This is the End
This is the end, folks.
If you’re still playing right now you’re probably in a Roto league, playing DFS, or decided to take some of the risk out of the final weeks by expanding them in a playoff format. You can pretty much find anything you need on the wire if you’re category hunting. With 14 games tonight and so many different possibilities for playing time in nearly every contest, this is a best-case scenario for DFS ringers to gobble up all the guppies.
I’ll be watching my National Fantasy Basketball Championship entry try to move up one more slot into second place, but I can live with a third place knowing that usually indestructible Russell Westbrook and his injuries this season were essentially the difference for me. This is my biggest entry fee and the largest (public) entry fee I’m aware of. And if I don’t get blown out of the water by Nicolas Batum and Kenneth Faried, I run away with a coulda, shoulda, woulda blowout win.
That makes two medals in three contests (1st, 2nd/3rd) over the last two years for the NFBKC. In my next most important league, a spin-off big money league from the NFBKC including most of the same owners, if I can pull off the comeback of all comebacks I’ll have another 3rd place finish to go with my 1st place finish two years prior.
I compete in the big money contests because I think as an expert you want to play where the best play (and make the most money you can with your limited time). And I also think it helps readers to have that type of evidence when assessing who to invest your time and trust with. Now that I can’t watch a ton of football, I live and die with our football crew because they’ve established that trust with me and I’ve ridden them to big money titles ($30,000 in 09) in the past. I also ride or die with the familiar faces here at Rotoworld Basketball International Headquarters on most valuations and that helps me a lot. At some point you can’t see everything and you need to trust the eyes of other people. Figuring out who they are is half the battle here.
I’ll come out with the Bruski 150 Review at some point here, and I feel good about it but it’s always funny to see how far off some picks go (Kyle O’Quinn anyone?). Hearing talk that Orlando wants to keep him around makes me even more suspicious that he had a random injury all season that nobody bothered to report.
Anyway, as usual it’s a pleasure writing for the smartest readership in the basketball community, and I don’t say that to kiss the mass’ asses. Fantasy players are almost always more knowledgeable so it feels like I deal with a lot less ridiculous noise than my contemporaries. And I’m still waiting for the first G.M. to get wise and start harvesting some of the fantasy talent around here (I’m looking at you new Twitter follower Daryl Morey).
So I’ll be working on ways to continue improving the content here and you can hit me up with any ideas. Enjoy your summer – this is the last Dose of the year and we’ll see you on Twitter for some playoff basketball.
We’re going game-by-game here in an old-fashioned ‘Bruski style’ Dose.
**Note: I wrote this in-between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning so stay glued to the Player News Page and make the necessary adjustments. Also, I can’t account for every punting strategy you might employ. I try to make sure the must-start players listed below can return value for any randomized 5-6 category emphasis in an 8-9 category league.
EAST PLAYOFF SUMMARY
CLINCHED: (1) Hawks, (2) Cavs, (5) Wizards, (6) Bucks, (7) Celtics
JOCKEYING FOR SEEDING: (3) Bulls, (4) Raptors – Bulls up 1.0 games, Raps have tiebreaker
FIGHTING FOR THEIR RIGHT TO PARTY: (8) Pacers, (9) Nets – Pacers up 1.0 games, Nets have tiebreaker
WEST PLAYOFF SUMMARY
CLINCHED: (1) Warriors, Clippers (2-3), Blazers (4), (7) Mavs
JOCKEYING FOR SEEDING:
(2) Spurs – A win tonight gives them the No. 2 seed and an in-state first round matchup with the Mavs. A worst-case scenario of a loss and HOU/MEM wins would drop them to No. 6. They’re probably playing hard.
(5) Rockets – They could move up to the No. 2 seed if the Spurs lose and they win, which would be their best-case scenario in a matchup with Dallas. They can fall as far as the No. 6 seed and a potential matchup against the Clippers, who have emerged as the third-best team in the West heading into the playoff in my opinion. They could also fall to No. 6 and land the Spurs, so needless to say they’ll be playing hard tonight.
(6) Memphis – The Grizzlies can’t go any higher than No. 5 and a win puts them in a better position to play the Blazers, who are also dealing with injury issues. Otherwise every scenario has them playing the Spurs or Clippers. They are so banged up I could see them going either way – resting or gutting it out.
FIGHTING FOR THEIR RIGHT TO PARTY: (8) Pelicans, (9) Thunder – Tied up, New Orleans has the tiebreaker.
