Forde-Yard Dash: Measuring the fallout from Separation Saturday

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (crisis-management guides sold separately in Gainesville, and perhaps available second-hand from the folks in Ann Arbor who used them last week):

FALL FASHION UPDATE

The weather changed in much of the country this past weekend, and so did the climate of this entire college football season. The wildest, most entertaining week in recent memory triggered huge shakeups in the traditional power structures of several conferences, with some classic looks suddenly going out of style in favor of the hot new thing. The Dash isn’t much help when it comes to helping anyone dress fashionably for autumn (pro tip: wear more clothes), but does have cutting-edge analysis of the radical makeover that is trending on the gridiron.

Houndstooth is out in the South. So 2012. Visors are in, as worn by SEC West tri-leading coaches Hugh Freeze (1) of Mississippi, Dan Mullen (2) of Mississippi State and Gus Malzahn (3) of Auburn. And, of course, as also worn by Katy Perry (4) in this beer-chugging, crowd-surfing clip from the Ole Miss postgame bacchanal Saturday night. Seems to The Dash that no “College GameDay” celebrity guest picker has ever enjoyed him/herself more on campus than Katy did. No shortage of fireworks from her. And no state is enjoying 2014 more than Mississippi, which is home to a pair of programs that have combined for one appearance in the 22-year history of the Southeastern Conference championship game, and for zero SEC titles in the last 50 years. Party on, Mississippians, party on.

Day-Glo is abruptly out of vogue in the West. All the blinding uniform combinations in the world won’t camouflage an Oregon offensive line that can’t block, as exposed by less gaudily attired Arizona (5) last Thursday night. Hampered by line injuries, the Ducks averaged only 3.5 yards per carry in an upset loss at home – their lowest single-game rushing average since their loss to Stanford last year. Mark Helfrich is now 8-3 in Pac-12 play. It took predecessor Chip Kelly 35 league games to lose three times.

Red is the new Play Dead color, as modeled by Nebraska offensive guard Jake Cotton (6). Cotton’s statuesque collapse mirrored that of the Cornhuskers, who trailed Michigan State 27-3 in the fourth quarter before rallying to make it close in the final minutes. This continues the trend of offensive linemen behaving bizarrely, after Penn State linemen were seen blocking each other on a failed fourth-and-1 last week against Northwestern and Florida linemen did the same thing last year. The cruel ancient football truism remains intact: offensive linemen are rarely singled out for anything good.

Gridworld’s new most fashionable place: Oxford. As in Mississippi and Ohio. You know about the Rebels. But Kudos also to the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (7) for rallying from a 27-point deficit to beat Massachusetts and end their losing streak at 21 games, longest in the nation. Oxford is the new Milan. And UMass (0-6) is the new basement of the FBS, having lost 12 in a row. Last victory for the Minutemen was Oct. 12, 2013 – over Miami (Ohio).

Gridworld’s new most fashionable nickname: Wildcats. There are Wildcat strikes all over the place at the moment:

Arizona is the only unbeaten in the Pac-12. There is, of course, a vast amount of time between now and when conference hardware is handed out, but consider: Arizona’s last undisputed championship was 1941, when it won the Border Intercollegiate Athletic Association title. It was co-champion of the Western Athletic Conference twice (1964 and ’73) and co-champs of the Pac-10 once (1993). Prior to Utah and Colorado joining the league, Arizona was the only Pac-12 member never to have played in the Rose Bowl. There are middle-aged Saguaro in the Sonoran Desert that have never seen Arizona win a title of its own.

Kentucky (8) is arguably a missed delay-of-game penalty on Florida away from being 5-0 and 3-0 in the SEC. Even with that loss, UK is tied for second in the SEC East after beating South Carolina on Saturday. Second-year coach Mark Stoops has recruited well, and those victories are starting to translate to the field – sophomore running back Jojo Kemp was one of the heroes against the Gamecocks. But Joker Phillips holdover Patrick Towles, who some thought would be the third-string quarterback this year, has taken over the position and played very well. The back half of the schedule remains formidable, but when was the last time Kentucky was even in the SEC East race in the back half of the schedule? The answer: 1993, when UK was 3-1 in league play before fading to 4-4. Its last winning SEC record: 1977.

“It was special because, you know, the progress that we've made,” Stoops said of the South Carolina victory. “We know we're better. Our team knows we're better. But until you go out there and win some of those big games, it's hard to quantify it. So I feel very good about where we're headed.”

