Geno's No-Win Situation
“The best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry,” or some variant thereof, is a charter member of the cliché Hall-of-Fame. Everyone knows that not even the best process can guarantee a good result.
But what about the worst laid plans? Say, turning over your franchise to a career 53.9 percent college passer? Or putting your second-year starter one lingering hamstring injury away from a receiver corps “led” by Jeremy Kerley and David Nelson?
Aside from the occasional building around Rich Gannon or Brad Johnson, the worst laid plans always go awry. That became painfully evident for the Titans and Jets on Sunday. Tennessee stood by helplessly as Jake Locker improved his 2014 completion percentage to 58.0 before departing with yet another injury. The Jets watched in horror as Geno Smith tried to complete passes to Kerley, Nelson and Greg Salas before getting yanked at halftime of what would ultimately be a 31-0 loss.
Locker remained who he’s always been. An inaccurate, indecisive, scatter-brained injury waiting to happen. Smith kept progressing toward what he doesn’t have to be. A shell-shocked sophomore regressing from an already poor form because he doesn’t have teammates capable of helping him out of the gutter.
Locker’s fate should be written. Regardless of what happens going forward in 2014, this is a walk-year quarterback who won’t be returning to a team that last seemed sold on him some time in 2012. For Smith, the answer isn’t quite as clear. There’s likely still forgiveness to be found from a franchise that desperately wants him to succeed, but how’s he supposed to earn it if Eric Decker is never anywhere close to 100 percent? The only thing waiting for Smith in Week 6 against the Broncos is going to be the wolves. Even if Smith somehow survives Denver with his job intact, Darrelle Revis and the Pats will be waiting to deliver the final blow in Week 7.
Talented players usually perform well in the NFL, and vice versa. That means if Smith entered the league without what it took to become a successful starting quarterback, there’s likely little the Jets could have done to change that. But that doesn’t mean there was nothing they could do. That’s just how it ending up. Once in a blue moon, teams get bailed out of bad plans by lucky results. Locker and Smith are not the blue moons. They’re the harsh reality that poor planning rarely goes unpunished.
Five Things That Went According To Plan In Week 5
Demaryius Thomas getting back on track following the Broncos’ bye week. Thomas entered Week 5 with a shockingly pedestrian 13 catches for 141 yards. He eclipsed that yardage total by halftime of Sunday’s romp over the Cardinals, ringing up eight grabs for 226 yards and two scores before it was all said and done. His afternoon could have been even bigger had offsetting penalties not wiped out a 77-yard score. Now on pace for 84/1,468/12, Thomas is within striking distance of another top-three fantasy finish at receiver.
Odell Beckham’s unveiling as the Giants’ No. 3 receiver. Making his NFL debut, the No. 12 overall pick of May’s draft caught 4-of-5 targets for 44 yards and a touchdown. Beckham’s 15-yard score in the fourth quarter put the Giants ahead to stay, while OBJ also drew a defensive pass interference penalty. His speed changed the game for an offense that had been trotting out Preston Parker behind Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle. With the Giants’ new offense hitting on all cylinders, Beckham shouldn’t be on waiver wires in 12-team leagues.
Arian Foster’s production when healthy. Finally over his latest hamstring injury, Foster proceeded to paste the Cowboys for 172 total yards and two touchdowns. Foster has emphatically proven that he’s still a difference-making talent, but his injury risk is as great as any player’s in the league. The risk is magnified for Week 6, as the Texans are playing on a short week against the Colts. There have been worse ideas than placing Foster on the trade block and taking the best offer you can get.
Ben Tate’s reclamation of No. 1 duties in Cleveland. Tate stung the Titans for 123 yards on 22 carries as the Browns rallied from a 28-3 deficit, reasserting himself over rookies Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West with relative ease. Again the engine of an offense committed to the run, Tate will be a locked-in RB2 for as long as he can stay on the field. He has an inviting Week 6 matchup in a Steelers defense that’s sprung leaks at every level.
Kyle Orton’s steadying of the Bills’ ship. As far as saviors go, Orton is a particularly poor one. Going on 32, he entered Sunday’s start the owner of a career 58.5 completion percentage and 6.63 YPA. But in helping the Bills spring the upset on the road, he did something E.J. Manuel never has: Throw for over 300 yards. Orton rebounded from an early pick six to finish 30-of-43 for 308 yards and a touchdown, peppering No. 4 overall pick Sammy Watkins with 12 targets. Orton isn’t about to be a Pro Bowler, but he has the skills and the supporting cast to be a perfectly competent game manager.
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Five Things That Didn’t Go According To Plan In Week 5
Calvin Johnson’s return from an invisible Week 4. Limited to decoy duties in last week’s win over the Jets, Megatron was supposed to be much closer to full go against the Bills. Instead, he aggravated his right-ankle injury after only one catch, and is now uncertain for Week 6 and beyond. Johnson owners need to plan on being without their WR1 for at least one game.