HORNETS AT RAPTORS
Must-Start Players: Bismack Biyombo, Kemba Walker
Borderline: Marvin Williams, Gerald Henderson
Hail Mary: Brian Roberts, Troy Daniels, Terrence Ross, Greivis Vasquez
Watch: DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Jonas Valanciunas, Lou Williams
The Raptors start at 7 p.m. ET and they won’t have any insight on how the Bulls are playing, so it stands to reason that they will begin the contest playing to win. They presumably would rather face the young and untested Bucks by getting the No. 3 seed, but somebody like DeRozan (groin) could be handled with kid gloves. The same goes for Lowry and to a lesser degree JV and Sweet Lou. At least Lowry wants to get his rhythm back before the playoffs. The Raptors might think they need all of their guys healthy, and if they think that the Wizards are a better matchup it could be time to get conservative.
Biyombo is rolling and Walker doesn’t like to miss games. Roberts went huge last game and Daniels was solid. I don’t profile the Hornets as rolling over but the younger/bench guys (and Kemba) probably have the most zeal to play today.
HAWKS AT BULLS
Must-Start Players: Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, Derrick Rose
Borderline: Mike Dunleavy
Hail Mary: Mike Muscala, Aaron Brooks, Tony Snell
Watch: All of the Hawks starters, Dennis Schroder, Jimmy Butler, Pau Gasol
The Hawks have nothing to play for and a history of rest, so the whole bench unit will be worth a look depending on how many starters get DNPs. Muscala has shown flashes and has more than enough potential to be considered a strong pickup today. Schroder will be a big play if he goes and Jeff Teague sits. Kent Bazemore is a better sleeper than Shelvin Mack, but the coma-level sleeper here is Austin Daye.
The Bulls are in the driver’s seat for the No. 3 seed so they could pull back on the reins quickly if they jump out to a big lead. Butler hasn’t looked right since returning and he’ll be a candidate for a short-stint, as will Rose, but with Rose at least he has a bunch of incentive to get his mojo back. Joakim Noah is doubtful and the frontcourt is basically set, and the only reason I have Butler and Gasol on the watch list is because they have no clear report stating that they’re in play tonight. Unless they are ruled out they’re also must-start players.
BLAZERS AT MAVS
Must-Start Players: Al-Farouq Aminu
Borderline: Meyers Leonard, Alonzo Gee, Robin Lopez, Joel Freeland, J.J. Barea, Richard Jefferson
Hail Mary: Tim Frazier, Charlie Villanueva, Raymond Felton
Watch: All Mavs, Chris Kaman, LaMarcus Aldridge, Damian Lillard, Steve Blake
I could just as easily put Meyers Leonard in the Hail Mary or even the must-start category under the impression that Lopez and Aldridge aren’t going to play a ton of minutes. He’s a legit 3-point shooting threat and has plenty of energy and athleticism, but also has a history of disappearing and will see his touches decrease with LMA around. Aldridge owners can be happy, though, with the team’s desire to get him some rhythm in their last game. Lillard has a 15-20 minute game written all over him, and I think they’ll turn to Frazier for heavy minutes. Look for an inefficient but potentially bountiful outing of him.
The Mavs have nothing to play for and Aminu is one of the few players with the athletic profile to give them good minutes in precautionary mode. Rajon Rondo has an outside shot of surviving to play tonight because the Mavs need him to continue gaining confidence. Jefferson has a Hail Mary quality to his game if he is tapped, since the team will lack scorers. Barea goes into the must-start category real quick if you’re hunting the popcorn categories. Villanueva was built for games like this. Six triples aren’t out of the question on a big night.
JAZZ AT ROCKETS
Must-Start Players: James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Terrence Jones, Josh Smith, Rudy Gobert, Trevor Booker, Rodney Hood
Borderline: Joe Ingles, Dante Exum, Jason Terry
Hail Mary: Bryce Cotton, Corey Brewer
Watch: Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Trey Burke
There is no reason to push Favors so if I had to bet I’d say he doesn’t play tonight, though it’s been quiet on the front and with Hayward the Jazz have been forthcoming about his doubtful status. Either way I think Gobert wants to put an exclamation point on his season and just so I can say it one more time he’s the NBA’s next great big man. Hood barely scooted by for owners on a disappointing night on Monday, but he has looked great in general and will handle the ball a lot. Not sure if the Jazz want Burke coming back to eat into Exum’s minutes, but he’s probable and would be worth a fairly hard look in a competitive situation. Exum is likely to get enough minutes to make late-round value a better than coin flip chance. Cotton scored 21 points on Monday and he and Johnson might be the hungriest guys on the floor not named Gobert.