Northwestern (9). These Wildcats started the year with a thud, losing home games to California and Northern Illinois after an unsettled offseason. Even their first victory of the season, Sept. 20 against Western Illinois, hardly seemed like a get-well performance. But since then Pat Fitzgerald’s team has reeled off consecutive emphatic wins over previously undefeated Penn State and previously ranked Wisconsin. Northwestern never trailed in either game, and now sits alone atop the Big Ten West at 2-0. The next three games – at Minnesota, Nebraska, at Iowa – will largely shape who will win the West. A month ago, Northwestern didn’t figure to be in that discussion.

Kansas State (10). This is the least surprising entry in the Wildcat strike roundup, given the understated excellence of coach Bill Snyder. But still, Kansas State was picked to finish a distant third in the Big 12, just one point ahead of fourth-place Texas – and while they might still end up in that position, they currently bear the look of a league title contender. K-State’s only loss was a close, error-filled effort at home against Auburn, and it will take a 2-0 conference mark to Oklahoma on Oct. 18 after an open date this week. Quarterback Jake Waters has been in do-it-all mode in victories over Iowa State and Texas Tech, passing for 529 yards and running for 243. The schedule is unforgiving, with ranked opponents three of the next four weeks.

Gridworld’s new most fashionable quarterback first names: Three letters or fewer, please. Kudos to Dak Prescott (11) of Mississippi State and Anu Solomon (12) of Arizona, plus Mr. Brevity Himself, Bo Wallace (13) of Mississippi, for leading their teams to perfect records so far. Apologies to fill-in quarterbacks who have played well like Mike Bercovici at Arizona State and Daxx Garman at Oklahoma State, but you’re one letter over the fashion limit.

Fashionable color scheme: red and blue, as worn by Ole Miss and Arizona, and Fresno State has rebounded nicely from an 0-3 start to win three in a row. The exception is Kansas (14), of course, where the Jayhawks played without Charlie Weis pretty much how they played with him. They scored 14 points in a 19-point loss to West Virginia, marking the seventh time in their last eight Big 12 games that they failed to score more than two touchdowns. Nothing is ever in style in Lawrence during football season, other than losing.

THE PAC-12 IS A TEEMING MASS OF ABSURDITY, UNPREDICTABILITY AND OCCASIONAL AWESOMENESS

No, the league has not lived up to The Dash’s preseason prediction that it would usurp the SEC as the best in the land. Not by a long shot. But my gosh, it sure isn’t boring.

Nothing has followed script to date. Road teams are 11-3 in league games, including a perfectly preposterous 5-0 last week. That included upset shockers for preseason division favorites Oregon (against Arizona) and UCLA (against Utah).

The four teams in the preseason top 15 – Oregon, UCLA, Stanford and USC – are a combined 5-4 in league play.

The margins of victory from five league games last week: 7, 5, 4, 2, 1. The one non-league game was Stanford-Notre Dame, which was decided by three points on a touchdown pass with a minute left.

Two Pac-12 games have been decided on Hail Mary (15) plays. On Sept. 20, Arizona beat Cal 49-45 on a 47-yard pass on the final play, capping a preposterous, 36-point fourth quarter for the Wildcats. Arizona State got in the act Saturday by beating USC 38-34 on a 46-yard pass on the final play that capped a 20-point fourth quarter for the Sun Devils. (It must be noted that the Maginot Line was a better form of defense than USC’s on the final play. The Trojans just pretty much spectated on the play. It may have been the easiest Hail Mary completion ever.)

Had California (16) not collapsed in the above game against Arizona, it would be undefeated. That’s a year after going 1-11 in the first season under Sonny Dykes. Scores of the Golden Bears’ three Pac-12 games: 49-45, 59-56, 60-59. The Cal defense remains largely catastrophic, but coordinator Tony Franklin’s offense ranks fifth nationally in passing yards, seventh in yards per play and second in scoring. Every game Cal plays figures to be a hot mess the rest of the way.

Speaking of hot messes: Washington State (17). The Cougars have won by a point and lost by a point. All four of their games against FBS competition have been decided by a touchdown or less. Oh, and quarterback Connor Halliday threw for an NCAA-record 734 yards Saturday against Cal. The fewest passing attempts for Halliday in a game this year has been 56 in the opener, against Rutgers. Since then: 57, 62, 63, 61 and 70 on Saturday. But even 70 isn’t a stressful pitch count for a guy who chucked it an NCAA-record 89 times last year against Oregon. Even if the Cougars (2-4) don’t go to a bowl game, Halliday is on pace to break FBS single-season records for attempts (719) and yards (5,833). Those records were set in 2003 by Texas Tech’s B.J. Symons, who was coached by current Washington State boss Mike Leach.

