughly the next month of the season. As more defensive data is pours in, we continue to get a better feel for the landscape of fantasy defenses and which particular NFL offenses can be taken advantage of on a weekly basis. Below, we will take a spin through Week 4 fantasy D/ST options and rank them in tier form to help make your Week 4 roster decisions as easy as possible. Week 4 kicker rankings and future defensive options can also be found at the bottom of the page for your fantasy special teams needs. If you have any questions regarding specific defenses this week, feel free to hit me up on the Twitter machine at @Jeff_Brubach.
The Fantastic Four
The (1) Seattle Seahawks (vs Detroit) have always benefited from playing at home and they flexed their CenturyLink Field muscles in Week 3 with a shutout of the Chicago Bears. With Kam Chancellor back at strong safety, the Seattle defense is in top shape and will get an extra day of rest this week with Detroit visiting Seattle on Monday night. Detroit hasn’t topped 16 points in their last two games and was sacked four times and gave up three turnovers in Week 2 against Denver, another quality defense.
A strong argument could be made for the (2) Denver Broncos (vs Minnesota) topping our Week 4 list, but Wade Phillips’ defense is a fantastic group nonetheless. Denver leads the NFL, allowing just 259 yards of offense per game this season to go with 11 sacks and ten takeaways in just three games. A home date with Minnesota is far from scary and another top defensive performance should be expected from the Broncos.
After destroying Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers in Week 3, the (3) Arizona Cardinals (vs St. Louis) now lead the NFL with seven interceptions. The Cardinals defense is also in the top-five in the league in yards allowed so far this season and will be hosting the St. Louis Rams, who have mustered up a whopping one touchdown in the last two weeks. The Rams were particularly inept on offense last week, as they managed just two field goals against a less than imposing Pittsburgh defense. The Cardinals should be started with full confidence this week.
The (4) New York Jets (at Miami) lead the league in points allowed through three weeks, giving up just 13.7 per contest. The Jets did give up 24 points to Philadelphia in Week 3, but only two offensive touchdowns were scored by the Eagles, and the Jets defense held Chip Kelly’s squad scoreless from the two-minute warning of the first half through the final horn. Kacy Rodgers’ defense also leads the NFL in takeaways, creating 11 turnovers in three games. This week, the scuffling Miami Dolphins are on the schedule for the Jets.
Not Center Cut, But Still Tasty
Although the (5) Carolina Panthers (at Tampa Bay) have faced Blake Bortles, Ryan Mallett, and Luke McCown so far in 2015, the Panthers defense is leading the NFL in yards per pass attempt, giving up just 5.4 yards per throw from opposing quarterbacks. The Panthers D/ST is also holding opposing signal callers to a 58.8 percent completion rate, which bodes well for a Week 4 matchup with Jameis Winston, who is completing just 52.2 percent of his passes through three weeks. Winston should be good for a couple turnovers in this game.
The (6) Philadelphia Eagles (at Washington) are allowing just 3.1 yards per rushing attempt in 2015, and if they can continue to stuff the run in Week 4, Washington will have to rely on Kirk Cousins to move the ball. Sure, Washington has been solid on the ground, running for 143.7 yards per game through three weeks, but if this game falls in Cousins’ hands then the Eagles D/ST will be a nice play. Cousins is at four interceptions on the young season owns a 21:23 touchdown to interception ratio in his NFL career.
Week 3 got away from the (7) Cincinnati Bengals (vs Kansas City), as they allowed 17 fourth quarter points to the Baltimore Ravens, but the Bengals defense was actually solid for most of that game. This week, Cincinnati returns home to face the Kansas City Chiefs on a short week. The Bengals D/ST is allowing just 76.7 rushing yards per game and if this unit can bottle up Jamaal Charles, Alex Smith won’t be striking fear into Cincinnati defenders.
In 2015 games when they are not facing New England, the (8) Buffalo Bills (vs NY Giants) are allowing just 14 points per game. While that is a cherry-picked stat, the Bills have been decent so far this season while allowing an NFL low 74 rushing yards per game and racking up eight turnovers in three weeks. The Giants will pay a visit to Ralph Wilson Stadium this week as six point underdogs, and a solid D/ST at home as nearly a touchdown favorite is a reasonable fantasy play.
A seven sack performance delighted owners of the (9) Green Bay Packers (at San Francisco) D/ST in Week 3, and this group draws a fantastic matchup in Week 4 with Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers. Kaepernick was handing out pick-sixes like Smarties on Halloween last week and with the San Francisco defense highly unlikely to contain Aaron Rodgers, the 49ers will have to rely on their quarterback again in Week 4. That fact alone will make the Green Bay defense a start-worthy group this week.
Streamer Specials
The (10) Baltimore Ravens (at Pittsburgh) haven’t been the 1985 Bears so far this season, but Week 4 is a decent opportunity to stream this group if you play in the 35 percent of Yahoo leagues in which they are currently unowned. The Pittsburgh offense has plenty of spectacular weapons, but without Ben Roethlisberger, they could be vulnerable. Michael Vick will get his first start of the season on a short week with just a few days to prepare for the Ravens. Vick has also completed just 53.8 percent of his passes in 2013 and 2014, and has just one career season with a completion percentage north of 60 percent. Le’Veon Bell will still be a handful, but an inaccurate quarterback in his first start on a Thursday night is worth a shot as a streaming target.