Branden Oliver playing second fiddle to Donald Brown. Granted, things would have been different had Brown not suffered a concussion, but Oliver subbed in for his injured teammate and never looked back, smoking the wounded Jets for 114 yards and a touchdown on only 14 carries. He added four catches for 68 yards and an additional score. His 182 yards from scrimmage were the most by a Chargers running back since LaDainian Tomlinson rolled up 192 in December 2007. This, against a defense which had been permitting just three yards per tote and 63.3 rushing yards per game. A poor man’s Darren Sproles, Oliver is a good bet to eat up the Raiders in Week 6. Ryan Mathews could be back as soon as Week 7, but Oliver is worth an add in all 10-12 team leagues.
Kelvin Benjamin building on his hot start at home. Benjamin secured just 3-of-11 targets for 38 yards against the Bears, committing a litany of mistakes in the process. There were drops, a fumble and a failure to secure a catchable ball in the end zone. It was a brutal performance, one the rookie was lucky came in a victory. Benjamin still boasts six feet, five inches of upside, but as feared, he’s going to be a year-long rollercoaster. You can’t learn new hands overnight.
Austin Davis wilting after a slow start in Philadelphia. Davis started Sunday’s game just 4-of-11 for 59 yards, but closed it out by going 25-of-38 for 316 yards and three scores. The Rams lost, of course, while Davis was undoubtedly aided by an Eagles team that relaxed after going up 34-7. But this is now a quarterback who boasts a 67.8 completion percentage and 7.89 YPA through 143 attempts. Only 13 quarterbacks have thrown for more than Davis’ 1,129 yards, while he’s sporting a 6:3 TD:INT ratio. Davis’ hot start could definitely be smoke and mirrors. He’s faced an extremely soft schedule, while he’s only now putting together a body of work for opposing defenses to dissect. But he’s playing the best quarterback St. Louis has seen in a long time, and has put himself in the streaming discussion. Week 6 against San Francisco represents a fascinating test for the third-year undrafted free agent.
LeSean McCoy’s resurgence. The Rams entered Sunday coughing up 5.1 yards per carry and 155 rushing yards per game. McCoy could manage just 3.4 and 81, respectively, in a game where the Eagles rolled up 34 points in a home victory. “Pressing” in the same way a slumping hitter expands the strike zone, McCoy caught C.J. Spiller Syndrome by trying to bounce everything outside. It was at least part of the reason 12 of Shady’s 24 carries went for two yards or fewer. The Eagles’ shaky line didn’t help, of course, but it was not a game that suggested McCoy’s now long-awaited breakout is just around the bend. Week 6 presents a divisional test in a Giants defense that’s permitting a respectable 4.09 yards per carry and 99 yards per game.
Questions
1. Did I say more touches for Bishop Sankey? LOL. Whoops. I meant fewer touches for Bishop Sankey. Sorry about that. Love, Whiz.
2. Is Peyton Manning ever going to turn the difficulty up?
3. Ok, Marc Trestman, you won games with Josh McCown, but what’s your next trick?
Early Waiver Look (Players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Austin Davis, Joe Flacco, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Mike Glennon
RB: Branden Oliver, Andre Williams, Ronnie Hillman, Jerick McKinnon, C.J. Anderson
WR: Justin Hunter, Odell Beckham, James Jones, Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson
TE: Dwayne Allen, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tim Wright
Stats of the Week
Yes, Tom Brady bounced back from his horrific Week 4 in impressive fashion, but is still sporting just a 6.3 YPA and 6:2 TD:INT ratio. Brady is 2-of-19 on passes that have traveled 20 or more yards in the air. There remains much work to be done.
Storm Johnson led the Jaguars in rushing, but was just fourth in running back snaps (eight). That will probably change in Week 6.
Julius Thomas is on pace for 28 touchdowns. It’s October 6.
DeMarco Murray has 210 more rushing yards than any other player.
Riley Cooper, who is tied for third in receiver snaps, has graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst wideout through the season’s first five weeks.
Michael and Malcom Floyd both have 12 catches for 259 yards, and co-lead the league in yards per catch at 21.6.
Amongst qualified rushers, only four are averaging fewer than three yards per carry. Donald Brown, Toby Gerhart, Doug Martin and LeSean McCoy.
Awards Section
Week 5 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Peyton Manning, RB Arian Foster, RB Branden Oliver, WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Brian Quick, WR Golden Tate, TE Greg Olsen
Biggest Disappointment of Week 5: Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt letting Shonn Greene out-touch Bishop Sankey 11-8 after promising Sankey would be more involved against the Browns. For his efforts, Whiz watched his team blow a 28-3 lead in a 29-28 loss.
Most Absurd Moment of Week 5: Bills DC Jim Schwartz letting his players carry him off the field after beating his former team.
Second Most Absurd Moment of Week 5: Whatever this was from LeSean McCoy.
Play of the Week: Brandon Lloyd turning on the jet pack to beat Sean Smith.
When The Historians Look Back On This Week, They Will Say: Curiously, the player “nick named” after a sentient robotic lifeform looked rather human for the second-consecutive game, heading to the “side line” after only one catch of the football. It was a rather quaint scene, particularly in the context of the N.F.L. moving to all robotic players in the year 2026, but yet another reminder of the frailty of these warriors, no matter how much larger than life they sometimes seemed.