Utah-UCLA (18) was decided on a missed field goal on the final play. Twice. Bruins kicker Ka’imi Faibairn shanked the first one from 55 yards out and got a gift retry on a pretty sketchy running into the kicker call. Then he missed from 50 and the game was over. UCLA continued its season-long habit of living dangerously, trailing by 10 points in the fourth quarter, but Brett Hundley threw touchdown passes of 93 and 40 yards to give UCLA the lead before Utah responded with a drive for the winning field goal. The Bruins tried to pull it out of the fire at the end but got the loss they’d flirted with three previous times.

Stanford (19) is not playing much like stereotypical Stanford, making a plethora of mental errors. The Cardinal is a shaky 3-2 in large part because it is a terrible team in plus territory, repeatedly killing possessions with turnovers, penalties, missed kicks or other mistakes. It has scored points on just 14 out of 21 red-zone possessions, tied for 117th nationally. Last year the Cardinal was 90 percent in the red zone. Coach David Shaw remains hopelessly devoted to kicker Jordan Williamson despite 50 percent field-goal accuracy this season and 24 misses across his checkered career. Stanford’s last season with a negative turnover margin was 2008, but it is a minus-4 right now.

The league has the nation’s two most prominent two-way players in Shaq Thompson (20) of Washington and Myles Jack (21) of UCLA. Thompson is a linebacker/running back/special teams player who has scored four touchdowns – one as a running back, two on fumble returns and one on an interception return. He has 35 tackles and 84 rushing yards for the season. Jack is a linebacker/running back who is second on the team in tackles (27 solo, 11 assists) and has scored one TD on offense. He’s only had 10 carries for 25 yards on that side of the ball, as Jim Mora has kept him more on the defensive side this season, but the option is there.

Also, Dashette Bryana Holly (22) is reportedly from Huntington Beach. Nothing boring about her, either.

PROBLEMS AT ALABAMA AND OKLAHOMA

After jarring weekend losses, two big-time programs that began the season in the top five are showing signs of slippage. A quick look at what plagues them:

Alabama (23) has been the best program in the nation for the past five years, a relentless machine churning through everything in its path. But someone threw a wrench into Saban’s machine last Thanksgiving weekend, and it hasn’t looked the same.

The Crimson Tide’s last three games against ranked teams are all losses: at Auburn, Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, and at Ole Miss. ‘Bama is 4-3 in its last seven, and even if the competition has been good, that is sub-Saban standards. But it’s not just the losses in big games; it’s how they’ve happened. There seems to have been some slippage in the attention to detail.

'Bama can’t make field goals. Can’t cover kicks. Can’t win the fourth quarter against good teams. Last time Alabama beat a good team outside of Tuscaloosa was at Texas A&M last year – and those Aggies did go on to lose four games.

There are issues in pass coverage, and issues defending no-huddle offenses. Alabama itself is playing faster on offense, but its defense still doesn’t seem to be comfortable with the concept. The Tide is giving up 4.65 yards per play, with some potent offenses to come the rest of this month; last year the average was 4.8, and that was the highest allowed since Saban’s first season.

After being a plus-65 in turnover margin under Saban from 2007-13, the current Tide team is minus-4. When the Crimson Tide was winning consecutive national titles in 2011-12 and 2012-13, it lost a total of seven fumbles in 27 games. In the 18 games since then, Bama has lost 13 fumbles, including six in five games in 2014.

Of course, Alabama could still win out and win it all. It’s not out of the question, but it will take some work to get the machine back running the way it did for five powerful years.

As for Oklahoma (24)? The Sooners were overrated yet again. Last year was the first time since 2007 that Oklahoma ended a season ranked higher than it started, thanks to the resounding upset of none other than Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. That got everyone back on the Sooner Schooner for 2014, and now it looks like it might have been yet another episode of delusion believing OU is back.

Quarterback Trevor Knight has a fan in Katy Perry, but he might have lost a few in Norman. His out-of-body performance in the Sugar Bowl is looking more like a blip than a sign of arrival; he’s 70th nationally in pass efficiency, with a passer rating that is almost identical to last year’s. Defensively, Oklahoma is giving up an average of 491 yards and 6.2 yards per play against two Big 12 opponents.

