Deadline Fallout: Part 1
We're just two and a half days from the July trade deadline. Already, two closers have lost their jobs - one completely undeservedly. Poor Drew Storen broke out this season only to be ousted by division rival Jonathan Papelbon. Who saw that coming? It wasn't as difficult to predict the Mets acquiring Tyler Clippard. They were always rumored to be among the top suitors.
There are still a couple ninth inning guys on the market. As you would expect, today will be focused on trades, possible swaps, and fallout. I have my MLBTR feed running on TweetDeck, so all news should be up-to-date at the time of publishing. In fact, Mat Latos to the Dodgers broke as I wrote the last sentence.
Speed guys could also find themselves on the move. So far, the Angels and Rockies have acquired the speediest players of trade season – Shane Victorino and Jose Reyes. Victorino stole 21 bases as recently as 2013, but he's struggled to stay on the field since then. The league-wide stolen base success rate is hovering just below 70 percent. Michael Taylor, A.J. Pollock, and Alexei Ramirez tied for the best week on the bases with three steals in three attempts. Nobody was caught stealing more than once.
Tier 1: Elite (4)
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Andrew Miller, New York Yankees
Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
Two of the four elites are the subject of trade talks. Inertia may keep Chapman and Kimbrel in their respective uniforms, but there are definitely teams trying to work out a swap. The asking price for Chapman is said to be steep – certainly more than the third tier prospects swapped for Papelbon and Clippard. It's hard to gauge what the Padres want in return for Kimbrel – probably a single high quality prospect.
Chapman took his fourth loss of the season last Wednesday. He's since appeared twice without incident. Kimbrel locked down three saves on consecutive days. Jansen picked up a save in two scoreless appearances. Miller pitched twice. He allowed a home run, but he still saved both games.
For handcuffs, monitor J.J. Hoover in Cincinnati. The Padres are discussing Kimbrel, Shawn Kelley, and Joaquin Benoit. Brandon Maurer may be next in line even if Kelley and Benoit remain with the club. Benoit is an August trade candidate too.
Tier 2: The Upside Crowd (7)
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins
Unlike the elite tier, nobody from Tier 2 is on the trade block. Robertson had a bizarre week for the White Sox. He appeared three times and allowed a run in two of the outings. In the game he didn't cough up a run, he blew the save via inherited runner. He saved the two games in which he did allow a run.
Britton had a solid week despite allowing a solo home run. He appeared three times and converted his only save opportunity. Melancon saved two and picked up a win in three outings. He leads the league with 32 saves.
The Mets bullpen experienced some turmoil this week. Familia blew the save on Sunday. Then on Monday, New York acquired Clippard. While they were finalizing the deal, they learned setup man Jenrry Mejia was suspended for the next 162 games. Mejia was already ineligible for the postseason. The job still belongs to Familia, but Clippard owners should hang on for a week or so. If Familia slumps, Clippard could see some save opportunities.
Rosenthal has recently shown some signs of fatigue. The Cardinals are responding by giving him extra rest. We can expect a few save opportunities for Kevin Siegrist over the rest of the season. The Cardinals acquired Steve Cishek to serve as additional depth. Jordan Walden should be back in action soon too.
Ramos recovered from a blown save against the Phillies last week to lock down three saves. All season, I've warned you about the potential for regression in his walk rate. He handed out two free passes last night. If he falters, expect Carter Capps to take the job and never look back.
Tier 3: The Mid-Tier (8)
Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies
Jonathan Papelbon, Washington Nationals
Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros
I considered debuting Giles in Tier 2. He has the stuff for it with 10.88 K/9 and 4.03 BB/9 in 44.2 innings. Ultimately, I decided the occasionally shaky command introduces a little too much risk for now. To be fair, if we remove the first game of the season, he has a 3.48 BB/9. That's right in line with Kimbrel. Next in line after Giles is Luis Garcia. He's the only other Phillies reliever with a save this season.
In 39.2 innings, Papelbon has just 17 saves. Expect that rate to spike dramatically with the Nationals. It's a nice little value boost for the veteran. The big loser in the trade is Storen. He's ever so slightly outpitched Papelbon this season, and he's projected to be nearly identical over the remainder of the season. Between their rotation and the back end of the bullpen, it's going to be hard to score against the Nationals.
When a pitcher outperforms his peripherals for most of a season then blows up for a week, I call it a regression week. In three outings, Perkins allowed five runs on three home runs. His 2.41 ERA is still about a run below his projections. That's a little misleading since he's a low BABIP pitcher with a high fly ball rate. His place is in the midst of Tier 3 is secure.
Speaking of regression outings, Street allowed three runs and a homer on Sunday. He's had a solid season with a 2.87 ERA, 8.84 K/9, and 2.63 BB/9. Rodriguez gave up a run while recording two saves. He's supposedly on the trade block, but there have been very few rumors related to him. He may be an August trade candidate.
Gregerson pitched three times but totaled just two innings. He picked up two saves and one blown save. Like Robertson, Gregerson's blown save came via inherited runner. The Astros are said to be one of the top candidates to land Chapman or Kimbrel. Obviously, either pitcher would oust Gregerson.
Tier 4: Questions (4)
Brad Boxberger, Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays
Shawn Tolleson, Texas Rangers
Joakim Soria Detroit Tigers
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
The MLBTR Twitter feed paid off. As of this writing, the Rays are shopping Brad Boxberger. Rival executives believe they are just gauging value rather than seeking an actual trade. Boxberger earned a loss and a save in the last week. McGee added a save and a hold. Expect the pair to continue sharing saves.