The Rockets need to win so they’ll play a full load and they’ll try to put the Jazz away early so they can rest but Utah is the opposite of ‘checked out.’ If they can do that, Brewer has big game written all over him.
CELTICS AT BUCKS
Must-Start Players: Isaiah Thomas, Michael Carter-Williams, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton
Borderline: You can make a case that all of the Celtics are borderline plays, Ersan Ilyasova
Hail Mary: Evan Turner, Marcus Smart, Jared Sullinger, John Henson
Watch: The entire Bucks starting five
Avery Bradley isn’t playing tonight and if I had to guess Brad Steven is going to try and find a way to give each of his guards around 24 minutes. In fact, the whole team trends toward that type of setup with few veterans screaming for rest and no need to push anybody too hard in a meaningless game. Thomas is only a must-start player if he goes because of his insane fantasy potential.
The Bucks are a younger team so they theoretically both need and can handle the reps of a season finale game, but this is Jason Kidd we’re talking about here. Anybody using any Bucks players have to be glued to the news all day long. Michael Carter-Williams needs more reps so he’s among the safer plays, and his backups in Jerryd Bayless and O.J. Mayo have been banged up this season. Ersan Ilyasova usually needs some rest, Zaza Pachulia isn’t a spring chicken, and that means John Henson could be due for a big game. If the rest of the Bucks starters play they’re deadly enough to be must-start players even in limited duty.
THUNDER AT TIMBERWOLVES
Must-Start Players: Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter, Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Steven Adams, Anthony Morrow
Borderline: Adreian Payne, Lorenzo Brown
Hail Mary: Dion Waiters, Robbie Hummel
Watch: Chase Budinger, Justin Hamilton, Kevin Martin
NOTES: The Thunder are going to bring whatever they have and throw it down on the table tonight, but really this shouldn’t be a contest and it’s on the Pelicans to beat a Spurs team that needs to win. The Thunder fantasy assets won’t sit until they have a 20-point lead under 5:00 in the fourth quarter. Use them as you normally would and the Wolves aren’t exactly scaring anybody with their lack of players to fill out a lineup.
If Budinger and Hamilton can’t go, I wouldn’t be surprised if Martin got pulled back from vacation plans to give them at least 20 minutes. If not, you could almost use any of their active players and expect some sort of low-end line. Wiggins should also go for some sort of exclamation point with Rookie of the Year voters. We forgot to give that award out, but we gave out the rest of them the other day on our podcast (more on that at the bottom of the article). LaVine should also play with reckless abandon tonight against his body double in Westbrook.
SPURS AT PELICANS
Must-Start Players: Anthony Davis, Tyreke Evans, Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, Danny Green
Borderline: Eric Gordon, Tony Parker, Boris Diaw, Cory Joseph, Aron Baynes
Hail Mary: Ryan Anderson, Marco Belinelli
Watch: Jrue Holiday
The Spurs profile like a team that wouldn’t care about their opponent and also like a team that would want the rest. They’ll try to get some rest in tonight’s marquee game, but they need to win and get a matchup against the Mavs that makes sense on paper – even if Dallas pushed them as hard as anybody in last year’s playoffs. The Spurs can also drop to No. 6 if everything breaks the wrong way for them tonight, and you’ll probably see them bring a couple of extra role players into more prominent roles. I’d probably fade all the Spurs in DFS games tonight. Baynes looks like a solid bet for low-end value. I’m not exactly confident about listing Bello in the Hail Mary department. Joseph went for 13-4-4 on Sunday and that seems like a decent expectation tonight.
Gordon almost got a nod in the must-start department after a few good games and everything ready to be laid out on the line for New Orleans. Anderson hasn’t been able to stay on the floor since returning and the Spurs are disciplined, but if you need a lot of threes and the wire is bare he can hit a bunch in a hurry.
MAGIC AT NETS
Must-Start Players: Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Elfrid Payton, Brook Lopez, Deron Williams
Borderline: Thaddeus Young, Bojan Bogdanovic
Hail Mary: Aaron Gordon, Joe Johnson
Watch: Evan Fournier
The Magic could easily come out and treat tonight like a playoff game as spoilers of the Nets’ plans. RFA Harris is also playing for a big league-wide audience. Gordon could be given a directive to build off his 2-of-14 shooting night including six boards, two steals and two blocks in 32 minutes on Monday. In a DFS league he’ll have a built-in profit margin with no real attention on him lately. I put Fournier in the watch category because if the Magic want him to see the floor one more time this year then he’ll be an irritant to everybody’s value.