After losing at TCU, the Sooners are 6-7 in their last 13 games against AP Top 25 opponents. For the 10th straight season, they will not run the table in the Big 12. That doesn’t mean Oklahoma cannot or will not win the Big 12, or possibly earn a bid to the College Football Playoff – but it will take some rallying now.

QUARTERBACK IS HOLDING THEM BACK

Oklahoma isn’t the only team that needs better play at the most important position on the field. Four others who are struggling at QB:

Florida (25). National pass efficiency ranking: 107th. The stunning news Monday that Treon Harris is suspended and under investigation for a campus sexual assault is important for reasons far more significant than football. But the football part of it isn’t good, either. The freshman from Miami had just gotten his chance to show what he can do, and came through in the clutch Saturday at Tennessee. He led the flailing Gators to 10 fourth-quarter points and a one-point victory, and it appeared that Florida may finally be ready to try someone other than terminally ineffective Jeff Driskel as its starter. Now the ball seemingly will go back in Driskel’s hands for the foreseeable future – and those hands have led Florida to a total of seven offensive points in the last two games. The Gators’ streak of SEC games scoring 20 or less in regulation is now at eight.

Wisconsin (26). National pass efficiency ranking: 105th. The Badgers finally turned to 2013 starter Joel Stave on Saturday against Northwestern, and the result wasn’t pretty. After missing all season with what has been reported as something akin to the yips, the poor guy threw three interceptions in 19 attempts – one especially bad one in the end zone. The guy who had taken his place this year, Tanner McEvoy, also threw a pick. Coach Gary Andersen tried to spread the responsibility Monday: “On the four picks, one of them the quarterback was hit and it was a contested ball that could have gone either way, which Northwestern got. The other one was a tip ball. There was another one that was a contested ball, and the other one was a decision that we'd all like to have back, but we can still look at ourselves in the eye and say we're all responsible for every one of those picks. So that's me as a coach. And I believe in both of our quarterbacks. I'm excited to see them continue to grow and develop, and we're looking forward to getting better on the offensive side of the ball.” If the Badgers don’t get better in the passing game, there are more losses to come – no matter how good running back Melvin Gordon is. (And he’s really good.)

LSU (27). National pass efficiency ranking: 27th. That’s a deceptive stat. The Tigers’ guesswork rotation of Brandon Harris and Anthony Jennings has failed in conference play, where they are completing just 47 percent of their passes and thrown only two touchdowns. LSU has tried to compensate for the lack of quarterback production by playing a lot of conservative, power sets and relying on its running game – but in falling way behind against Mississippi State and Auburn, that strategy hasn’t been viable over the full course of the game. At least this week LSU meets its match in quarterback futility at Florida.

Washington (28). National pass efficiency rank: 71st. First-year starter Cyler Miles has at least succeeded in not giving the ball to the other team – he has yet to throw a pick in 100 attempts. But he’s 98th nationally in passing yards per game at a mere 156, bottoming out with just 98 in a loss to Stanford. An injury to deep threat John Ross has hurt – nobody else on the team has a reception for longer than 28 yards. The Huskies had an off week to try to juice up the aerial attack, and Cal’s pliable defense should help as well. If Washington can’t throw it around this week, it won’t all year.

QUARTERBACK IS BOOSTING THEM FORWARD

Four teams getting dramatically improved play at QB, and it’s positively impacting the bottom line:

TCU (29). National pass efficiency rank: 50th. Last year: 103rd. Trevone Boykin was a limited passer who was supposed to be beaten out by Texas A&M transfer Matt Joeckel and wind up playing receiver. Didn’t happen. Instead, Boykin has put a hammerlock on the job and thrown for at least 258 yards every game, while also running with aplomb. He has 13 total touchdowns and two interceptions, flourishing in the Horned Frogs’ new and more quarterback-friendly offense.

California. National pass efficiency rank: 2nd. Last year: 92nd. Jared Goff was thrown into the fire in 2013 as a true freshman on a bad team, and predictably bad things ensued – he and teammate Zach Kline threw 14 interceptions, and didn’t get into the end zone enough to offset a porous defense. This time around, Goff is flourishing – 22 touchdowns, which is second in the nation, and only three picks. At 4-1, Cal is a dangerous team that now gets Washington and UCLA at home, then Oregon in Levi’s Stadium to finish October.

Michigan State (30). National pass efficiency rank: 11th. Last year: 63rd. In a conference full of really bad quarterback play, Connor Cook has been good. Still, he’s been far better against the no-name teams than the big-name teams thus far: his passer rating in games against Oregon and Nebraska is a pedestrian 121.5, and more than double that in three blowouts against overmatched competition. But Cook started to show his mettle late last year, and he has some playmaking wideouts who have grown along with him.