Tolleson saved three games in four days. The Rangers don't seem inclined to jump into the reliever market despite an obvious need for high leverage arms. They're only five games back in the AL Wild Card race, but they're also five games below .500. A relief addition probably won't save the season.
For most of the year, I considered Soria the most likely veteran closer to lose his job at the trade deadline. The Tigers have lost three straight games, making them increasingly likely to sell. In fact, Soria could be on the block now or in August. Detroit has nobody waiting in the wings. Al Alburquerque is the next best option. Neftali Feliz and Bruce Rondon are also present. These are all bottom of Tier 5 relievers.
Tier 5: Roller Coasters (7)
Roberto Osuna, Aaron Sanchez, LaTroy Hawkins, Toronto Blue Jays
Carson Smith, Fernando Rodney, Seattle Mariners
Jim Johnson, Atlanta Braves
Jason Motte, Hector Rondon, Rafael Soriano, Chicago Cubs
Edward Mujica, Fernando Rodriguez, Oakland Athletics
John Axford, Colorado Rockies
Brad Ziegler, Arizona Diamondbacks
Osuna took his fourth loss last Wednesday, but the Jays called upon him again on Saturday without any hiccups. Toronto has moved Sanchez to the bullpen where he profiles as a high leverage arm. The club also acquired Hawkins. His experience could push him into a ninth inning role.
Smith appeared four times this week. He earned the following: no decision, save, loss, loss. He's walked six batters in his last 3.2 innings. I consider this a momentary blip, but he already had a tenuous grasp on the job. Manager Lloyd McClendon says Rodney is tipping his pitches. If so, we could see him back in the ninth inning soon. Seattle is out of contention. It behooves them financially to use Rodney in the ninth instead of Smith.
I've heard that Johnson will be traded. The Braves won't receive much in return, so it wouldn't shock me if all deals fell through. He's quite mediocre, but he's avoided home runs and walks this season. He should fit as a solid sixth or seventh inning reliever with a contender. Arodys Vizcaino is assumed to be the next in line.
The confusion in Chicago continues. Motte pitched poorly, and his shiny ERA went bye-bye. After allowing four runs in three innings, it should be more obvious that he's a sixth inning guy. Soriano allowed four runs in 3.2 innings. He's not any better. Rondon is clearly the best reliever in this bullpen. Pedro Strop is the next best. Justin Grimm is third best. This is a frustrating group to cover. Neil Ramirez is back on the disabled list.
With Clippard out of the picture, Mujica will ascend to the ninth inning in Oakland. He's definitely not the best reliever in the A's bullpen, but there are financial reasons to use him there. Drew Pomeranz is making spot starts and would earn more money via arbitration if he closed games. Rodriguez, 30, is arbitration eligible for the first time after this season. He's the obvious best choice with 11.40 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, and a 3.60 ERA.
Anyone hoping Hawkins would take Axford's job will have to resort to Plan B (I assume Hawkins was actually Plan N). Axford's last four outings have been ugly. Three of those occurred in the last week. Opponents pushed five runs across the plate with the help of two run runs. He took two losses, two blown saves, and one vulture win. Tommy Kahnle has the velocity (96 mph) and strikeout rate (11.51 K/9) to close. He also walks too many batters (5.56 BB/9).
Ziegler has also appeared in trade rumors. I expect the Diamondbacks to prefer keeping him. He has a 2016 option for $5.5 million. Ziegler notched a couple saves and allowed an irrelevant run in a third outing.
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Injured
Joe Nathan, Detroit Tigers
Adam Ottavino, Colorado Rockies
Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics
Jason Grilli, Atlanta Braves
The Deposed
Chad Qualls
Joaquin Benoit
LaTroy Hawkins
Miguel Castro
Steve Cishek
Addison Reed
Neftali Feliz
Fernando Rodney
Hector Rondon
Brett Cecil
Jenrry Mejia
Drew Storen
Tyler Clippard
Oh poor Drew Storen. I can't think of a better closer losing his job in recent memory. Oh wait, sure I can – Joaquin Benoit. Clippard has always been on that border between great eighth inning guy and fringy closer. He'll go back to where he's great.
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The Steals Department
We touched upon Victorino in the introduction. He isn't much of a speed threat these days. The top burner on the market is probably Ben Revere. I anticipate the Phillies to keep Revere unless he's part of a Cole Hamels trade. His defensive value will help Phillies pitchers to develop. If Revere is traded, I have to imagine his value will decline. Philadelphia bats him atop the lineup and lets him run wild. A Revere trade could open the door for prospect Aaron Altherr. In 403 plate appearances, he has 12 home runs and 14 steals split across Double-A and Triple-A.
After a terrible start to the season, Adam Eaton is showing signs of a breakout. Since the start of June, Eaton has six steals, six home runs, five triples, and seven doubles in 212 plate appearances (.280/.373/.473). He bats leadoff. It's no wonder the White Sox offense has resurrected itself. He's still available in 62 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Eaton's teammate, Tyler Saladino, is batting second on a regular basis. He's yet to swipe a base in 67 plate appearances, but he stole 25 in 231 plate appearances at Triple-A. Saladino has strong contact rates, but it looks like he's a little over-matched in the majors. If your league is sufficiently deep, he's a decent speculative pick.
Circling back to Reyes, I'm curious to see how he responds to playing in Colorado. The spacious field should help his spray hitting approach. However, the rarefied air is associated with increased injury risk. As we know, Reyes has trouble staying on the field. I could see Reyes picking up his steal rate with a weaker lineup behind him.