The Nets had been playing over their heads before sputtering this past week. They’re basically out of gas and though I listed both Lopez and Williams in the must-start category I don’t feel good about betting on any of them to exceed their numbers from the past 2-3 weeks. At the same time, Johnson has been mostly bad this month and he could go big in a game like this. Young should be in most lineups.
WIZARDS AT CAVS
Must-Start Players: None unless the rest issues are cleared up.
Borderline: Tristan Thompson, Matthew Dellavedova
Hail Mary: Otto Porter Jr., Ramon Sessions, Kevin Seraphin
Watch: All of the Wizards starters are at risk, as well as any bench veterans, LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, Timofey Mozgov
Randy Wittman could march into pregame availability and say everybody’s playing 40 minutes tonight and for as ludicrous as that would be it wouldn’t shock me. But let’s be clear, he’s not going to do that. He’s probably going to pick a couple of starters to play 20-25 minutes and roll with anybody whose body isn’t old and/or breaking down. Porter and Sessions could be particularly sneaky plays once they announce their inactives. Seraphin isn’t trustworthy at all but somewhere inside him is a sneaky DFS play.
Smith and Shumpert could do some damage if they’re left on the floor to mop up 25-30 minutes. Thompson hasn’t been given a ton of minutes lately and he could step into a 30-minute night pretty easily. Like a lot of playoff teams with nothing to play for tonight, any Cavs starter that plays tonight could easily get stuck with a 24-minute night.
PISTONS AT KNICKS
Must-Start Players: Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe, Langston Galloway
Borderline: Jodie Meeks, Shane Larkin
Hail Mary: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Caron Butler, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jason Smith, Cole Aldrich,
Watch: The Knicks screw up tanking
The Pistons are in danger of having their bags packed for vacation, but don’t expect Jackson to take the night off. He’s been waiting for this moment his entire life and he’s savoring every bit of it. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope doesn’t play well on the road but given the matchup and the fact Detroit probably wants him to get off in this final game – I like him as a Hail Mary play. Meeks has been so bad this year and you’d think he has some big game potential, but Butler might be a better upside play after his six 3-pointer night on Monday. Monroe is playing at the Garden and he’s all-but signed there according to one mildly controversial rumor. Bottom line – he probably wants to put on a good show.
Can the Knicks win two in a row and completely alienate their tanking fan base? A New York win and Philly loss would move them into a tie for 2/3 in lottery odds. Galloway is the only safe play here and he’s coming off a career-game. I like him in DFS formats. Every Knicks player listed in the Hail Mary section has had a big game and an absolute bomb within arm’s reach of one another. This game screams garbage time and those tend to produce lots of activity statistics.
HEAT AT SIXERS
Must-Start Players: Robert Covington, Ish Smith
Borderline: Hollis Thompson, Henry Sims, Thomas Robinson
Hail Mary: Tyler Johnson, Mario Chalmers, Henry Walker, James Ennis, JaKarr Sampson, Jerami Grant
Watch: Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic, Luol Deng, Dwyane Wade, Chris Andersen, Nerlens Noel
I’m going to ignore the fact that neither team wants to win this game because they’ll lose a draft pick. That’s just crazy weird. The players aren’t going to care once they’re on the floor and it’ll be a spectacular display of pseudo-tanking by both sides.
Regardless, look for a mighty letdown tonight from the Heat and that’s if the starters and typical vets even see the floor after falling out of playoff contention. Factor in how beat up they all are and I’d be shocked if this wasn’t a Summer League game in the making. I don’t know how Johnson’s ankle is, but he’s been waiting to explode so if he’s getting the warm and fuzzies I like him as a Hail Mary play. Chalmers on the other hand, not so much. I could see Walker stepping into multiple threes if he plays. Ennis needs the trashiest of games to make an impact. If Whiteside plays, I’d have a hard time sitting him. Dragic too.
The Sixers will try to finish the season strong and if Noel gets the nod then he’s a must-start guy. Covington is on a mission right now to handle the rock as much as possible. Smith is back so Sampson loses a lot of appeal as a Hail Mary. With Grant you just hope he puts everything together on the same night. Smith struggled the last time out but this is a pretty good matchup.