Available in 70 percent of Yahoo leagues, the (11) Indianapolis Colts (vs Jacksonville) should be attractive for fantasy owners in need of D/ST help this week. Blake Bortles has three interceptions on the season and although he hasn’t been sacked at his usual astronomical clip so far in 2015, the Colts defense should be able to handle Jacksonville at home as a large Vegas favorite.
You may have seen the (12) San Diego Chargers (vs Cleveland) defense on the curb near your house with a “free” sign, as this group is currently owned in just two percent of Yahoo fantasy football leagues. While the Chargers D/ST hasn’t shut anyone down yet this season, they have been surprisingly decent against the pass, allowing just 189.3 yards through the air per game. This week, they welcome Josh McCown to Southern California and as a touchdown favorite facing a suspect quarterback, the Chargers D/ST is worth a shot this week.
Reasonable Options
The (13) St. Louis Rams (at Arizona) held down the explosive Pittsburgh offense in Week 3, and are tied for the NFL lead in sacks with 13 through three games. The issue here is with the matchup, as Arizona has scored 42 points per game so far in 2015. That is not a typo.
The wildly inaccurate Ryan Mallett will face the (14) Atlanta Falcons (vs Houston) in Week 4, making the Falcons D/ST worth a look. This situation is the opposite of St. Louis’ above, as in this case we have a decent matchup for a bad defense. The possible return of Arian Foster could ding this matchup some, but Atlanta is worth watching as they host Houston.
The (15) Minnesota Vikings (at Denver) aren’t as good as they showed on Monday night in Week 1, but they haven’t allowed an opposing team to score more than 16 points so far this season and are allowing just 6.4 yards per pass attempt from opposing quarterbacks. A road matchup with Denver is not ideal but this group is worth looking at if you’re desperate.
Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers were tough matchups for the (16) Kansas City Chiefs (at Cincinnati) defense over the last two weeks, and things won’t get much easier with a road trip to Cincinnati to face the 3-0 Bengals. The Chiefs have nine sacks through three weeks and although the true identity of their defense has been tough to tell in such rough matchups so far this year, they should be a solid group against lesser competition.
Reasons For Pessimism
The (17) Miami Dolphins (vs NY Jets) have recorded just one sack in 2015 and just got smashed at home by Buffalo in Week 3. This defense is plummeting quickly. The 0-3 (18) Detroit Lions (at Seattle) haven’t had any significant success on defense so far this season and are huge road underdogs at Seattle in Week 3, which is a recipe for D/ST disaster. The (19) New York Giants (at Buffalo) are hemorrhaging passing yards this season and although it was garbage time-infused, Kirk Cousins dropped 316 yards on this defense last week. Tyrod Taylor should be able to move the ball with ease. Checking in near the bottom of every major defensive statistic, the (20) New Orleans Saints (vs Dallas) won’t be a good Week 4 option even at home against Brandon Weeden. Suspensions and injuries have hurt the defensive line of the (21) Dallas Cowboys (at New Orleans), and with Drew Brees looking like a good bet to play in Week 4, this defense is better off left on the shelf. The Baltimore Ravens may be 0-3, but they have averaged 445.5 total yards over their last two games and now face the (22) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Baltimore). The (23) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Carolina) have struggled against the run this season and Week 4 brings a matchup with Carolina, who is averaging 132 rushing yards per game in 2015..
Bottom Feeders
The Atlanta offense is humming and the (24) Houston Texans (at Atlanta) aren’t going to be able to stop Julio Jones in the Georgia Dome. More than a touchdown underdog against a solid offense makes the (25) Cleveland Browns (at San Diego) worth skipping this week. The (26) Chicago Bears (vs Oakland) are giving up 35 points per game this season, and that number went down after Week 3. The (27) Oakland Raiders (at Chicago) are coughing up a NFL worst 414.7 yards of offense per game this season. If Jimmy Clausen starts for Chicago you can bump them up a tier, but I still wouldn’t start this defense. Although the (28) Washington Redskins (vs Philadelphia) are second in the NFL in yardage allowed through three weeks, two of Washington’s games were against bad offenses and Philadelphia’s offense looked a bit improved in Week 3. The (29) Jacksonville Jaguars (at Indianapolis) have created just one turnover in three weeks and travel to Indianapolis fresh off giving up 51 points at New England. This (30) San Francisco 49ers (vs Green Bay) team has the distinct look of a train wreck and has given up 90 points over the last two weeks and now face Aaron Rodgers. Gulp.
Looking Ahead
Kansas City (Week 5 vs Chicago)
Green Bay (Week 5 vs St. Louis)
New York Giants (Week 5 vs San Francisco)
Kickers Are People Too
1. Adam Vinatieri (vs JAX)
2. Matt Bryant (vs HOU)
3. Steven Hauschka (vs DET)
4. Brandon McManus (vs MIN)
5. Justin Tucker (at PIT)
6. Mason Crosby (at SF)
7. Josh Brown (at BUF)
8. Dan Bailey (at NO)
9. Josh Lambo (vs CLE)
10. Robbie Gould (vs OAK)
11. Sebastian Janikowski (at CHI)
12. Nick Folk (at MIA)
13. Caleb Sturgis (at WAS)
14. Cairo Santos (at CIN)
15. Josh Scobee (vs BAL)