Utah (31). National pass efficiency rank: 48th. Last year: 87th. The Utes are using two guys and making it work, with Travis Wilson and Kendal Thompson both playing well at varying times. Wilson has thrown seven touchdowns and zero interceptions, but Thompson was big in the upset at UCLA on Saturday – he replaced Wilson early and passed and ran for 178 yards. Coach Kyle Whittingham says he is not a two-quarterback guy, but he’s holding his cards close to his vest after the UCLA victory about who will be the Utes’ starter Oct. 16 at Oregon State.

THIRD-YEAR JEERS

Hugh Freeze, Rich Rodriguez, Todd Graham and Jim McElwain are among the coaches out there showing what Brian Kelly showed in 2012 at Notre Dame: the third season can be the breakout season.

It can also be the bottom-out season for guys who can’t get it done. Will Muschamp and Brady Hoke raised suspicions about their competency last year but got a fourth season, and it hasn’t worked out well so far. Some coaches who are beginning to hear the clock tick in Year Three:

Larry Fedora (32), North Carolina. The Tar Heels were picked to win the ACC Coastal but currently are 0-2 in league play and 2-3 overall – and the next two opponents are both undefeated (Notre Dame and Georgia Tech). Fedora’s record is in danger of sliding again, after going 8-4 in 2012 and 7-6 last year. UNC couldn’t stop anyone the first four weeks of the season, then reversed form and flailed away offensively Saturday in a home loss to Virginia Tech. Fedora’s record in ACC games is now 9-9, continuing a decade-long trend of mediocrity in a less-than-imposing league.

Tony Levine (33), Houston. The Cougars plummeted from 13-1 in their final year with Kevin Sumlin and Case Keenum to 5-7 in their first year with Levine, but he righted the ship last year by going 8-5. Now Houston is backsliding again. Despite returning a veteran team and a 3,000-yard quarterback, the Cougars (2-3) have struggled to score and even benched QB John O’Korn last week against Central Florida in favor of converted receiver Greg Ward Jr. There are plenty of winnable games remaining in the American Athletic Conference, and Levine will need them to restore confidence.

Paul Chryst (34), Pittsburgh. Thirty-two games in, he’s the picture of mediocrity: 16-16. But the trend line is down for this particular Pitt team – after starting 3-0, it has lost three straight, including a home embarrassment against Akron. Star running back James Conner has been slowed down the past two games, and the passing game has failed to pick up the slack. For a guy whose calling card is offense, Pitt isn’t generating much of it (75th nationally in total offense).

Tim Beckman (35), Illinois. No third-year coach is probably on thinner ice than Beckman, whose Big Ten record dropped to 1-17 Saturday with a home loss to equally futile Purdue. At 3-3, it’s difficult to find another likely victory on the schedule, and a 9-27 record over three seasons would almost certainly terminate any chance of a fourth.

Bob Davie (36), New Mexico. The Lobos were 4-9 his first year, 3-9 last year, and off to a 2-3 start in 2014 with victories over New Mexico State and UTSA. In Mountain West play Davie is just 2-14 – that’s pretty much par for the course established by previous coach Mike Locksley, but Davie was hired to make a course correction. We’ll see if that happens when New Mexico continues MWC play Saturday against San Diego State.

COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK

Gary Patterson (37), TCU. Always a great defensive coach, Patterson got with the Big 12 program and modernized his offense in the offseason by bringing in co-coordinators Doug Meachem from Houston and Sonny Cumbie from Texas Tech. The result is a much-improved product that proved difficult for Oklahoma to stop Saturday – the Horned Frogs scored more in one game against the Sooners (37) than they had in their previous two Big 12 meetings against Oklahoma combined (34). Now Patterson gets to turn his defense loose on Baylor, which barely escaped Fort Worth last year and was blown out by the Frogs in 2012 in Waco.

COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK

Brady Hoke (38), Michigan. At least while there’s still a job to go to.

POINT AFTER

When hungry in the developing gridiron Mecca of Starkville, Miss., The Dash recommends dinner at Restaurant Tyler (39) in the Cotton District. Start with the crawfish dip appetizer. Then try the bone-in, cold smoked pork chop with a mac-and-cheese casserole side. A Southern Hops’pitality IPA (40), from Lazy Magnolia Brewing Company in Brett Favre’s hometown of Kiln, makes an excellent accompaniment. Thank The Dash later.