Finals Preview Part 1
Rome wasn’t built in a day, patience is a virtue, all things come to those who wait, patience is bitter but the fruit is sweet, and yada yada yada. It’s Sunday and yet we still have to wait for Thursday night to get to the NBA Finals.
The Cavs will travel to Oakland for Game 1 and try to be just the second Eastern Conference team to get a win at Oracle this season (Chicago). The last time they were there, they didn’t have LeBron James and were blown out 112-94 on Jan. 9. Now, the Cavs have a ton of momentum with a six-game winning streak while their team is nowhere near 100 percent. We’ll go through the preview player by player, but here are a couple trends to keep an eye on.
In the regular season, the Warriors were first in pace while the Cavs came in at 25th. The Cavs have actually slowed down to 92.9 possessions per 48 in the playoffs, which ranks last among playoff teams and would have been second to last in the regular season (Utah).
In the last 10 games the Cavs allowed 100 points in a game during the regular season, they only went 4-6. Of course, the Warriors can score 100 points in their sleep and have scored at least 98 points in all of their last eight outings. The Cavs are certainly going to want to slow this game down while the Warriors are going to try and run up the score. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving also have to keep their turnovers down.
LeBron James - As much as Stephen Curry has been killing it, it all starts and ends with LeBron. Even with his team going down to injury, LeBron has shined and he hasn’t even been great at shooting the ball. His usage rate is far and away No. 1 in the playoffs at 36.4 (Curry is second at 31.1), but his true shooting percentage is only 49.2. Here’s his shot chart in the playoffs (top) along with his regular season (bottom):
All that red stands out, but he’s really been bad from deep. He’s taken a pull-up trey on 12.9 percent of his shots while his catch-and-shoot attempts sit at just 4.3. For years, LeBron has been much better on catch-and-shoot from deep, which is standard for just about anyone not named J.R. Smith. The problem with the Cavs is nobody else is making plays right now with Kyrie not healthy. LeBron made 39.4 percent of his treys off Kyrie passes in the regular season, but that percentage has plummeted to just 16.7 in the postseason.
Besides struggling mightily away from the basket, it’s a similar chart. LeBron’s distribution (DST in the shot charts) is fairly close on all of them. He has still been able to get to the rim for a good chunk of his shots, which has always been his strongest asset, obviously.
Taking it a step further, here’s a comparison of his off-dribble shooting and closest defender stats from the playoffs (top) and regular season (bottom):
The two big differences jumping out are the increase in his three-plus dribbles and facing tighter defense. Plus, he’s also killer on his one-dribble drives, but that’s been happening less while being less effective in the postseason. This all makes sense because LeBron just doesn’t get help. He’s getting double-teamed more often and the weak side defense has been there even against less formidable defenses.
So how do the Warriors try to handle LeBron? It’s certainly going to be a team effort. Here’s who they put on LeBron in the only game they played against him this season (via ESPN's SportsCenter):
Yes, this is the latest episode of Small Sample Size Theatre, but it should be a similar plan. Iggy will stick him when he’s out there, but there’s a decent chance about 30 percent of Iggy’s minutes won’t be while LeBron is on the court. LeBron has been going isolation a lot lately, which is when we get Peak Draymond Green. His defense inside of 10 feet is among the best in the NBA. Against the Rockets, Green exhibited tremendous defense against James Harden in ISO and also held down the paint nicely. Harrison Barnes also did a nice job on Harden and may start out on LeBron.
It’s no secret the Warriors will do their best to keep LeBron from getting inside and beating them at the rim. The difference for him will likely be his success from further away because the Warriors were the top team in defensive efficiency rating. He’ll need an epic series to get his third title. He is going to face even tougher defense than what he faced in the Eastern Conference.
Kyrie Irving - While most of the talk about the time off has been focused on Klay Thompson (concussion), you could argue the eight days off for Kyrie is more important. He was able to return for Game 4, but he just wasn’t the same. Irving said that rest wasn’t going to help him earlier in the playoffs, but he’s played in only one game since May 22. The extra time should help him get some of that explosion we all know, love and Vine.
All season long, Kyrie has taken his game to new heights on catch-and-shoots. He’s made 48.1 percent from deep in the postseason and his success will be huge to give LeBron space. Furthermore, he’s been absolutely deadly on catch-and-shoot in the postseason, posting a Curry-like 93.8 effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Curry is going to have to stay on him like how his opponents cover him.
Kyrie is going to have to make Curry work on defense to tire him out. Curry’s defense has been tremendous in the postseason (more on that in the GSW section), so we’ll see which trend stops.