PACERS AT GRIZZLIES
Must-Start Players: George Hill, C.J. Miles, David West
Borderline: Paul George, Roy Hibbert, Rodney Stuckey
Hail Mary: Beno Udrih
Watch: All of the Grizzlies starters
This is your battle of beat up teams and both have something to play for. For the Pacers it’s their playoff existence, and the Grizzlies might be better off resting but they still could get a better playoff matchup with a win tonight, angling toward the Blazers instead of the Spurs or Clippers. The Pacers are coming off a double-OT back-to-back and with their legs and health a question, I’d have a hard time trusting them to exceed their 2-3 week production levels. Miles has been red hot and I don’t think I could bench him even though he has to slow down at some point.
None of the main Grizzlies have been impressive in fantasy leagues and their backups are way too risky to trust. Beno is the only one I can get behind in a DFS league or otherwise because he sometimes takes advantage of moments when everybody rests.
NUGGETS AT WARRIORS
Must-Start Players: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Kenneth Faried, Wilson Chandler
Borderline: David Lee, Shaun Livingston, Festus Ezeli, Harrison Barnes
Hail Mary: Will Barton, Jusuf Nurkic, Justin Holiday, Leandro Barbosa, Marreese Speights
Watch: Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari, Randy Foye, Jameer Nelson, Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala
The Nuggets could easily be checked out by now but Melvin Hunt seems to have them playing hard most of the time. Lawson is going to be such an intriguing target for Sacramento and George Karl, as the talent is there but the durability is probably heading the wrong direction and he hasn’t had a great year off-the-court either. That he has missed random games down the stretch isn’t great news, so Kings fans reading this be discerning when all those front-office sponsored hype pieces hit the newsstands with stunning precision later this summer. Hunt has been riding the vets so if they’re active they’re going to be hard to sit. Foye and Chandler are coming off of massive games with Lawson and Gallo out, and Gallo has been unconscious when he plays lately. If there was ever a game for Barton to be let free it would be the last one of the year. Nurkic matches up well with enough GSW bigs to where he has a shot at surprising us, though I’m not sure he’s healthy.
Steve Kerr has said he wants to keep the guys on their edge so it sounds like most of them will play but limited minutes are likely in my opinion. Still, there should be enough relief on the rotation that Warriors guys in the ‘borderline’ category can get enough minutes to have a decent shot at late-round value. Barbosa thrives in garbage time and Speights could take advantage of Denver’s invisible defense. Holiday has the young legs and most pure upside of the Dubs in this Hail Mary group. Just make sure there’s some indication he’s getting extra time otherwise he’s insanely risky to use.
KINGS AT LAKERS
Must-Start Players: Omri Casspi, Jordan Clarkson, Ryan Kelly
Borderline: Ray McCallum, Jason Thompson, Derrick Williams, Tarik Black, Carlos Boozer
Hail Mary: Ben McLemore, Jordan Hill, Jabari Brown, Ed Davis
Watch: Some terrible basketball
This Kings team and specifically most of the players can’t wait for this season to end. They’re pissed at the front office and now there are rumors that Pete D’Alessandro might keep his job, which won’t be popular in that locker room according to multiple sources. Casspi came down with some stomach illness and Evans it already out with a thumb injury as the home-and-home series shifts to the playground in L.A. Casspi and those close to D’Alessandro have been pushing hard to highlight Casspi’s sudden surge because it’s one of his few good deals this past year, and he wants to stay in Sacramento so he might come out and drop another doozy on the Lakers. If he’s active, I’d be all about using him in a DFS or daily league. McCallum and Thompson are better than most ‘borderline’ plays I’ve listed. They’re almost guaranteed to have low-end numbers but on a busy night that’s far from must-start territory. Williams is so one-dimensional and terrible in standard leagues I can’t get excited about anything he has done, but he’s a pretty good bet to have low-end value. McLemore is the guy everybody in Sacramento wants to see get going but he still has some mental hurdles to overcome according to NBA sources.
I know Clarkson tweaked his ankle and is questionable, but the Lakers don’t have any replacement players. Unless he’s ruled out he’s a must-start guy. I have Kelly in the must-start category and he is coming off a stinker on Monday vs. the same team. He’ll most likely have the same problem of not being at his preferred PF position. The Kings are terrible at defending the three and there’s simply too much upside to sit in my opinion. Hill and Davis are obvious boom-or-bust guys. The Lakers are banged up enough to ensure Black and Boozer low-end numbers if they play.
PLAYOFF PREVIEWS
I’ll be podcasting playoff previews for all eight series and it’s possible we might have a media guest from each city to give their insight. We’ve already confirmed some big names and whether you’re betting, doing a playoff fantasy league, or just want to get your picks right it should be must-listen stuff. You can check it out here and (even better) subscribe to it on iTunes right here.