Tristan Thompson - Has there been a more pleasant surprise than Thompson this postseason? He was playing just 23.1 minutes per game in April, but that vaulted all the way to 39.3 against the Hawks. Yes, Kevin Love (shoulder) not playing has been helpful to his playing time at power forward, but TT is earning more minutes at center these days.
Thompson’s offensive rebounding rate in the postseason is 13.4, which is Dennis Rodman territory — minus the wedding dress and visits to North Korea. He’s also getting fouled a lot with a 29.4 free throw frequency on his put-back attempts. Although, he’s made just 58.1 percent from the line in the postseason, but that’s below his 64.1 percent from the line in the regular season. That won't be enough to make it a hack-a-Tristan.
With the Warriors being so great at defending bigs, you’d have to think almost all of Thompson’s scoring is going to come off the glass. His minutes will be high and he should get to the line a few times, so we can expect him to be a 9-8 guy for points and boards.
J.R. Smith - After getting all of his haters to pipe down, Smith got piping hot in the postseason. Since returning from his suspension, Smith averaged 15.4 points, 5.8 boards, 1.5 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.6 turnovers and 3.5 treys in 31.4 minutes per game.
Last week, Smith had a great quote on taking what many of us would call “bad shots” from the field. "I'd rather take a contested shot than an open shot any day,” Smith said. "It’s kind of boring when you take open shots.” As it turns out, he’s actually been better. Here’s his closest defender and off-dribble shots from the last eight:
Wow. The 2-of-11 wide open is crazy while his other eFG%s are money. Plus, he’s been en fuego on 1-6 dribbles. Like Kyrie, Smith is going to be very important in helping LeBron space the floor.
Smith is going to play a lot of small forward and he’s also going to be very important on defense. We’ll see if he can stay hot.
One more thing on Swish. I wish I knew who put this on Twitter because it’s just ridiculous:
Iman Shumpert - The other “trash to treasure” brother in the video above, Shumpert’s going to be valuable for one reason: Defense. He’ll probably be on Stephen Curry quite a bit and may also be on Klay, as well. In the postseason, he’s kept his man to just 28.3 percent from 3-point range (60 attempts), so keeping that number low against the Warriors obviously can't be under-appreciated.
His offensive game hasn’t really taken off, making 39.7 percent from the field for averages of 10.1 points, 5.4 boards, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.8 treys. His usage rate hasn’t jumped up often and he’ll likely just get his scoring in transition.
Timofey Mozgov - Tristan Thompson has been outplaying him in a big way, but Mozzy hasn’t been a letdown. His minutes have been hovering around 24 or most games, averaging 9.1 points, 7.2 boards, 1.9 blocks and 0.4 steals in those 14 playoff games. If the Cavs do slow it down, he might get more chances to score in the low post. Although, going against Andrew Bogut or even Festus Ezeli is no picnic.
Matthew Dellavedova - Contrary to what you have heard, Delly has done more than just hurt players. Dellavedova has a rep for being a very good on-ball defender, but he’s going to get a crash course on learning to stick with his man without the ball. Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague do not move well without the ball. Stephen Curry? Notsomuch.
Dellavedova does have a 17.0 usage rate in the postseason, which is way up from his 12.7 in the regular season. Still, if Kyrie is healthy, we won’t see much Delly slicing.
James Jones - He’s seen his playing time increase to 22 minutes per night, but most of those minutes were in garbage time and also because of Kyrie Irving missing time. He’ll be looking at minutes in the mid-teens.
Brendan Haywood - He rocked some pretty sweet Jordan 13 Grey Toes in garbage time in Game 4 vs. the Hawks.
As for the news on Saturday, we finally have an answer in New Orleans. The Pelicans have chosen Alvin Gentry to be their next head coach. He’ll take over shortly after the NBA Finals.
While this probably isn’t the splash many people were hoping for, you could argue Gentry is a better man for the job than Tom Thibodeau or Jeff Van Gundy. Steve Kerr gets all the credit for the Warriors coaching, but Gentry has his fingerprints all over their system. He loves up-tempo, runs a lot of pick-and-roll, and he has been a proponent of extra ball movement.
Anthony Davis in Gentry’s system could be an absolute monster. His assists will likely rise while all of his other stats should see a slight uptick, too. He’ll easily be the best player per game in fantasy next season. The Pelicans really, really need Jrue Holiday to stay healthy because Tyreke Evans isn’t a great PG in Gentry’s system. Again, it’s upticks all around for now until we see what kind of rotation Gentry will run.
Other News
Klay Thompson is expected to play in Game 1. He's not quite symptom-free yet, but coach Steve Kerr doesn't seem worried whatsoever.
The Knicks are reportedly "enamored" with Trey Lyles. Basically, not getting the second pick in the draft really, really hurt them. They'll be looking to make a trade for sure.
Thanks for reading! I'll be back Monday night with the Warriors half.
